Raccoon12

Geopolitics 55% +$83 $625 vol · 11 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	No	86¢	53¢	+$2	win
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?	No	72¢	100¢	+$6	win
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10?	No	87¢	100¢	+$22	win
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?	No	80¢	100¢	+$9	win
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$-46	loss
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	24¢	0¢	+$7	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	Yes	7¢	0¢	$-18	loss

Other 57% +$32 $245 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	No	28¢	100¢	+$47	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	60¢	72¢	+$8	win
Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in April?	Yes	69¢	68¢	$-0	loss
Lighter Airdrop on December 31?	Yes	10¢	0¢	$-28	loss
Will Melbourne City FC win on 2025-11-08?	Yes	90¢	100¢	+$11	win
Southern Miss vs. Arkansas State	Southern Miss	81¢	100¢	+$6	win

Politics 100% +$27 $223 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	Yes	22¢	0¢	+$5	win
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?	No	91¢	100¢	+$0	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	No	80¢	100¢	+$22	win

Weather 60% +$27 $339 vol · 10 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 17?	Yes	38¢	24¢	$-9	loss
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on April 17?	Yes	40¢	37¢	$-2	loss
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 80°F or higher on April 15?	Yes	92¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 13?	Yes	44¢	100¢	+$28	win
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on April 13?	Yes	40¢	0¢	$-20	loss
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 84°F or higher on April 13?	Yes	55¢	100¢	+$22	win
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 60°F or higher on April 11?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or below on April 11?	Yes	52¢	0¢	$-26	loss
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on April 10?	Yes	93¢	100¢	+$3	win

Sports 100% +$23 $43 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Mavericks vs. Kings	Mavericks	33¢	100¢	+$18	win
Blue Jackets vs. Sharks	Sharks	82¢	100¢	+$5	win

Esports 100% +$5 $195 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2	Bilibili Gaming	78¢	0¢	+$5	win

Finance 100% +$3 $137 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 10?	Up	89¢	100¢	+$2	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 9?	Up	96¢	100¢	+$1	win

Elections 100% +$2 $33 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	30¢	66¢	+$2	win

Crypto 67% $-12 $499 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31?	No	100¢	100¢	$-0	loss
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Down	97¢	0¢	+$1	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 7AM ET	Down	96¢	100¢	+$1	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Down	97¢	100¢	+$6	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET	Up	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Ethereum Up or Down - November 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	68¢	0¢	$-20	loss