0x2d43...f5a9

Geopolitics 67% +$2,958 $13,387 vol · 83 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	32¢	59¢	+$21	win
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	57¢	84¢	+$3	win
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	80¢	83¢	+$1	win
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	29¢	20¢	$-104	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	34¢	16¢	$-10	loss
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	48¢	100¢	+$16	win
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?	No	78¢	89¢	+$10	win
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	39¢	74¢	+$10	win
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	60¢	82¢	+$8	win
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	33¢	24¢	$-13	loss

Politics 67% +$228 $1,747 vol · 18 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$-10	loss
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Yes	24¢	1¢	$-2	loss
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?	Yes	62¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	No	53¢	72¢	+$54	win
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	Yes	42¢	40¢	$-3	loss
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	78¢	60¢	$-23	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	54¢	60¢	+$17	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	No	63¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?	Yes	13¢	0¢	$-17	loss
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?	Yes	44¢	100¢	+$62	win

Elections 45% +$162 $664 vol · 11 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	52¢	55¢	+$1	win
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	53¢	52¢	$-0	loss
Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?	No	77¢	0¢	$-50	loss
Will Catherine Trautmann be the next mayor of Strasbourg?	Yes	15¢	100¢	+$137	win
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?	No	23¢	100¢	$-9	loss
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?	Yes	71¢	0¢	$-61	loss
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?	No	53¢	100¢	$-21	loss
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?	No	28¢	0¢	$-31	loss

Other 78% +$111 $2,056 vol · 27 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?	No	58¢	69¢	+$22	win
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	16¢	16¢	+$1	win
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	55¢	64¢	+$68	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	59¢	22¢	$-32	loss
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	45¢	52¢	+$6	win
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	91¢	87¢	+$0	win
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	No	66¢	96¢	+$18	win
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?	No	52¢	87¢	+$15	win
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	70¢	99¢	+$12	win
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30?	No	44¢	96¢	+$10	win

Economy 100% +$17 $20 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15?	Yes	27¢	0¢	+$17	win

Culture 0% $-25 $49 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	26¢	0¢	$-1	loss
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	33¢	0¢	$-24	loss