Win rate
52.5%
21 W / 19 L
Total PnL
$601
realized $83 · unrealized $518
Portfolio
$518
volume $14,965
Predictions
41
4.5/day · avg $365
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 06/04/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 54% +$459
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 33¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? | No | 59¢ | 82¢ | +$20 | win |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 39¢ | 74¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | No | 28¢ | 6¢ | $-5 | loss |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 53¢ | 71¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | Yes | 46¢ | 92¢ | +$73 | win |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | Yes | 18¢ | 100¢ | +$107 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 46¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 9, 2026? | No | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | loss |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | Yes | 53¢ | 50¢ | +$21 | win |
Politics 50% +$43
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026? | No | 46¢ | 32¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | Yes | 40¢ | 49¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026? | No | 76¢ | 90¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 45¢ | 100¢ | +$77 | win |
Other 50% +$32
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 31¢ | 35¢ | +$3 | win |
| Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? | Yes | 74¢ | 41¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? | No | 40¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? | Yes | 48¢ | 0¢ | +$20 | win |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | Yes | 23¢ | 7¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 45¢ | 37¢ | $-13 | loss |
Recent Trades (40)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 31.8¢ | 90¢ | +$122 | $127 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 35.0¢ | 0¢ | $-112 | $252 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026? | Yes | 13.5¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | $31 | 14/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 38.5¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $28 | 10/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 45.3¢ | 100¢ | +$77 | $90 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 33.8¢ | 8¢ | +$13 | $57 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 94.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $139 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | No | 50.0¢ | 92¢ | $-22 | $35 | 18/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 16.7¢ | 8¢ | $-22 | $50 | 18/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? | Yes | 73.0¢ | 76¢ | $-2 | $45 | 20/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 71.0¢ | 90¢ | +$97 | $300 | 21/04/2026 |
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? | No | 54.1¢ | 95¢ | +$45 | $202 | 21/04/2026 |
| Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026? | No | 75.6¢ | 90¢ | $-4 | $37 | 21/04/2026 |
| Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026? | Yes | 16.0¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | $26 | 21/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 35.7¢ | 58¢ | +$63 | $99 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026? | No | 46.0¢ | 32¢ | $-36 | $115 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 44.9¢ | 37¢ | $-13 | $75 | 30/04/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | Yes | 52.6¢ | 50¢ | +$21 | $104 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | Yes | 39.9¢ | 49¢ | +$8 | $32 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 74.9¢ | 100¢ | +$115 | $531 | 30/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? | Yes | 18.4¢ | 100¢ | +$107 | $36 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | Yes | 46.0¢ | 92¢ | +$73 | $169 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? | No | 40.4¢ | 100¢ | +$40 | $69 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? | Yes | 47.7¢ | 0¢ | +$20 | $77 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 44.0¢ | 86¢ | +$16 | $29 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | Yes | 62.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $34 | 30/04/2026 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | Yes | 22.7¢ | 7¢ | $-5 | $50 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 78.4¢ | 82¢ | $-5 | $46 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 12.0¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | $23 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 46.3¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | $66 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 10, 2026? | No | 25.7¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | $27 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 9, 2026? | No | 32.3¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | $42 | 30/04/2026 |
| Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? | Yes | 74.0¢ | 41¢ | $-13 | $29 | 15/05/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 53.0¢ | 71¢ | $-2 | $47 | 31/05/2026 |
| US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 30.9¢ | 35¢ | +$3 | $20 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 33.3¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $29 | 30/06/2026 |
| Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? | No | 59.2¢ | 82¢ | +$20 | $74 | 30/06/2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 39.0¢ | 74¢ | +$17 | $25 | 30/06/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 84.1¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $96 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | No | 27.8¢ | 6¢ | $-5 | $30 | 30/06/2026 |