Win rate
43.9%
212 W / 271 L
Total PnL
$-3,047
realized $-5,252 · unrealized $2,205
Portfolio
$2,205
volume $377,355
Predictions
481
2.7/day · avg $785
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 03/09/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 61% +$2,007
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 68¢ | 82¢ | $-1 | loss |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 85¢ | 86¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | 90¢ | 90¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 30¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 76¢ | 94¢ | +$274 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 41¢ | 0¢ | $-216 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 99¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? | No | 85¢ | 94¢ | +$9 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 59¢ | 0¢ | $-91 | loss |
Elections 44% +$75
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 17¢ | 17¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 72¢ | 64¢ | $-40 | loss |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 79¢ | 90¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? | Yes | 59¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? | No | 60¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? | No | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$56 | win |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | win |
| Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | win |
Crypto 40% +$66
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? | No | 49¢ | 94¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET | Up | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET | Up | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in January? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | No | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$110 | win |
| Over 150,000 bidders in the MegaETH public sale? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | win |
| Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? | Yes | 68¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will Rabby launch a token in 2025? | No | 69¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Yes | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | loss |
| Will Solana reach $260 before 2026? | Yes | 78¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | loss |
Politics 38% +$28
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 81¢ | 93¢ | +$206 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026? | Yes | 45¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Republican House Odds Up or Down this week? | Up | 48¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? | No | 68¢ | 100¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Trump" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | win |
| Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19? | No | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-75 | loss |
| Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 7? | No | 70¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 14? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in October? | Yes | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$66 | win |
Esports 50% $-1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs Prestige (BO3) | XI Esport | 50¢ | 50¢ | +$0 | — |
| Lakers vs. Celtics: O/U 224.5 | Over | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$94 | win |
| Counter-Strike: B8 vs 3DMAX (BO3) | 3DMAX | 46¢ | 0¢ | $-96 | loss |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) | G2 Esports | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
Finance 25% $-31
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 6? | Up | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 13? | Up | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Costco Wholesale (COST) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? | No | 42¢ | 100¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will Fedex (FDX) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
Mentions 33% $-37
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025? | No | 57¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025? | Yes | 45¢ | 0¢ | $-67 | loss |
Culture 0% $-43
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m? | Yes | 44¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m? | No | 72¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
Tech 67% $-716
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale? | Yes | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Over $180M committed to the Ranger public sale? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Over $100M committed to the Solomon public sale? | Yes | 19¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| Over $60M committed to the Solomon public sale? | No | 85¢ | 0¢ | $-533 | loss |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025? | Yes | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | win |
| Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24? | Yes | 62¢ | 0¢ | $-324 | loss |
Other 41% $-1,707
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? | No | 33¢ | 40¢ | $-40 | loss |
| Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale? | No | 52¢ | 0¢ | +$123 | win |
| Over $5M committed to the Bitway public sale? | No | 49¢ | 100¢ | $-27 | loss |
| Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 37¢ | 82¢ | $-4 | loss |
| HumidiFi FDV above $200M one day after launch? | No | 54¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Zama auction clearing price above $0.05? | No | 74¢ | 100¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Sentient FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 62¢ | 100¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? | No | 66¢ | 100¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Aztec FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 70¢ | 100¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Sentient FDV above $800M one day after launch? | Yes | 81¢ | 100¢ | $-30 | loss |
Sports 40% $-2,966
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magic vs. 76ers | 76ers | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$168 | win |
| Wild vs. Predators | Wild | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Kings vs. Hornets | Kings | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Pelicans vs. Knicks | Pelicans | 24¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Spread: Warriors (-2.5) | Mavericks | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-80 | loss |
| Hawks vs. Mavericks | Mavericks | 26¢ | 0¢ | $-130 | loss |
| Suns vs. Timberwolves | Suns | 40¢ | 0¢ | $-157 | loss |
| Spurs vs. Clippers | Clippers | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | loss |
| Spread: Trail Blazers (-10.5) | Nets | 48¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | loss |
| Magic vs. Hawks | Magic | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magic vs. 76ers | 76ers | 53.0¢ | 100¢ | +$168 | $190 | 15/04/2026 |
| Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Hubert Hurkacz vs Luciano Darderi | Luciano Darderi | 62.0¢ | 0¢ | $-70 | $70 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | $150 | 12/04/2026 |
| Senators vs. Devils | Senators | 49.0¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 12/04/2026 |
| Wild vs. Predators | Wild | 51.0¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-04-11? | No | 68.0¢ | 0¢ | $-250 | $250 | 11/04/2026 |
| Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) | FC Bayern München | 24.0¢ | 0¢ | $-92 | $1,104 | 07/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET | Up | 21.2¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | $35 | 03/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET | Up | 25.5¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $40 | 03/04/2026 |
| Lehecka vs. Fils: Match O/U 22.5 | Over | 58.0¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 03/04/2026 |
| Lehecka vs. Fils: Match O/U 21.5 | Over | 71.4¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 03/04/2026 |
| Miami Open: Tommy Paul vs Arthur Fils | Arthur Fils | 56.6¢ | 100¢ | +$107 | $180 | 02/04/2026 |
| Paul vs. Fils: Match O/U 22.5 | Over | 60.3¢ | 100¢ | +$86 | $130 | 02/04/2026 |
| Paul vs. Fils: Match O/U 23.5 | Over | 53.0¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | $50 | 02/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 83.9¢ | 100¢ | +$415 | $3,883 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1? | Yes | 57.0¢ | 100¢ | +$144 | $200 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? | No | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | +$122 | $340 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 79.3¢ | 100¢ | +$115 | $500 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026? | No | 46.1¢ | 100¢ | +$105 | $110 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | Yes | 69.6¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | $150 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | No | 19.4¢ | 0¢ | +$49 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | No | 79.1¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | $200 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 87.2¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | $350 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 95.8¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $700 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 34.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $117 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | No | 30.5¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $79 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | $-10 | $1,000 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? | No | 78.0¢ | 100¢ | $-11 | $1,233 | 31/03/2026 |
| Miami Open: Ugo Humbert vs Francisco Cerundolo | Ugo Humbert | 53.0¢ | 0¢ | $-132 | $150 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? | No | 43.1¢ | 0¢ | $-170 | $170 | 31/03/2026 |
| US strikes Iraq by March 7? | No | 32.5¢ | 0¢ | $-191 | $348 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? | Yes | 21.0¢ | 0¢ | $-194 | $420 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kings vs. Hornets | Kings | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $30 | 24/03/2026 |
| Pelicans vs. Knicks | Pelicans | 24.0¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 24/03/2026 |
| Warriors vs. Mavericks | Mavericks | 45.0¢ | 0¢ | $-80 | $80 | 24/03/2026 |
| Spread: Warriors (-2.5) | Mavericks | 50.0¢ | 0¢ | $-80 | $80 | 24/03/2026 |
| Hawks vs. Mavericks | Mavericks | 26.0¢ | 0¢ | $-130 | $130 | 19/03/2026 |
| Suns vs. Timberwolves | Suns | 40.4¢ | 0¢ | $-157 | $180 | 18/03/2026 |
| Spread: Spurs (-7.5) | Clippers | 49.0¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $30 | 17/03/2026 |
| Spread: Spurs (-8.5) | Clippers | 53.0¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $30 | 17/03/2026 |
| Spurs vs. Clippers | Clippers | 27.0¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | $60 | 17/03/2026 |
| Spread: Trail Blazers (-11.5) | Nets | 53.0¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $40 | 16/03/2026 |
| Trail Blazers vs. Nets | Nets | 19.7¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | $45 | 16/03/2026 |
| Magic vs. Hawks | Magic | 43.0¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 16/03/2026 |
| Warriors vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5 | Under | 53.0¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 16/03/2026 |
| Spread: Trail Blazers (-10.5) | Nets | 48.0¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | $60 | 16/03/2026 |
| Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5) | Warriors | 54.0¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $40 | 14/03/2026 |
| Bucks vs. Hawks | Bucks | 19.0¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 14/03/2026 |
| Pelicans vs. Rockets | Pelicans | 33.0¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 14/03/2026 |
| Timberwolves vs. Warriors | Warriors | 36.0¢ | 0¢ | $-80 | $80 | 14/03/2026 |