polopilo

Other 91% +$1,101 $82,483 vol · 592 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Over $2M committed to the Bitway public sale?	No	100¢	100¢	+$2	win
Zama auction clearing price above $0.06?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Over $30M committed to the Trove public sale?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Insurrection Act invoked by January 31?	No	82¢	100¢	+$4	win
US strike on Mexico by January 31?	No	96¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will the US strike Mexico next?	No	94¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will the US strike 2 countries in 2026?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Bri McNees get engaged on Love is Blind: Ohio?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Rosalyn Ransaw get engaged on Love is Blind: Ohio?	No	99¢	100¢	$-20	loss
Will MrBeast say "Insane" during his next YouTube video?	No	99¢	100¢	+$1	win

Politics 91% +$589 $50,297 vol · 409 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	99¢	100¢	$-0	loss
Will Leavitt say "Ten-Point Plan" during the next White House press briefing?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Leavitt say "Death to America" during the next White House press briefing?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Leavitt say "Fraud" during the next White House press briefing?	No	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Trump's remarks not air?	No	99¢	99¢	+$1	win
Will Mark Rutte say "Trump" during meeting with Prime Minister of Czechia?	No	94¢	100¢	+$14	win
Will Trump's remarks not air?	No	98¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will Trump's remarks not air?	No	97¢	100¢	$-16	loss
Will Trump say "Hague" during dinner with Dutch royals?	No	92¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Trump" 10+ times during NYC rally?	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	win

Tech 87% +$203 $6,138 vol · 39 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	Yes	78¢	51¢	+$1	win
Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	No	97¢	49¢	$-80	loss
Will MrBeast say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his next video?	No	98¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will "Software" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Melania say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during statement on April 9?	No	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will "Silicon Valley" be said 2+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	No	98¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will "Software" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Bernie Sanders say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" at the rally on Saturday?	Yes	89¢	100¢	+$10	win
Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Jensen Huang say "Anthropic" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$2	win

Mentions 77% +$187 $6,483 vol · 84 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?	No	99¢	99¢	$-0	loss
Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?	No	99¢	92¢	$-6	loss
Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?	No	96¢	92¢	$-3	loss
Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026?	No	99¢	95¢	$-1	loss
Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Ted Cruz post 40-59 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026?	No	74¢	97¢	+$35	win
Will Khamenei post 60+ posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	No	99¢	100¢	$-1	loss
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	No	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?	No	98¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$1	win

Elections 74% +$178 $10,369 vol · 32 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	99¢	75¢	$-10	loss
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Leavitt say "Voter ID" or "VoterID" during the next White House Press Briefing?	No	98¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Tarique Rahman be the next Prime Minister of Bangladesh after the Parliamentary election?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will turnout in the 2026 Japanese snap election be between 56% and 58%?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will Reiwa Shinsengumi loose any seats in Japanese snap election?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will the Centrist Reform Alliance win the second-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will the Japan Innovation Party win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Team Mirai loose any seats in Japanese snap election?	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the Democratic Party for the People win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win

Crypto 82% +$107 $9,956 vol · 96 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Binance launch stock tokens in 2026?	Yes	83¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first?	70k	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Jordan Faeth get engaged on Love is Blind: Ohio?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will "Coincidence" or "Coincidental" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience of the week? (April 13)	No	98¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during NYC rally?	No	99¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will "Bitcoin" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience of the week? (April 6)	No	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Hegseth's remarks not air?	No	95¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Hegseth say "Asset" during press conference?	Yes	82¢	0¢	$-20	loss
Will "Coin" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	No	97¢	100¢	+$9	win
Will "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29)	No	99¢	100¢	+$2	win

Geopolitics 88% +$26 $13,387 vol · 103 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Mark Rutte say "Artificial intelligence / AI" during meeting with Prime Minister of Czechia?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Mark Rutte say "Ally" or "Allied" or "Alliance" during meeting with Prime Minister of Czechia?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Nuclear" during NYC rally?	No	99¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will "Military" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience of the week? (April 6)	No	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Mark Rutte say "Ceasefire" 3+ times during his speech on April 9?	No	99¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Melania say "Nuclear" during statement on April 9?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Hegseth say "Israeli" or "Israel" during press conference?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will "Israel" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience for the week (April 5)?	No	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Military action against Iran ends on March 14, 2026?	No	98¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will "Russia" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29)	No	94¢	100¢	+$2	win

Culture 94% +$16 $3,504 vol · 35 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Emma Betsinger get engaged on Love is Blind: Ohio?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will "Netflix" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	No	96¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will Owen Cooper win Best Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?	Yes	87¢	100¢	$-4	loss
Will "Epstein" be said at the Oscars?	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Adam Sandler win Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?	No	94¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Sesame Street win Best Children's Program at the 37th PGA Awards?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will 100 Foot Wave win Best Sports Program at the 37th PGA Awards?	No	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Daniel Radcliffe say "Grammy" or "Tony" on Hot Ones?	No	98¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Train Dreams win Best Cinematography at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will Seen & Heard: The History of Black Television win Best New Non-Scripted or Documentary Series at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?	No	99¢	100¢	+$1	win

Economy 80% +$5 $411 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Canada’s January 2026 unemployment rate be ≤6.5%?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q4 2025 be over 2.5%?	No	99¢	100¢	$-0	loss
Will the U.K.'s September–November 2025 unemployment rate be ≥5.4%?	No	97¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Germany GDP growth in Q4 2025 be above 0.4%?	No	91¢	0¢	+$1	win

Esports 67% $-64 $3,923 vol · 16 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
LoL: FURIA Esports vs Leviatan Esports - Game 1 Winner	FURIA Esports	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Counter-Strike: Pigeons vs los kogutos - Map 1 Winner	los kogutos	98¢	0¢	$-30	loss
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Zero Tenacity (BO3)	Team Liquid	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Yellow Submarine (BO3)	Yellow Submarine	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Dota 2: Kalmychata vs VP.Prodigy (BO3)	Kalmychata	98¢	0¢	$-3	loss
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs SPARTA (BO3)	SPARTA	98¢	100¢	+$11	win
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO3)	Team Yandex	75¢	100¢	$-19	loss
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner	Virtus.pro	98¢	100¢	+$13	win
Dota 2: OG vs Tundra Esports (BO3)	Tundra Esports	93¢	100¢	+$5	win
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Virtus.pro (BO3)	Team Yandex	89¢	100¢	+$0	win

Finance 74% $-197 $6,709 vol · 57 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
xAI IPO before 2027?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will "Stock market" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	No	83¢	27¢	$-26	loss
Will "Pam" or "Bondi" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (February 22)	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will "Pam" or "Bondi" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week? (February 15)	No	97¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	60¢	0¢	$-127	loss
Will Coca-Cola say "Protein" during earnings call?	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Coca-Cola say "Dairy" during earnings call?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will S&P Global say "ETF" during earnings call?	No	100¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Peloton Interactive (PTON) beat quarterly earnings?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Eli Lilly say "Texas" during earnings call?	No	99¢	100¢	+$1	win

Weather 89% $-340 $18,927 vol · 181 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?	No	99¢	94¢	$-1	loss
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 18?	No	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 17?	No	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 17?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 16?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on April 16?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on April 16?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 15?	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 14?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 14?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win

Sports 80% $-521 $6,459 vol · 45 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Melania say "Soccer" during statement on April 9?	No	97¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Jon Rothstein tweet "This is March" 41–50 times during March Madness?	No	90¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will "War" or "Conflict" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience for the week (April 5)?	No	95¢	100¢	+$13	win
Will "War" or "Conflict" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience for the week (April 5)?	Yes	90¢	0¢	$-31	loss
Will JD Vance say "Inflation" 3+ times during Michigan visit?	No	98¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will "Olympic" or "Olympics" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 8)	No	99¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will "Super Bowl" or "Big Game" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (February 22)	No	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Coinbase say "Web3" during earnings call?	No	99¢	100¢	$-5	loss
Will "Olympic" or "Olympics" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience this week? (February 15)	No	96¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will Paul George attend the 2026 NBA All-Star Game?	No	95¢	100¢	+$0	—