Win rate
83.1%
59 W / 12 L
Total PnL
$-14,027
realized $-15,001 · unrealized $974
Portfolio
$974
volume $347,455
Predictions
70
0.7/day · avg $4,964
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 17/06/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 86% +$3,992
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | +$2 | win |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 69¢ | 57¢ | $-136 | loss |
| Starmer out by February 28, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 94¢ | 94¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$433 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | No | 46¢ | 100¢ | +$990 | win |
| Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$293 | win |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$61 | win |
| Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 17, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more? | Yes | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
Culture 100% +$615
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$96 | win |
| Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$519 | win |
Crypto 100% +$474
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$66 | win |
| Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? | Yes | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$408 | win |
Economy 100% +$245
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 94¢ | 99¢ | +$18 | win |
| No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 86¢ | 92¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$51 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$113 | win |
Sports 100% +$148
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$80 | win |
| Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Warriors vs. Suns | Suns | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Lakers vs. Suns | Lakers | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| Clippers vs. Rockets | Rockets | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
Mentions 100% +$76
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
Elections 100% +$29
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
Tech 100% +$18
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
Politics 71% $-864
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-292 | loss |
| Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | win |
| Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$118 | win |
| Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$353 | win |
| Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | win |
| Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31? | No | 71¢ | 0¢ | $-1,152 | loss |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
Geopolitics 72% $-18,803
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 96¢ | 0¢ | $-962 | loss |
| US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$632 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | US | 49¢ | 50¢ | +$13 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by March 7? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$190 | win |
| Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | $-45 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | No | 93¢ | 0¢ | $-11,136 | loss |
| US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 0¢ | $-2,448 | loss |
| US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | $-2,578 | loss |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$1,558 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 96.5¢ | 0¢ | $-962 | $965 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Opinion launch a token on March 5? | Yes | 72.9¢ | 100¢ | +$408 | $1,141 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? | No | 78.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1,353 | $5,342 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | No | 46.3¢ | 100¢ | +$990 | $1,003 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? | Yes | 92.4¢ | 100¢ | +$632 | $7,715 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | No | 93.9¢ | 100¢ | +$433 | $6,695 | 31/03/2026 |
| Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31? | Yes | 77.6¢ | 100¢ | +$293 | $1,014 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | $1,166 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Yes | 90.8¢ | 100¢ | +$61 | $625 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 94.7¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $686 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | US | 48.9¢ | 50¢ | +$13 | $694 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 17, 2026? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $37 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 96.6¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $1,808 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 80.4¢ | 100¢ | +$96 | $1,035 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more? | Yes | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$80 | $497 | 14/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more? | Yes | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $113 | 14/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 7? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $447 | 03/03/2026 |
| Will ZachXBT release his investigation on February 26? | Yes | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | $1,106 | 02/03/2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Yes | 87.1¢ | 100¢ | +$366 | $3,048 | 28/02/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 93.3¢ | 100¢ | +$190 | $2,671 | 28/02/2026 |
| Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? | Yes | 91.5¢ | 100¢ | $-45 | $193 | 28/02/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | No | 93.0¢ | 0¢ | $-11,136 | $12,639 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$80 | $3,000 | 22/02/2026 |
| Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $1,645 | 22/02/2026 |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | No | 74.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2,059 | $6,091 | 14/02/2026 |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | Yes | 96.4¢ | 0¢ | $-1,441 | $2,024 | 14/02/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026? | No | 39.1¢ | 0¢ | +$24 | $1,038 | 13/02/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026? | No | 90.0¢ | 0¢ | $-2,448 | $4,128 | 13/02/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026? | Yes | 82.8¢ | 100¢ | $-2,578 | $6,179 | 13/02/2026 |
| Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? | Yes | 73.9¢ | 100¢ | +$519 | $1,473 | 01/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026? | No | 86.7¢ | 100¢ | +$200 | $1,307 | 01/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 85.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1,558 | $9,367 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$483 | $4,991 | 31/01/2026 |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Yes | 68.8¢ | 100¢ | +$315 | $699 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$206 | $4,000 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | No | 95.7¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $1,141 | 31/01/2026 |
| Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10? | No | 94.9¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $1,194 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $2,000 | 31/01/2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: January | Yes | 55.0¢ | 0¢ | $-697 | $1,396 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 84.3¢ | 0¢ | $-2,989 | $3,748 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? | Yes | 86.8¢ | 100¢ | +$125 | $1,502 | 25/01/2026 |
| Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? | Yes | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$118 | $790 | 25/01/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$166 | $1,230 | 16/01/2026 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026? | No | 87.5¢ | 0¢ | $-2,557 | $2,565 | 15/01/2026 |
| Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31? | Yes | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$353 | $841 | 31/12/2025 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$172 | $2,393 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Yes | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | +$84 | $1,939 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $1,908 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 19? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $2,272 | 31/12/2025 |
| Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31? | No | 71.1¢ | 0¢ | $-1,152 | $1,993 | 31/12/2025 |