Win rate
63.2%
254 W / 148 L
Total PnL
$12,519
realized $4,127 · unrealized $8,392
Portfolio
$8,392
volume $1,264,888
Predictions
452
12.7/day · avg $2,798
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 20/10/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 68% +$8,157
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-235 | loss |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 55¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| US x Cuba military clash in 2026? | Yes | 37¢ | 44¢ | +$39 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 49¢ | 0¢ | +$29 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 42¢ | 30¢ | +$3 | win |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 37¢ | 28¢ | $-246 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 61¢ | 70¢ | +$490 | win |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | Yes | 10¢ | 41¢ | $-2 | loss |
Other 63% +$1,434
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? | No | 17¢ | 68¢ | +$12 | win |
| Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | +$13 | win |
| StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 75¢ | 92¢ | +$11 | win |
| Lighter FDV above $3B one day after launch? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Yes | 50¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | No | 73¢ | 76¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? | Yes | 25¢ | 22¢ | $-3 | loss |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 63¢ | 58¢ | +$77 | win |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | No | 34¢ | 32¢ | +$14 | win |
Sports 68% +$1,246
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 90¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | +$46 | win |
| Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | No | 50¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March? | Yes | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$110 | win |
| Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.6% in March? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$24 | win |
| LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs | BNK FEARX | 47¢ | 100¢ | +$106 | win |
| Rockets vs. Magic | Magic | 42¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | loss |
| Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
| Clippers vs. Rockets | Rockets | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Spurs vs. Lakers | Lakers | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
Politics 64% +$1,018
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | Yes | 25¢ | 16¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | No | 14¢ | 16¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | Yes | 15¢ | 12¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 59¢ | 40¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | No | 45¢ | 40¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | No | 85¢ | 76¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026? | Yes | 34¢ | 18¢ | +$2 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 94¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 32¢ | 7¢ | $-1 | loss |
Elections 65% +$349
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | No | 96¢ | 97¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Yes | 63¢ | 94¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? | Yes | 67¢ | 85¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 31¢ | 15¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? | No | 9¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will CD win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election? | Yes | 27¢ | 2¢ | +$102 | win |
| Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will CD win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election? | No | 73¢ | 98¢ | $-82 | loss |
| Will CD win the second most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election? | Yes | 66¢ | 90¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 59¢ | +$15 | win |
Crypto 62% +$214
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 9¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will Paradex launch a token by March 31 2026? | No | 50¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 68¢ | 5¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Paradex launch a token by June 30 2026? | Yes | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | 50¢ | 91¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Exponent launch a token by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 47¢ | 18¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Theo launch a token by March 31 2026? | Yes | 59¢ | 0¢ | $-68 | loss |
| Will Tempo launch a token by December 31 2026? | Yes | 59¢ | 28¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? | Yes | 11¢ | 7¢ | +$3 | win |
Weather 45% +$198
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 27? | Yes | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 26? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 25? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on March 23? | No | 76¢ | 0¢ | $-68 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 23? | Yes | 19¢ | 100¢ | +$96 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 22? | Yes | 49¢ | 100¢ | +$87 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C or higher on March 21? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 21? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on March 21? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 20? | Yes | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$119 | win |
Finance 71% +$40
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? | No | 22¢ | 6¢ | +$35 | win |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 78¢ | 94¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day? | No | 95¢ | 96¢ | +$1 | win |
| SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? | Yes | 64¢ | 95¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 92¢ | 92¢ | +$6 | win |
Culture 100% +$11
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Tech 36% $-57
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? | No | 50¢ | 78¢ | +$117 | win |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? | Yes | 50¢ | 22¢ | $-117 | loss |
| OpenAI IPO before 2027? | Yes | 50¢ | 38¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | No | 50¢ | 38¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 54¢ | 62¢ | $-160 | loss |
| Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
| Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10? | No | 24¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | No | 50¢ | 64¢ | +$186 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bodø/Glimt reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | Yes | 87.0¢ | 0¢ | $-52 | $52 | 16/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 12.5¢ | 0¢ | +$851 | $2,219 | 15/04/2026 |
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? | No | 58.4¢ | 0¢ | +$96 | $462 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 72.9¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | $612 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 57.9¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $2,028 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 96.1¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $394 | 15/04/2026 |
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 55.0¢ | 100¢ | $-22 | $184 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 85.9¢ | 0¢ | $-278 | $16,831 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 32.9¢ | 8¢ | $-395 | $1,266 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 86.9¢ | 92¢ | $-316 | $3,344 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 13, 2026? | Yes | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $336 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12? | Yes | 46.4¢ | 0¢ | +$17 | $108 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? | Yes | 67.4¢ | 85¢ | +$13 | $216 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 12, 2026? | Yes | 95.8¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $292 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? | No | 16.2¢ | 0¢ | +$7 | $20 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 4 and 7 on April 12, 2026? | Yes | 21.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $23 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 30.6¢ | 15¢ | $-6 | $98 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? | Yes | 95.6¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $474 | 11/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 89.8¢ | 100¢ | +$130 | $2,287 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March? | Yes | 63.0¢ | 100¢ | +$110 | $1,429 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $113 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.6% in March? | Yes | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | +$24 | $26 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 3.3¢ | 0¢ | +$31 | $108 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 36.8¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $699 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Yes | 2.5¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | $238 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 54.5¢ | 92¢ | $-48 | $197 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 18.8¢ | 8¢ | $-307 | $2,137 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 7.5¢ | 0¢ | +$193 | $784 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 1-7, 2026 (ET)? | No | 70.3¢ | 100¢ | +$447 | $1,216 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran during the week of March 29-April 4, 2026 (ET)? | No | 96.2¢ | 100¢ | +$106 | $2,790 | 04/04/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 19.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1,009 | $657 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? | Yes | 25.3¢ | 100¢ | +$709 | $793 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026? | Yes | 36.4¢ | 100¢ | +$597 | $500 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? | No | 66.6¢ | 100¢ | +$384 | $2,233 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | 7.0¢ | 0¢ | +$304 | $623 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? | No | 74.6¢ | 100¢ | +$245 | $2,317 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? | No | 86.9¢ | 100¢ | +$242 | $3,191 | 31/03/2026 |
| US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | No | 82.5¢ | 100¢ | +$175 | $2,148 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 38.9¢ | 0¢ | +$83 | $302 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | No | 81.6¢ | 100¢ | +$75 | $1,764 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31? | Yes | 63.4¢ | 100¢ | +$71 | $956 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? | Yes | 18.6¢ | 0¢ | +$67 | $275 | 31/03/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? | No | 10.9¢ | 0¢ | +$65 | $46 | 31/03/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 27.0¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | $178 | 31/03/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends by March 25, 2026? | No | 87.7¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | $351 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? | No | 42.6¢ | 0¢ | +$34 | $143 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)? | Yes | 20.2¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | $280 | 31/03/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 68.0¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | $190 | 31/03/2026 |
| US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31? | No | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $85 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 7? | Yes | 1.4¢ | 0¢ | +$30 | $48 | 31/03/2026 |