Dragontree

Geopolitics 69% +$33,139 $1,222,914 vol · 188 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	99¢	100¢	$-697	loss
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	36¢	78¢	+$3,189	win
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	49¢	0¢	+$1,760	win
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	33¢	16¢	+$205	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	40¢	0¢	+$7	win
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	51¢	100¢	$-90	loss
Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	3¢	1¢	$-69	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	23¢	6¢	+$1,750	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	67¢	0¢	+$333	win
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by January 31?	No	83¢	100¢	+$45	win

Politics 68% +$16,729 $626,653 vol · 918 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	50¢	28¢	+$0	—
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	50¢	72¢	+$0	—
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	50¢	61¢	+$0	—
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	50¢	39¢	+$0	—
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	92¢	100¢	$-1,369	loss
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	No	100¢	100¢	$-3,665	loss
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	83¢	92¢	+$233	win
Will Pete Hegseth be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	No	82¢	100¢	$-27	loss
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?	No	94¢	94¢	$-6	loss
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Yes	36¢	1¢	+$96	win

Other 56% +$6,330 $485,173 vol · 483 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	70¢	70¢	+$4	win
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?	Yes	7¢	31¢	+$269	win
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX?	No	82¢	98¢	+$0	—
Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027?	No	57¢	94¢	+$55	win
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?	No	6¢	0¢	$-189	loss
Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale?	Yes	10¢	0¢	$-478	loss
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	27¢	16¢	+$1,662	win
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	72¢	84¢	+$87	win
US strike on Mexico by January 31?	No	89¢	100¢	+$6	win
US strike on Mexico by January 31?	Yes	7¢	0¢	$-1	loss

Culture 42% +$1,159 $7,657 vol · 19 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Two People Exchanging Saliva win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	69¢	100¢	+$1,128	win
Will The Girl Who Cried Pearls win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$12	win
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	5¢	0¢	$-90	loss
Will “A House of Dynamite” be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 11 2025)	Yes	45¢	0¢	$-25	loss
Will “Frankenstein” be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 11 2025)	No	48¢	0¢	$-26	loss
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be under 2500000?	No	84¢	100¢	+$258	win
Will "A Minecraft Movie" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 30?	Yes	17¢	0¢	$-215	loss
Will "A Minecraft Movie" Rotten Tomatoes score be more than 60?	No	93¢	100¢	$-43	loss
Will Demi Moore win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?	No	50¢	100¢	+$50	win
Will Zoe Saldaña win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars?	No	24¢	0¢	+$0	win

Crypto 68% +$956 $56,763 vol · 46 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during March press conference?	No	91¢	100¢	+$70	win
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?	No	22¢	100¢	+$162	win
Will Ethena win the USDH ticker?	Yes	-0¢	0¢	+$1	win
Will Ethena win the USDH ticker?	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?	Yes	10¢	0¢	+$223	win
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?	No	44¢	100¢	+$128	win
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?	No	67¢	100¢	+$44	win
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025?	No	78¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?	Yes	95¢	100¢	$-52	loss
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?	No	92¢	100¢	$-177	loss

Finance 83% +$520 $4,231 vol · 30 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Powell say "Stock Market" during January press conference?	No	71¢	100¢	+$24	win
Mistral AI IPO in 2025?	No	90¢	100¢	$-89	loss
Glean IPO in 2025?	Yes	95¢	0¢	$-12	loss
Will CAVA say "Dining" during earnings call?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will CAVA say "Automation" during earnings call?	No	72¢	100¢	+$33	win
Will Oatly Group (OTLY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	67¢	0¢	+$57	win
Will General Mills (GIS) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?	No	47¢	0¢	$-47	loss
Will anyone say "Interface" during the Q2 2025 Netflix earnings call?	No	54¢	0¢	$-137	loss
Will anyone say "America" during the Q2 2025 Netflix earnings call?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Michael Saylor say "A.I" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Q1 2025 Strategy earnings call?	Yes	50¢	0¢	$-57	loss

Elections 51% +$453 $595,905 vol · 111 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	2¢	2¢	+$10	win
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	50¢	81¢	+$15,675	win
Will Forum for Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	Yes	-0¢	0¢	+$0	win
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	No	4¢	0¢	+$0	—
Will Trump say "Midterm" during Fox interview on Wednesday?	No	51¢	0¢	$-188	loss
Will Trump say "Swing State" at the NRCC Dinner on March 25?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Donald Trump say "Rigged Election" on Truth Social this week?	No	69¢	100¢	+$52	win
Will Trump say "VoterID" or "Voter ID" during the Black History Month reception?	No	72¢	100¢	+$40	win
Will Cristian-Vasile Terheș win the Romanian presidential election?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-166	loss
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?	No	51¢	100¢	+$0	—

Economy 61% $-183 $164,346 vol · 47 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	24¢	0¢	$-1,559	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?	No	73¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will Bryan Johnson say "Mushroom" 10+ times while tripping balls?	No	10¢	0¢	$-40	loss
Will Bryan Johnson say "Stress" or "DNA" or "Sexual" while tripping balls?	Yes	95¢	100¢	$-233	loss
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$-548	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?	No	99¢	100¢	$-437	loss
Will Powell say "Recession" during October press conference?	No	98¢	100¢	+$9	win
Will Powell say "Labor Market" 10+ times during speech on October 14?	Yes	73¢	0¢	$-73	loss
Next BLS jobs report by Oct 3, 2025, 8:30 AM ET?	No	98¢	100¢	+$30	win
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	31¢	0¢	$-6,170	loss

Mentions 27% $-681 $9,944 vol · 91 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Shayne say "Mention" during 60 Minutes?	No	61¢	100¢	+$64	win
Longest Bill Ackman tweet of all time by Wednesday?	No	91¢	100¢	+$16	win
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28?	No	94¢	100¢	$-88	loss
Will Elon tweet 800 or more times March 7-14?	No	99¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 28 - March 7?	Yes	10¢	0¢	$-30	loss
Will Elon tweet 1000 or more times Feb 28 - March 7?	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will Elon tweet 450-499 times Feb 21-28?	No	98¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 21-28?	Yes	37¢	0¢	$-44	loss
Will Elon tweet 900-949 times Feb 14-21?	No	96¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?	Yes	15¢	0¢	$-89	loss

Sports 47% $-3,212 $34,500 vol · 84 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Spread: Clippers (-3.5)	Warriors	10¢	0¢	$-200	loss
Spread: Spurs (-9.5)	Nuggets	60¢	100¢	+$280	win
Jazz vs. Lakers: O/U 238.5	Over	28¢	0¢	$-28	loss
Warriors vs. Clippers: O/U 228.5	Over	17¢	0¢	$-154	loss
Bulls vs. Mavericks: O/U 246.5	Over	84¢	100¢	+$12	win
Spread: Mavericks (-5.5)	Bulls	25¢	0¢	$-25	loss
Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 228.5	Under	49¢	0¢	$-98	loss
Jazz vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5	Under	35¢	0¢	$-35	loss
Kings vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 226.5	Under	26¢	0¢	$-52	loss
Bulls vs. Mavericks: O/U 249.5	Under	11¢	0¢	$-50	loss

Tech 65% $-3,811 $101,521 vol · 102 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?	Yes	69¢	70¢	+$3	win
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	Yes	91¢	100¢	$-4,598	loss
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	No	73¢	100¢	$-200	loss
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-72	loss
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?	No	98¢	100¢	$-95	loss
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 23?	No	2¢	0¢	$-24	loss
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 23?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-62	loss
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?	Yes	10¢	0¢	$-1,644	loss
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Yes	2¢	0¢	+$50	win
Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1600 on LMArena by December 31?	No	98¢	100¢	+$113	win