Win rate
56.5%
100 W / 77 L
Total PnL
$227
realized $-2,204 · unrealized $2,431
Portfolio
$2,431
volume $69,211
Predictions
317
16.0/day · avg $218
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 22/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Politics 67% +$61
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 93¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | No | 85¢ | 84¢ | +$2 | win |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 83¢ | 84¢ | +$0 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? | Yes | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$63 | win |
| Trump out as President by June 30? | No | 92¢ | 94¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 84¢ | 83¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026? | No | 70¢ | 88¢ | +$6 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | 40¢ | 42¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 37.0% in April? | No | 95¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 39.0% in April? | Yes | 64¢ | 45¢ | $-4 | loss |
Other 51% +$45
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 89¢ | 92¢ | +$6 | win |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 93¢ | 93¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 93¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | No | 77¢ | 76¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 84¢ | 82¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? | No | 87¢ | 89¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | No | 84¢ | 84¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? | No | 86¢ | 90¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the DHS shutdown end between April 16-19 2026? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? | Yes | 62¢ | 28¢ | $-22 | loss |
Elections 62% +$40
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain snap election called in 2026? | Yes | 50¢ | 22¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Spain snap election called in 2026? | No | 67¢ | 78¢ | +$25 | win |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 87¢ | 88¢ | +$0 | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | Yes | 42¢ | 52¢ | +$26 | win |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 57¢ | 18¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? | Yes | 50¢ | 18¢ | +$53 | win |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 64¢ | 82¢ | $-41 | loss |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%? | Yes | 29¢ | 90¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 30¢ | 1¢ | +$1 | win |
| Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026? | No | 93¢ | 93¢ | +$8 | win |
Geopolitics 66% +$25
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 69¢ | 74¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 89¢ | 91¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 87¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | — |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | No | 66¢ | 30¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | 88¢ | 91¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 81¢ | 82¢ | +$1 | win |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 27¢ | 58¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30? | No | 95¢ | 93¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30? | No | 73¢ | 83¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? | Yes | 50¢ | 4¢ | $-39 | loss |
Sports 50% +$1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $90 Week of April 13 2026? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in March 2026 be between 3.1% and 3.3%? | Yes | 62¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
Tech 0% $-0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $180 Week of April 13 2026? | No | 59¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
Finance 37% $-27
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? | Yes | 64¢ | 44¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December? | Yes | 40¢ | 32¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? | No | 41¢ | 56¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? | Yes | 80¢ | 38¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,150 (HIGH) in June? | No | 66¢ | 17¢ | $-3 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 16? | Up | 61¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 16? | Down | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 15? | Down | 47¢ | 0¢ | $-47 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 14? | Up | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 10? | Down | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on April 17, 2026? | No | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $25 | 18/04/2026 |
| Trump approval Up or Down this week? | Up | 96.4¢ | 99¢ | +$11 | $170 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.5 on April 17, 2026? | No | 52.9¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $39 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $74 Week of April 13 2026? | Yes | 89.8¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $27 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $180 Week of April 13 2026? | No | 59.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $20 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $70 Week of April 13 2026? | Yes | 58.0¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $20 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $90 Week of April 13 2026? | No | 91.1¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $118 | 17/04/2026 |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 17? | Down | 50.0¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $20 | 17/04/2026 |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 16? | Up | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $43 | 16/04/2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 16? | Up | 61.0¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $30 | 16/04/2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 16? | Down | 19.1¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | $25 | 16/04/2026 |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 15? | Up | 51.5¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | $52 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 90.9¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $974 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $127 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 82.1¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $53 | 15/04/2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 15? | Down | 46.7¢ | 0¢ | $-47 | $47 | 15/04/2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 14? | Up | 63.0¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | $94 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in March 2026 be between 3.1% and 3.3%? | Yes | 62.0¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $56 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 4 and 7 on April 12, 2026? | Yes | 21.8¢ | 100¢ | +$72 | $37 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? | Yes | 50.0¢ | 18¢ | +$53 | $40 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $25 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 50-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12? | Yes | 18.1¢ | 0¢ | +$13 | $31 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%? | Yes | 38.0¢ | 9¢ | +$4 | $44 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 93.5¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $56 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 30.2¢ | 1¢ | +$1 | $21 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12? | No | 74.3¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $126 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12? | Yes | 18.1¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | $31 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by at least 5%? | Yes | 29.1¢ | 90¢ | $-14 | $81 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 57.0¢ | 18¢ | $-17 | $62 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12? | Yes | 18.1¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $31 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 20-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12? | Yes | 18.1¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $31 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 30-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12? | No | 91.8¢ | 100¢ | $-34 | $248 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 63.7¢ | 82¢ | $-41 | $52 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 35.8¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 12/04/2026 |
| Trump approval Up or Down this week? | Up | 90.4¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $276 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on April 10, 2026? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $40 | 11/04/2026 |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on April 10? | Up | 47.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $24 | 10/04/2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 10? | Down | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $50 | 10/04/2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 10? | Up | 46.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $46 | 10/04/2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 9? | Up | 36.8¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | $31 | 09/04/2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 9? | Down | 59.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $30 | 09/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 7.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $28 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 44.3¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $22 | 07/04/2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 6? | Down | 57.0¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | $28 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5? | No | 85.4¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $34 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5? | No | 93.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $66 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $25 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | $-11 | $32 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-April 5? | No | 94.2¢ | 0¢ | $-27 | $57 | 05/04/2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 2? | Up | 47.0¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | $24 | 02/04/2026 |