Win rate
58.7%
71 W / 50 L
Total PnL
$-21
realized $-2,765 · unrealized $2,744
Portfolio
$2,744
volume $78,308
Predictions
246
3.6/day · avg $318
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 11/11/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Politics 71% +$178
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? | Yes | 51¢ | 64¢ | +$44 | win |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? | Yes | 46¢ | 50¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? | Yes | 13¢ | 12¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026? | No | 40¢ | 76¢ | +$39 | win |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? | No | 23¢ | 24¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | 91¢ | 99¢ | +$17 | win |
| Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | Yes | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1? | No | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by January 31? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$55 | win |
Other 59% +$79
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? | No | 39¢ | 90¢ | +$51 | win |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 30¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | 56¢ | 56¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? | Yes | 10¢ | 8¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will USD/JPY hit 170 (High) in 2026? | No | 58¢ | 68¢ | +$21 | win |
| ECB rate cut in 2026? | No | 62¢ | 77¢ | +$28 | win |
| Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | No | 61¢ | 80¢ | +$32 | win |
| Will USD/JPY hit 150 (Low) in 2026? | Yes | 56¢ | 48¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? | Yes | 77¢ | 90¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? | Yes | 66¢ | 60¢ | $-9 | loss |
Elections 100% +$69
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 3¢ | 4¢ | +$16 | win |
| French election called by June 30, 2026? | No | 72¢ | 95¢ | +$22 | win |
Geopolitics 50% +$46
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Yes | 44¢ | 76¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | Yes | 42¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 43¢ | 30¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | Yes | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | win |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 40¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? | Yes | 12¢ | 8¢ | +$0 | win |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 17¢ | 14¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 6¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | Yes | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$59 | win |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by April 30, 2026? | No | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
Sports 60% +$39
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M and 100M views in its first 7 days? | Yes | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | win |
| Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get between 30 and 40 million views on day 1? | No | 32¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | win |
| Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get between 50 and 60 million views on day 1? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will monthly inflation be between 2.6% and 2.8% in January? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Will the U.K.'s annual inflation increase by ≥3.4% in December? | No | 59¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | loss |
Crypto 67% +$38
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? | Yes | 43¢ | 28¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 January 5-11? | Yes | 47¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | win |
Tech 67% +$30
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 95¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$58 | win |
| Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | loss |
Finance 0% $-18
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 59¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | loss |
Economy 50% $-124
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 73¢ | 99¢ | +$29 | win |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 34¢ | 7¢ | $-35 | loss |
| No change in Bank of England's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
| No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will UK GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%? | Yes | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? | No | 23¢ | 56¢ | +$179 | win |
| Will Germany GDP growth in Q4 2025 be above 0.4%? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 66.1¢ | 100¢ | +$128 | $250 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 65.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $100 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 20.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $50 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | No | 3.5¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | $62 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? | No | 4.7¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | $148 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 91.2¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $261 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will the Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the April decision? | Yes | 14.7¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $22 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will "Babydoll - Dominic Fike" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? | Yes | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | $148 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 4, 2026? | No | 58.0¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | $74 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 77.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $111 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? | Yes | 14.0¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? | No | 77.8¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $140 | 31/03/2026 |
| S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 58.5¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | $75 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | No | 3.7¢ | 0¢ | $-76 | $76 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 4, 2026? | Yes | 15.9¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? | Yes | 34.5¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | $55 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 37.0¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | $55 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | Yes | 42.7¢ | 0¢ | $-71 | $101 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | Yes | 42.7¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? | No | 60.0¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $30 | 27/03/2026 |
| No change in Bank of England's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 72.0¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $67 | 19/03/2026 |
| No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 76.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $80 | 19/03/2026 |
| Will "Stateside + Zara Larsson - PinkPantheress, Zara Larsson" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? | No | 16.2¢ | 100¢ | +$121 | $24 | 13/03/2026 |
| Will "Stateside + Zara Larsson - PinkPantheress, Zara Larsson" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $185 | 13/03/2026 |
| Will "Risk It All - Bruno Mars" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? | No | 78.0¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $96 | 13/03/2026 |
| Will "DtMF - Bad Bunny" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? | No | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $37 | 13/03/2026 |
| Will "DtMF - Bad Bunny" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? | Yes | 57.5¢ | 0¢ | $-141 | $150 | 06/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 14? | No | 76.2¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $120 | 01/03/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026? | No | 77.5¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $75 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will "DtMF - Bad Bunny" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? | Yes | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $171 | 27/02/2026 |
| Will "DtMF - Bad Bunny" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? | Yes | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $97 | 20/02/2026 |
| Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M and 100M views in its first 7 days? | Yes | 56.6¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | $60 | 15/02/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026? | No | 26.0¢ | 0¢ | +$47 | $25 | 13/02/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026? | No | 86.0¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $86 | 13/02/2026 |
| Will UK GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%? | Yes | 67.0¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $67 | 12/02/2026 |
| Will UK GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 0.5% and 1.0%? | Yes | 34.0¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | $31 | 12/02/2026 |
| Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get between 30 and 40 million views on day 1? | No | 31.9¢ | 100¢ | +$64 | $33 | 10/02/2026 |
| Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get between 50 and 60 million views on day 1? | Yes | 5.1¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | $37 | 10/02/2026 |
| Will monthly inflation be between 2.6% and 2.8% in January? | Yes | 29.0¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $23 | 10/02/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 6, 2026? | Yes | 60.0¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $60 | 06/02/2026 |
| Will Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? | No | 82.5¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $114 | 06/02/2026 |
| Will "End of Beginning - Djo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? | Yes | 87.6¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $95 | 06/02/2026 |
| Will Aperture - Harry Styles be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $128 | 06/02/2026 |
| Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in January? | Yes | 21.5¢ | 0¢ | $-96 | $111 | 06/02/2026 |
| Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1? | No | 60.0¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | $60 | 01/02/2026 |
| Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by January 31? | No | 77.5¢ | 100¢ | +$55 | $190 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 37.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $24 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 95.5¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $95 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by January 31? | Yes | 21.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $21 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? | Yes | 18.1¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $24 | 31/01/2026 |