Win rate
6.1%
35 W / 536 L
Total PnL
$1,116
realized $35 · unrealized $1,081
Portfolio
$1,081
volume $551,812
Predictions
3,983
320.5/day · avg $139
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 02/04/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Weather 0% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April 2026? | No | 72¢ | 73¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in March 2026? | No | 59¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
Finance 0% $-0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day? | No | 50¢ | 56¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on IPO day? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close on IPO day? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Stripe’s market cap be less than $80B at market close on IPO day? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Arxis’s market cap be between $11B and $12B at market close on IPO day? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | loss |
| Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.25T and 1.50T? | No | 96¢ | 84¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? | No | 78¢ | 78¢ | +$0 | — |
Culture 14% $-68
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will "Untold: Jail Blazers" be the top global Netflix movie this week? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 52m? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will "Bully - Ye" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of April 25? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will "Bandi: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 90m? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? | No | 80¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m? | Yes | 70¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will "ONE PIECE: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will "The Creator" be the top global Netflix movie this week? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Mentions 7% $-206
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | +$-0 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$-0 | loss |
| Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will CZ post 0-19 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 0¢ | +$-0 | loss |
| Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will CZ post 120-139 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
Crypto 7% $-242
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? | No | 88¢ | 84¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will "Elizabeth Taylor - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of April 25? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 17? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | loss |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on April 16? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on April 16? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on April 16? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on April 15? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on April 15? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | loss |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 15? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | loss |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 15? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
Politics 6% $-348
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Charles Gambaro be the Republican nominee for FL-06? | No | 94¢ | 95¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will DeVante Hill be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Andy Levin win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Jordan Wood be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in Australia? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Harris Dickinson announced as next James Bond? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Donald Trump announce Matt Gaetz as the next United States Attorney General by June 30? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Christina Loren Clement be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Sports 12% $-715
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 NL West title? | No | 97¢ | 96¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Washington Nationals win the 2026 NL East title? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Carlos Alcaraz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? | No | 67¢ | 65¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 85¢ | 85¢ | $-156 | loss |
| Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Amen Thompson win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-87 | loss |
| Will Charles Lee win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-9 | loss |
Tech 9% $-757
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | No | 89¢ | 90¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Meta have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? | No | 96¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Meta have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? | No | 99¢ | 88¢ | +$-0 | loss |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? | No | 93¢ | 94¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)? | No | 99¢ | 96¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Meta have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? | No | 97¢ | 95¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Economy 17% $-1,770
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 95¢ | 96¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be less than 0.7%? | No | 97¢ | 90¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.7%? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Bank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-1,581 | loss |
| No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 4¢ | 7¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be at least 6.0%? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | win |
Other 4% $-1,979
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026? | No | 90¢ | 91¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Rick Reider be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Kirk Cousins play for Washington Commanders in 2026-27? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-33 | loss |
| Will Baidu have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? | No | 96¢ | 95¢ | +$0 | — |
Geopolitics 0% $-2,527
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | No | 96¢ | 95¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting? | No | 93¢ | 90¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Israel be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | +$0 | — |
| Military action against Iran ends on April 21, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-183 | loss |
| Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the April Meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will "Arirang - BTS" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of April 25? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Elections 4% $-2,545
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | No | 47¢ | 48¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Rebecca Bligh win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Québec solidaire win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will Aldo Rebelo finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will David Hughes win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 90¢ | 90¢ | $-164 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | No | 8.8¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $22 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Divya Deshmukh win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament? | No | 95.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $30 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will White House post 80-99 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $94 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $23 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $30 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will qwen3.5-max-preview be the best AI model on April 17, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $52 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Aleksandra Goryachkina win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $59 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.5 and 4.0%? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $129 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Khamenei post 60+ posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $21 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $252 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $23 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will dola-seed-2.0-preview be the best AI model on April 17, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $40 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Praggnanandhaa R win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $151 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.5%? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $1,231 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $23 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $104 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Wei Yi win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $152 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Tan Zhongyi win the 2026 FIDE Women's Candidates Tournament? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $31 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will gemini-3-pro be the best AI model on April 17, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $52 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will kimi-k2.5-thinking be the best AI model on April 17, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $52 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 3.5%? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $129 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $234 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $146 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will gemini-2.5-pro be the best AI model on April 17, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $44 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $21 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.5% and 6.0%? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $1,231 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will CZ post 180-199 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | $43 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will CZ post 120-139 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | $43 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 17? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | $57 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will CZ post 100-119 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | $43 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on April 17? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | $58 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 17? | No | 99.7¢ | 98¢ | +$-0 | $57 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | $30 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | $30 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | $104 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will NYC Mayor post 180-199 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | $30 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will NYC Mayor post 100-119 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | $30 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | $23 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will gemini-3.1-pro-preview be the best AI model on April 17, 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | $52 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 17? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | $58 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 99.0¢ | 98¢ | +$-0 | $23 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Khamenei post 50-54 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | $21 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 99.0¢ | 99¢ | +$-0 | $23 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will gpt-5.4-high be the best AI model on April 17, 2026? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | $52 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $21 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 98.5¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | $103 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Khamenei post 45-49 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $21 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will grok-4.20-beta1 be the best AI model on April 17, 2026? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $52 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on April 17, 2026? | No | 98.4¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | $51 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will gemini-3-flash be the best AI model on April 17, 2026? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $52 | 17/04/2026 |