Win rate
85.8%
248 W / 41 L
Total PnL
$328
realized $-4,943 · unrealized $5,271
Portfolio
$5,271
volume $40,476
Predictions
362
8.7/day · avg $112
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 07/06/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Tech 85% +$195
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI IPO before 2027? | Yes | 45¢ | 36¢ | $-6 | loss |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 78¢ | $-2 | loss |
| GPT-5.5 released by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 92¢ | 97¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Amazon have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of December 29 above $330? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will GPT-6 be released by December 31? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Meta have a #1 AI model this year? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Other 90% +$182
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2025? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | No | 86¢ | 52¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? | No | 88¢ | 94¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Claude go down 3-5 times in April? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 4 and 7 on April 12, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | loss |
| Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Crypto 88% +$124
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026? | No | 88¢ | 94¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | No | 80¢ | 50¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? | No | 98¢ | 97¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? | No | 97¢ | 95¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 9? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Solana all time high by March 31, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in January? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Mentions 92% +$34
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026? | No | 85¢ | 98¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | No | 93¢ | 95¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Sports 80% +$5
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 6¢ | 5¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 86¢ | 89¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2025? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Economy 100% +$1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Finance 55% $-26
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | No | 85¢ | 48¢ | $-25 | loss |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? | Yes | 93¢ | 90¢ | $-1 | loss |
| xAI IPO in 2025? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy in 2025? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% in 2025? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Geopolitics 81% $-75
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | Yes | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 56¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | 87¢ | 90¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 86¢ | 91¢ | +$15 | win |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | No | 78¢ | 78¢ | +$0 | — |
| US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026? | No | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 98¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026? | No | 92¢ | 96¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Israel annex any territory by June 30? | No | 88¢ | 89¢ | +$0 | win |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 97¢ | +$2 | win |
Politics 77% $-82
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? | No | 86¢ | 88¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026? | No | 80¢ | 80¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 81¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will White House post 200+ posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 95¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $78 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 94.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $37 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $108 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $52 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $69 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $99 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $30 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | $-10 | $97 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will White House post 200+ posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 95.0¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | $48 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 96.6¢ | 0¢ | $-48 | $48 | 17/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $88 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $49 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $29 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $49 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $69 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $59 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $29 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $59 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $39 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $25 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $69 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $39 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $30 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | $-8 | $158 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 4 and 7 on April 12, 2026? | No | 97.8¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | $49 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? | No | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $148 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $49 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $40 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Khamenei post 45-49 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 81.2¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $32 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $127 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $78 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $128 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 95.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $29 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $79 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $99 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $29 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $39 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $50 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $40 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $30 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $40 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will CZ post 40-59 posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 94.0¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | $38 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 9? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $40 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $30 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $98 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | No | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $48 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | No | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $48 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $84 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $38 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $98 | 07/04/2026 |