Win rate
77.1%
407 W / 121 L
Total PnL
$8,346
realized $-3,302 · unrealized $11,649
Portfolio
$11,649
volume $125,140
Predictions
811
20.1/day · avg $154
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 13/12/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 71% +$3,157
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 58¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Israel strike 2 countries in 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | Yes | 89¢ | 0¢ | $-52 | loss |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | No | 87¢ | 88¢ | +$0 | win |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | No | 80¢ | 81¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | 83¢ | 91¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | No | 87¢ | 88¢ | +$1 | win |
| US military draft authorized in 2026? | No | 76¢ | 92¢ | +$11 | win |
| Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? | No | 59¢ | 83¢ | +$17 | win |
Elections 84% +$2,157
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027? | Yes | 59¢ | 68¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 73¢ | 66¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 92¢ | 95¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 98¢ | 74¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | Yes | 53¢ | 57¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | Yes | 88¢ | 88¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 87¢ | 90¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? | No | 79¢ | 90¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? | Yes | 58¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | win |
Other 77% +$1,320
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Block Street FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 69¢ | 70¢ | +$0 | win |
| Over $60M committed to the Infinex public sale? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 44¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
| Opinion FDV above $5B one day after launch? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Owlto FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Lighter Airdrop before January 1? | No | 13¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Infinex FDV above $4B one day after launch? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Harmonix FDV above $8M one day after launch? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Crypto 92% +$89
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kodiak launch a token by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Tria launch a token by March 31, 2026? | No | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 5? | No | 82¢ | 93¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | 29¢ | 76¢ | +$54 | win |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | 88¢ | 91¢ | +$3 | win |
| USDE depeg by December 31? | No | 72¢ | 85¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Hegseth say "Game" during press conference? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will SOL flip ETH in 2025? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Politics 74% +$62
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 93¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | win |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? | No | 55¢ | 50¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? | No | 80¢ | 87¢ | +$3 | win |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? | No | 70¢ | 66¢ | +$2 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? | No | 54¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | loss |
| Will Lamont McClure be the Democratic nominee for PA-07? | No | 78¢ | 96¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in April 2026? | No | 95¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30? | No | 94¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 31¢ | 7¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Iran" or "Iranian" 15+ times during Monday news conference? | Yes | 58¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
Economy 100% +$53
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by June 30? | No | 33¢ | 87¢ | +$34 | win |
| Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31? | No | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
Weather 100% +$4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 7, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Sports 100% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tatiana Auguste win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada? | Yes | 61.0¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $40 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Jorge Nieto finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 9.4¢ | 0¢ | +$167 | $71 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? | Yes | 20.5¢ | 16¢ | +$48 | $147 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori and Jorge Nieto advance to the runoff? | Yes | 0.9¢ | 0¢ | +$26 | $22 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 61.4¢ | 99¢ | +$10 | $85 | 12/04/2026 |
| Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority? | Yes | 94.6¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $164 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the third-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $51 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 39.5¢ | 97¢ | +$4 | $42 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $30 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 60 seats? | No | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $102 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win at least 130 seats? | Yes | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $158 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will another party win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 95.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $35 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) finish with the third-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $250 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 20.0¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | $20 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 15-18%? | Yes | 71.7¢ | 4¢ | $-18 | $25 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by <9%? | Yes | 37.9¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $36 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win at least 120 seats? | No | 43.5¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $54 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Jorge Nieto finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 78.1¢ | 1¢ | $-34 | $55 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 46.0¢ | 1¢ | $-62 | $74 | 12/04/2026 |
| Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority? | No | 72.4¢ | 0¢ | $-149 | $180 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? | Yes | 76.8¢ | 84¢ | +$20 | $259 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 74–77% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 82.0¢ | 99¢ | +$47 | $223 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Ricardo Belmont finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 82.0¢ | 99¢ | +$40 | $186 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 32.9¢ | 85¢ | +$118 | $139 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 48.7¢ | 84¢ | +$50 | $71 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 80.4¢ | 85¢ | +$6 | $109 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 87.9¢ | 84¢ | $-6 | $120 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 39.1¢ | 2¢ | $-21 | $274 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 71–74% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 83.8¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $113 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party (Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt) (MKKP) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $96 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 27.3¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $21 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | No | 82.0¢ | 98¢ | +$10 | $49 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 80 seats? | Yes | 49.0¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | $29 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 12-15%? | Yes | 70.1¢ | 96¢ | +$10 | $28 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? | No | 56.0¢ | 84¢ | +$30 | $90 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election? | No | 75.0¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $30 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will José Luna finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $35 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga and Roberto Sánchez Palomino advance to the runoff? | No | 81.6¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $57 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $23 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Enrique Valderrama finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $22 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 12-15%? | No | 93.9¢ | 4¢ | $-79 | $94 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will "YOUR RAGE" win the streamer fight? | No | 4.0¢ | 0¢ | $-53 | $64 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will JD Vance say "God" 3+ times during meetings with Orbán? | Yes | 20.1¢ | 100¢ | +$108 | $31 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will JD Vance say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 6+ times during meetings with Orbán? | Yes | 49.6¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $32 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will JD Vance say "Viktor" or "Orbán" 4+ times during meetings with Orbán? | Yes | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $27 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will Hegseth say "Game" during press conference? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $91 | 08/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 20.5¢ | 100¢ | +$154 | $49 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Iran" or "Iranian" 15+ times during Monday news conference? | Yes | 58.0¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $46 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? | Yes | 11.0¢ | 0¢ | +$7 | $30 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 18, 2026? | Yes | 26.5¢ | 100¢ | +$294 | $106 | 31/03/2026 |