Win rate
68.8%
88 W / 40 L
Total PnL
$714
realized $-1,219 · unrealized $1,933
Portfolio
$1,933
volume $35,914
Predictions
208
3.9/day · avg $173
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 15/09/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Crypto 76% +$460
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereal FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 56¢ | 78¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$114 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 80¢ | 38¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 71¢ | 87¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 53¢ | 42¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 26? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on January 22? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 21? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Stable launch a token in 2025? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Economy 100% +$156
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 52¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$91 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Elections 100% +$152
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 7¢ | 11¢ | +$39 | win |
| Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$76 | win |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
Politics 85% +$139
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 15¢ | 22¢ | +$74 | win |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 85¢ | 90¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | No | 57¢ | 62¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Zohran Mamdani praise Donald Trump on Friday? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 5? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in September? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump sue Powell by September 30? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump try to fire Powell by September 30? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Other 65% $-33
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 23¢ | 12¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Sentio FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 76¢ | 66¢ | $-4 | loss |
| EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Opinion FDV above $600M one day after launch? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Based FDV above $100M one day after launch? | No | 58¢ | 0¢ | $-44 | loss |
| Aztec FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Theo FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 76¢ | 99¢ | +$6 | win |
| Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Geopolitics 38% $-102
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 35¢ | 67¢ | +$16 | win |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | Yes | 32¢ | 18¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 43¢ | 30¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? | No | 18¢ | 3¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | loss |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 68¢ | 0¢ | $-54 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
Tech 0% $-149
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $40M committed to the Solomon public sale? | No | 78¢ | 0¢ | $-78 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | No | 73.9¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | 78.0¢ | 100¢ | $-11 | $31 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 17.6¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | $56 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more? | Yes | 76.4¢ | 100¢ | $-38 | $195 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? | Yes | 63.6¢ | 0¢ | $-62 | $97 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 26? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $80 | 26/02/2026 |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Yes | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $170 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 67.9¢ | 0¢ | $-54 | $407 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on January 22? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $400 | 22/01/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 21? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $100 | 21/01/2026 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | Yes | 84.8¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $51 | 01/01/2026 |
| Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Yes | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $584 | 01/01/2026 |
| Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Yes | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $593 | 01/01/2026 |
| Uniswap protocol fee switch enabled by December 31? | No | 52.5¢ | 0¢ | +$7 | $89 | 01/01/2026 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch? | No | 95.6¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $115 | 01/01/2026 |
| Meteora FDV above $2B one day after launch? | No | 96.8¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $102 | 01/01/2026 |
| Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 95.8¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $69 | 01/01/2026 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? | No | 95.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $50 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will Stable launch a token in 2025? | Yes | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $28 | 01/01/2026 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $48 | 01/01/2026 |
| Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? | No | 57.8¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | $409 | 01/01/2026 |
| Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale? | Yes | 58.0¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | $29 | 01/01/2026 |
| Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale? | Yes | 86.0¢ | 0¢ | $-62 | $69 | 01/01/2026 |
| Over $20M committed to the Solomon public sale? | No | 27.5¢ | 0¢ | $-71 | $71 | 01/01/2026 |
| Over $40M committed to the Solomon public sale? | No | 78.0¢ | 0¢ | $-78 | $78 | 01/01/2026 |
| Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale? | Yes | 89.4¢ | 0¢ | $-107 | $138 | 01/01/2026 |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 30? | Yes | 32.0¢ | 100¢ | +$82 | $38 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 43.0¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $43 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 78.5¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $157 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Yes | 40.5¢ | 0¢ | +$7 | $81 | 31/12/2025 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? | No | 92.5¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $67 | 31/12/2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | No | 93.7¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $28 | 31/12/2025 |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | Yes | 87.6¢ | 26¢ | $-12 | $61 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | Yes | 90.5¢ | 100¢ | $-15 | $283 | 31/12/2025 |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 29? | Yes | 39.6¢ | 0¢ | $-48 | $48 | 31/12/2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 52.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $31 | 10/12/2025 |
| Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 25? | Yes | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $39 | 26/11/2025 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani praise Donald Trump on Friday? | No | 74.8¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $67 | 21/11/2025 |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | $1,016 | 15/11/2025 |
| Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election? | Yes | 93.9¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $168 | 11/11/2025 |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 92.9¢ | 100¢ | +$76 | $991 | 04/11/2025 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 90.7¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $476 | 04/11/2025 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$54 | $323 | 01/11/2025 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $601 | 01/11/2025 |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? | Yes | 89.7¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $160 | 31/10/2025 |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22? | Yes | 85.2¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $54 | 31/10/2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 91.4¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | $534 | 29/10/2025 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on October 20? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $639 | 20/10/2025 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on October 18? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $467 | 18/10/2025 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on October 18? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $55 | 18/10/2025 |