shangri-laa

Geopolitics 60% +$1,652 $9,032 vol · 43 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	36¢	30¢	$-9	loss
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	39¢	74¢	+$58	win
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	55¢	82¢	+$144	win
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?	Yes	16¢	0¢	$-22	loss
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	No	27¢	6¢	$-68	loss
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	11¢	1¢	$-37	loss
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	55¢	71¢	$-11	loss
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	Yes	55¢	100¢	$-3	loss
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	Yes	35¢	92¢	+$137	win
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 10, 2026?	No	32¢	100¢	+$84	win

Politics 67% +$433 $1,225 vol · 10 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?	Yes	14¢	0¢	$-28	loss
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?	Yes	61¢	100¢	+$21	win
Will Trump talk to Friedrich Merz in April?	Yes	95¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	No	42¢	68¢	+$223	win
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	Yes	39¢	50¢	+$35	win
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?	No	69¢	90¢	$-4	loss
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?	Yes	15¢	0¢	$-36	loss
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?	Yes	43¢	100¢	+$156	win
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	26¢	14¢	+$1	win

Other 50% +$335 $1,411 vol · 8 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	68¢	64¢	$-5	loss
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	30¢	35¢	+$12	win
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	61¢	42¢	$-14	loss
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	Yes	48¢	0¢	+$205	win
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?	No	33¢	100¢	+$173	win
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	Yes	22¢	6¢	+$9	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	42¢	40¢	$-13	loss
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15?	Yes	11¢	0¢	$-32	loss

Crypto 0% $-20 $20 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Up	1¢	0¢	$-20	loss