Win rate
91.3%
651 W / 62 L
Total PnL
$162,800
realized $-434,645 · unrealized $597,446
Portfolio
$597,446
volume $37,242,616
Predictions
718
5.1/day · avg $51,870
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 23/05/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 88% +$71,477
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yellow FDV above $400M one day after launch? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Yellow FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1,170 | win |
| Flying Tulip FDV above $400M one day after launch? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Aztec FDV above $800M one day after launch? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Flying Tulip FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Plasma dip to $1.00 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will the US strike Colombia next? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-88 | loss |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$514 | win |
Politics 96% +$36,975
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$7,601 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 89¢ | 92¢ | +$1,644 | win |
| Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$96 | win |
| Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$197 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in March? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Trump say "Waste" this week? (March 1) | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$447 | win |
| Will Leavitt say "Regime" during the next White House Press Briefing? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
Geopolitics 92% +$23,781
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$2,133 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$320 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2,011 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 13¢ | 0¢ | +$1,102 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1,055 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$463 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$334 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$301 | win |
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$200 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 32¢ | 0¢ | +$12 | win |
Elections 80% +$14,312
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 19¢ | $-78,125 | loss |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 81¢ | +$78,125 | win |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$116 | win |
| Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Will there be 150,000,000-155,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. Presidential Election? | Yes | 52¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will a candidate from another party win California Presidential Election? | Yes | 49¢ | 0¢ | $-3,438 | loss |
| Will a Republican win Florida in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$270 | win |
| Will a Republican win Ohio Presidential Election? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$112 | win |
| Will a Republican win Oregon Presidential Election? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | win |
| Will a Democrat win Florida in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | win |
Crypto 98% +$10,316
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trove launch a token by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? | 70k | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$973 | win |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$763 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in February? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in February? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in January? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$107 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$100 | win |
| Will Solana dip to $120 in January? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
| Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$871 | win |
Tech 88% +$5,757
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1,316 | win |
| Will Apple release AirTag 2 by June 30? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | win |
| Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2,122 | win |
| Apple Vision Pro 2 released by December 31? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$1,282 | win |
| Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Sam Altman say "Car" or "Tesla" on The Tonight Show on December 8? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$126 | win |
| Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$220 | win |
| Will Apple launch a new Apple TV on September 9? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will anyone say "iPhone" 100+ times during Apple launch event on September 9? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | win |
Sports 95% +$1,013
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$83 | win |
| Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$75 | win |
| Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during January press conference? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$138 | win |
| Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Ferrari finish third in the 2025 F1 Constructors' Championship? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Alexander Albon finish fifth in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Charles Leclerc finish fourth in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Culture 100% +$963
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$302 | win |
| Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | win |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$525 | win |
| Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $124m? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$90 | win |
Esports 100% +$470
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: FUZOS vs Nexus (BO3) - European Pro League Series 5 Group B | FUZOS | 49¢ | 50¢ | +$100 | win |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5) | Vitality | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$100 | win |
| Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner | Vitality | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs MIBR (BO3) | MIBR | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs MIBR - Map 2 Winner | RED Canids | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) | G2 | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$239 | win |
| Will Team Spirit win ESL Counter-Strike Champion 2024? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Natus Vincere win ESL Counter-Strike Champion 2024? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| ESL Counter-Strike Quarterfinals: G2 vs Liquid | G2 | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Economy 100% +$249
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 25+ times during October press conference? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Another successful Houthi attack on shipping in July? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$201 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
Mentions 100% +$130
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon tweet 350 or more times October 11-18? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Elon tweet 200-224 times? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Elon tweet 250-274 times? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Elon tweet 300 or more times? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Elon tweet 225-249 times? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Elon tweet between 55 and 64 times? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will Elon post 50-59 times? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
Weather 100% +$2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 13? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Finance 80% $-2,401
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 18? | Up | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$100 | win |
| Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 18, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$91 | win |
| Will ARKO Petroleum Corp.'s market cap be between $800M and $850M at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 85¢ | 0¢ | $-1,351 | loss |
| Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day? | No | 85¢ | 0¢ | $-1,333 | loss |
| Will Powell say "Stock Market" during January press conference? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Ryanair say "Starlink" during earnings call? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$54 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$672 | $100,665 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $29,970 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$806 | $309,039 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 98.4¢ | 98¢ | $-6 | $6,691 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$971 | $49,443 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$93 | $26,973 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2,519 | $623,051 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 82.3¢ | 0¢ | $-3,643 | $4,793 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? | Yes | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$973 | $250,934 | 01/04/2026 |
| Over $1M committed to the Cambria public sale? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $681 | 01/04/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$14,529 | $731,672 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1,557 | $199,989 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1,506 | $176,864 | 31/03/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$814 | $59,186 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 94.6¢ | 100¢ | +$763 | $13,307 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$691 | $328,979 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | US | 47.3¢ | 50¢ | +$533 | $14,860 | 31/03/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$383 | $19,979 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1? | No | 88.3¢ | 100¢ | +$350 | $2,650 | 31/03/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$330 | $22,881 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026? | No | 35.0¢ | 0¢ | +$323 | $700 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran strike gulf oil facilities by March 31? | No | 0.6¢ | 0¢ | +$309 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| US strikes Iraq by March 7? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$302 | $60,345 | 31/03/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 96.4¢ | 100¢ | +$277 | $7,445 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 84.2¢ | 100¢ | +$264 | $13,464 | 31/03/2026 |
| Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31? | No | 95.8¢ | 100¢ | +$197 | $10,920 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026? | Yes | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$152 | $40,892 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? | No | 88.1¢ | 100¢ | +$152 | $1,278 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? | Yes | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$121 | $14,779 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$96 | $92,998 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$61 | $30,577 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 17, 2026? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$58 | $57,658 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | $2,904 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $5,905 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026? | Yes | 92.9¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $1,766 | 31/03/2026 |
| Honus Wagner card sale >$5 million? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $17,534 | 31/03/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends on March 23, 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $9,577 | 31/03/2026 |
| Honus Wagner card sale >$6 million? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $14,143 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in March? | Yes | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $1,015 | 31/03/2026 |
| Honus Wagner card sale >$3 million? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $1,731 | 31/03/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends by March 23, 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $3,319 | 31/03/2026 |
| U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by March 31? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $2,068 | 31/03/2026 |
| Honus Wagner card sale >$2 million? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $1,424 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | $-2,296 | $62,374 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will LaGuardia Airport (LGA) be open to departures by 2:00 PM ET on March 23, 2026? | Yes | 83.7¢ | 100¢ | +$163 | $837 | 23/03/2026 |
| Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $1,506 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $20,811 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $4,995 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will Powell say "China" during March press conference? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $66 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$83 | $4,905 | 15/03/2026 |