Win rate
80.6%
87 W / 21 L
Total PnL
$270,072
realized $-189,161 · unrealized $459,233
Portfolio
$459,233
volume $4,499,570
Predictions
107
2.9/day · avg $42,052
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 19/02/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 84% +$221,595
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 54¢ | 0¢ | $-130,676 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$23,361 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$1,890 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | 84¢ | 91¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | $-582 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 68¢ | 76¢ | +$13,579 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 69¢ | 84¢ | +$3,732 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 70¢ | 0¢ | $-14,467 | loss |
| US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026? | Yes | 47¢ | 100¢ | +$1,579 | win |
| Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | No | 77¢ | 96¢ | +$221 | win |
Other 77% +$46,422
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 88¢ | 48¢ | $-165 | loss |
| Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? | No | 70¢ | 84¢ | +$100 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? | No | 90¢ | 96¢ | $-135 | loss |
| Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? | No | 76¢ | 81¢ | +$82 | win |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? | No | 96¢ | 99¢ | +$323 | win |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in April? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 88¢ | 64¢ | $-40 | loss |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? | No | 93¢ | 79¢ | +$713 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 81¢ | 100¢ | $-3,613 | loss |
Sports 100% +$71
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 58¢ | 61¢ | +$71 | win |
Politics 71% $-314
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 99¢ | +$11 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$1,380 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Yes | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-1,605 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 85.8¢ | 100¢ | +$225 | $1,375 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 57.5¢ | 92¢ | +$21,003 | $37,592 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$400 | $4,930 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 92.5¢ | 0¢ | +$134 | $2,000 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 49.7¢ | 92¢ | +$37,782 | $45,962 | 07/04/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 52.6¢ | 100¢ | +$53,294 | $59,100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | No | 86.5¢ | 100¢ | +$10,293 | $66,926 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$8,281 | $216,407 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? | No | 83.3¢ | 100¢ | +$7,053 | $39,100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | 79.2¢ | 100¢ | +$3,019 | $27,227 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? | No | 87.4¢ | 100¢ | +$2,232 | $18,029 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | No | 91.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1,454 | $19,505 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | No | 93.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1,380 | $24,659 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? | No | 92.3¢ | 100¢ | +$615 | $10,481 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? | Yes | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$390 | $7,943 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? | Yes | 91.4¢ | 100¢ | +$278 | $2,945 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? | Yes | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$143 | $1,200 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? | No | 85.8¢ | 100¢ | +$79 | $600 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$63 | $1,400 | 31/03/2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: March | Nothing | 45.8¢ | 60¢ | +$54 | $135 | 31/03/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 88.7¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $449 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? | No | 94.2¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $1,424 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? | No | 94.6¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $500 | 31/03/2026 |
| US strikes Iraq by March 31 | Yes | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $160 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | Yes | 61.7¢ | 0¢ | $-146 | $384 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | Yes | 78.5¢ | 0¢ | $-237 | $890 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | Yes | 41.0¢ | 0¢ | $-256 | $500 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Yes | 47.3¢ | 0¢ | $-1,605 | $3,000 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | $-3,613 | $27,064 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March? | No | 71.5¢ | 0¢ | $-967 | $967 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026? | Yes | 74.8¢ | 100¢ | +$336 | $1,000 | 10/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026? | Yes | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$321 | $10,320 | 10/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026? | Yes | 90.9¢ | 100¢ | +$299 | $3,000 | 10/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026? | Yes | 79.4¢ | 100¢ | +$259 | $1,000 | 10/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026? | Yes | 89.7¢ | 100¢ | +$231 | $2,000 | 10/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026? | Yes | 82.9¢ | 100¢ | +$206 | $1,000 | 10/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? | Yes | 94.4¢ | 100¢ | +$158 | $2,666 | 10/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026? | Yes | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $1,600 | 10/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026? | Yes | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $1,372 | 10/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Yes | 35.1¢ | 100¢ | +$67,292 | $36,481 | 28/02/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before US x Iran ceasefire? | No | 85.6¢ | 100¢ | +$330 | $1,968 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | No | 85.9¢ | 100¢ | +$297 | $1,984 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31? | No | 91.1¢ | 100¢ | +$116 | $1,320 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | No | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$112 | $6,000 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will UK strike Iran by March 31? | No | 93.4¢ | 100¢ | +$66 | $1,331 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | $1,000 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $1,000 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? | No | 33.2¢ | 0¢ | $-60 | $66 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Iran strike Israel on March 10? | Yes | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | $-816 | $2,997 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Yes | 50.4¢ | 100¢ | $-911 | $11,399 | 01/01/1970 |