Win rate
94.9%
2327 W / 124 L
Total PnL
$7,423
realized $6,376 · unrealized $1,047
Portfolio
$1,047
volume $1,381,097
Predictions
7,540
861.6/day · avg $183
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 08/04/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Weather 93% +$707
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | No | 89¢ | 84¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C or below on April 19? | Yes | -2¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 16°C or below on April 19? | Yes | -2¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 19? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on April 19? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C or higher on April 19? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on April 18? | Yes | -1¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Houston be 65°F or below on April 18? | Yes | -1¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 18? | Yes | -1¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on April 18? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
Other 97% +$660
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS? | Yes | — | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? | No | 100¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | 65¢ | 63¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will ByteDance have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? | No | 48¢ | 48¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? | Yes | -0¢ | 9¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? | Yes | -0¢ | 6¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
Elections 94% +$385
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Miguel Uribe Turbay win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Yes | — | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Roy Barreras win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Analilia Mejia win the NJ-11 Special Election by between 30% and 35%? | Yes | -3¢ | 2¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Maxime Beaudoin win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Tatiana Auguste win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada? | No | 30¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? | Yes | 54¢ | 79¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 8¢ | 1¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%? | Yes | 76¢ | 86¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 18%+? | Yes | — | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
Mentions 100% +$254
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | Yes | -0¢ | 2¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Yes | -1¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Khamenei post 60+ posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Yes | -2¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? | Yes | -1¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Sports 99% +$68
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Chapecoense win Brazil Série A? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Coritiba win Brazil Série A? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? | Yes | -0¢ | 22¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27? | No | 95¢ | 87¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27? | Yes | -0¢ | 2¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27? | No | 99¢ | 90¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Economy 80% +$45
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after April 2026 meeting? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Bank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting? | No | 96¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | -1¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%? | Yes | 26¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.5% and 6.0%? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Geopolitics 80% +$30
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | Yes | — | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision? | Yes | 50¢ | 31¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Military action against Iran ends before April 2026? | Yes | — | 0¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Military action against Iran ends on April 19, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-04-11? | Yes | -1¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
Politics 97% +$30
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Charles Gambaro be the Republican nominee for FL-06? | Yes | -1¢ | 5¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Kevin Lee McCants be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Tennessee? | Yes | -0¢ | 5¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Bill Hagerty be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Tennessee? | No | 95¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Jordan Wood be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? | Yes | — | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? | No | 93¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | Yes | -0¢ | 10¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Harris English win the 2026 RBC Heritage? | No | 99¢ | 95¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will White House post 20-39 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Yes | -1¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
Crypto 100% +$19
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will February be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will September be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? | No | 90¢ | 89¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 RBC Heritage? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on April 16? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on April 16? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will "Something Very Bad is Going to Happen: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will "Something Very Bad is Going to Happen: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will "Something Very Bad is Going to Happen: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? | Yes | — | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Ethan Fang be the best overall player from the PGA Tour in the 2026 Masters main tournament? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
Tech 100% +$11
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Microsoft have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Meta have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Microsoft have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? | No | 97¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | — | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Amazon have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Amazon have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | — | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Meta have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? | No | 92¢ | 95¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Culture 96% +$6
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Madagascar" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? | Yes | — | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will "Bandi: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will "Love on the Spectrum: Season 4" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? | Yes | — | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will "Untold: The Death & Life of Lamar Odom" be the top US Netflix movie this week? | Yes | — | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will "Love on the Spectrum: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will "Temptation Island: Season 10" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will "Thrash" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will "Danny Go!: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will "Big Mistakes: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will "Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle" be the top US Netflix movie this week? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Finance 100% +$2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Madison Air not IPO before June 2026? | Yes | -0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Arxis not IPO before June 2026? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the S&P 500 (SPX) open at 6900–7000 on April 8? | Yes | — | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the S&P 500 (SPX) open at <6600 on April 8? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$28 | $6,270 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Melbourne Victory FC vs. Newcastle United Jets FC end in a draw? | Yes | 59.3¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $37 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Club Blooming win on 2026-04-16? | Yes | -5.8¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $91 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on April 17? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $1,376 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 17? | Yes | -0.1¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $1,225 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on April 17? | Yes | -0.1¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $1,225 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or below on April 17? | Yes | -0.1¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $1,225 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 17? | Yes | -0.1¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $1,206 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 17? | Yes | -0.1¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $1,187 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 17? | Yes | -0.1¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $1,185 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 17? | Yes | -0.1¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $1,185 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 17? | Yes | -0.1¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $1,185 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 17? | Yes | -0.3¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $77 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 17? | Yes | -0.4¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $155 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $5.00-$6.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 13 – Apr 17? | Yes | 0.0¢ | 90¢ | +$2 | $118 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $6.00-$7.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 13 – Apr 17? | Yes | -0.1¢ | 5¢ | +$2 | $107 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on April 17? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $744 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C or below on April 17? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $744 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 17? | Yes | -0.4¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $252 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be at least 6.0%? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $6,774 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 17? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $730 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on April 17? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $730 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C or higher on April 17? | Yes | -0.1¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $318 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on April 17? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $728 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on April 17? | Yes | -3.1¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $32 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $4.00-$5.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 13 – Apr 17? | Yes | -0.1¢ | 10¢ | +$1 | $74 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 3.5%? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $6,774 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.5% and 6.0%? | Yes | -0.2¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $4,274 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.5 and 4.0%? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $6,774 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on April 17? | Yes | -0.3¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $77 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $3.00-$4.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 13 – Apr 17? | Yes | 0.0¢ | 1¢ | +$1 | $56 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on April 17? | Yes | -0.2¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $327 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on April 17? | Yes | -0.2¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $327 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on April 17? | Yes | -0.2¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $327 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on April 17? | Yes | -0.2¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $327 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C or below on April 17? | Yes | -0.2¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $327 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on April 17? | Yes | -0.2¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $327 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Yes | -0.5¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $27 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 17? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $476 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Khamenei post 50-54 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Yes | -2.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $21 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will White House post 100-119 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Yes | -0.2¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $38 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on April 17? | Yes | -0.2¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $323 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on April 17? | Yes | -0.2¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $323 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on April 17? | Yes | -0.3¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $77 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$9.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 13 – Apr 17? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $118 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will White House post 80-99 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Yes | -0.2¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $38 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $7.00-$8.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 13 – Apr 17? | Yes | -0.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $118 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 13°C on April 17? | Yes | -0.8¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $36 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Busan be 14°C on April 17? | Yes | -0.8¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $36 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Yes | -2.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $21 | 17/04/2026 |