Win rate
31.0%
18 W / 40 L
Total PnL
$-364
realized $-950 · unrealized $587
Portfolio
$587
volume $14,443
Predictions
22
0.3/day · avg $656
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 22/02/2022 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Elections 30% +$269
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election? | Yes | 53¢ | 59¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Tatiana Auguste win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada? | Yes | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | win |
| Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election? | Yes | 67¢ | 50¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Democratic | 44¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will the NDA win 300-325 seats? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | $-177 | loss |
| Indian Election: Modi reelected? | No | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | loss |
Crypto 27% $-10
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 70 by April 30? | No | 68¢ | 94¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will the Ethereum Merge (EIP-3675) occur by October 1, 2022? | No | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the Ethereum Merge (EIP-3675) occur by October 1, 2022? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | $-29 | loss |
| Will $ETH be above $1,600 on July 29? | No | 65¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will $ETH be above $1,600 on July 29? | Yes | 35¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will $ETH be above $1,200 on July 22? | Yes | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | win |
| Will $ETH be above $1,200 on July 22? | No | 38¢ | 0¢ | $-47 | loss |
| Will $ETH be above $1,000 on July 8? | No | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will $ETH be above $1,000 on July 8? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | $-16 | loss |
| Will $ETH be above $1,200 on July 1? | No | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
Economy 0% $-28
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be a recession in Q2 of 2022? | Yes | 81¢ | 100¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will the Fed set interest rates above 2.50% (100 bps or more) after their scheduled July meeting? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
Politics 20% $-36
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 61¢ | 60¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Trump announce tariffs on Germany on April 2? | Yes | 20¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | loss |
| [Single Market] Will Joe Biden win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 72¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Gay Marriage pass the U.S. Senate? | Yes | 73¢ | 100¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will Joe Biden's FiveThirtyEight approval rating be 39.0% or higher on August 4? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Geopolitics 0% $-48
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 76¢ | 76¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will NATO expand in 2022? | Yes | 72¢ | 0¢ | $-47 | loss |
| Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan before September 2022? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
Sports 60% $-68
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will U.S. inflation be more than 0.5% from June to July 2022? | No | 62¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will U.S. inflation be more than 0.3% from June to July 2022? | Yes | 79¢ | 0¢ | $-72 | loss |
| Will U.S. inflation be more than 0.9% from May to June 2022? | Yes | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Other 35% $-446
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Yes | 34¢ | 34¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Mumbai Indians win the 2026 Indian Premier League? | No | 81¢ | 92¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 75¢ | 99¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will Oracle buy TikTok? | No | 39¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | win |
| Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Yes | 65¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| LayerZero airdrop in 2023? | No | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Arbitrum airdrop by March 31st? | No | 74¢ | 0¢ | $-150 | loss |
| Will Penny Mordaunt be the next UK Conservative Party Leader? | No | 66¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Rishi Sunak be the next UK Conservative Party Leader? | Yes | 49¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | loss |
| Will Boris Johnson remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through August? | No | 58¢ | 0¢ | $-75 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tatiana Auguste win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada? | Yes | 66.7¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $75 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 75.3¢ | 99¢ | +$23 | $75 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)) win the most seats in the 2026 Kerala Legislative Assembly election? | Yes | 67.4¢ | 50¢ | $-19 | $75 | 09/04/2026 |
| Will Oracle buy TikTok? | No | 39.0¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $37 | 30/06/2025 |
| Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Yes | 65.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $47 | 28/04/2025 |
| Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election? | Yes | 77.9¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | $175 | 28/04/2025 |
| Will Trump announce tariffs on Germany on April 2? | Yes | 20.0¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | $20 | 02/04/2025 |
| Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Democratic | 44.0¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $569 | 08/11/2024 |
| [Single Market] Will Joe Biden win the U.S. 2024 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 71.6¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | $196 | 09/08/2024 |
| Will the NDA win less than 300 seats? | Yes | 22.2¢ | 100¢ | +$780 | $325 | 04/06/2024 |
| Will the NDA win 326-350 seats? | Yes | 19.3¢ | 0¢ | $-155 | $175 | 04/06/2024 |
| Will the NDA win 351-375 seats? | Yes | 20.4¢ | 0¢ | $-165 | $241 | 04/06/2024 |
| Will the NDA win 300-325 seats? | Yes | 22.5¢ | 0¢ | $-177 | $177 | 04/06/2024 |
| Indian Election: Modi reelected? | No | 2.9¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | $96 | 30/05/2024 |
| LayerZero airdrop in 2023? | No | 56.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $60 | 31/12/2023 |
| Arbitrum airdrop by March 31st? | No | 74.5¢ | 0¢ | $-150 | $157 | 31/03/2023 |
| Will NATO expand in 2022? | Yes | 72.5¢ | 0¢ | $-47 | $324 | 01/01/2023 |
| Will Penny Mordaunt be the next UK Conservative Party Leader? | No | 65.5¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | $300 | 31/12/2022 |
| Will Gay Marriage pass the U.S. Senate? | Yes | 72.8¢ | 100¢ | $-12 | $388 | 31/12/2022 |
| Will Rishi Sunak be the next UK Conservative Party Leader? | Yes | 49.3¢ | 0¢ | $-55 | $328 | 31/12/2022 |
| Will the Ethereum Merge (EIP-3675) occur by October 1, 2022? | No | 34.6¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | $83 | 01/10/2022 |
| Will the Ethereum Merge (EIP-3675) occur by October 1, 2022? | Yes | 69.7¢ | 100¢ | $-29 | $401 | 01/10/2022 |
| Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan before September 2022? | Yes | 90.4¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $97 | 01/09/2022 |
| Will Boris Johnson remain Prime Minister of the United Kingdom through August? | No | 58.4¢ | 0¢ | $-75 | $206 | 31/08/2022 |
| Will U.S. inflation be more than 0.7% from June to July 2022? | No | 83.5¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $299 | 10/08/2022 |
| Will U.S. inflation be more than 0.5% from June to July 2022? | Yes | 47.4¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $153 | 10/08/2022 |
| Will U.S. inflation be more than 0.5% from June to July 2022? | No | 62.3¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $277 | 10/08/2022 |
| Will U.S. inflation be more than 0.3% from June to July 2022? | Yes | 78.5¢ | 0¢ | $-72 | $396 | 10/08/2022 |
| Will natural gas close above $8 on August 8, 2022? | Yes | 53.4¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | $97 | 08/08/2022 |
| Will Joe Biden's FiveThirtyEight approval rating be 39.0% or higher on August 4? | Yes | 80.4¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $95 | 04/08/2022 |
| Will USD overtake EUR again by August 1? | No | 77.2¢ | 100¢ | $-91 | $311 | 01/08/2022 |
| Will natural gas close above $8 on August 1, 2022? | Yes | 80.1¢ | 100¢ | $-144 | $212 | 01/08/2022 |
| Will $ETH be above $1,600 on July 29? | No | 65.2¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $207 | 29/07/2022 |
| Will $ETH be above $1,600 on July 29? | Yes | 34.8¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | $111 | 29/07/2022 |
| Will there be a recession in Q2 of 2022? | Yes | 80.6¢ | 100¢ | $-22 | $803 | 28/07/2022 |
| Will the Fed set interest rates above 2.50% (100 bps or more) after their scheduled July meeting? | No | 82.7¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $588 | 27/07/2022 |
| Will $ETH be above $1,200 on July 22? | Yes | 61.2¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | $121 | 22/07/2022 |
| Will natural gas close above $7 on July 22, 2022? | Yes | 68.9¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $50 | 22/07/2022 |
| Will $ETH be above $1,200 on July 22? | No | 38.5¢ | 0¢ | $-47 | $79 | 22/07/2022 |
| Will the price of a barrel of crude oil be $100 or more on July 18, 2022? | No | 54.1¢ | 0¢ | +$28 | $184 | 18/07/2022 |
| Will natural gas close above $6 on July 18, 2022? | Yes | 74.6¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $51 | 18/07/2022 |
| Will the price of a barrel of crude oil be $100 or more on July 18, 2022? | Yes | 61.7¢ | 100¢ | $-29 | $128 | 18/07/2022 |
| Will U.S. inflation be more than 0.9% from May to June 2022? | Yes | 65.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $131 | 13/07/2022 |
| Will the price of a barrel of crude oil be $110 or more on July 11, 2022? | No | 86.7¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $200 | 11/07/2022 |
| Will $ETH be above $1,000 on July 8? | No | 16.3¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | $118 | 08/07/2022 |
| Will $ETH be above $1,000 on July 8? | Yes | 92.3¢ | 100¢ | $-16 | $994 | 08/07/2022 |
| Will $ETH be above $1,200 on July 1? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $184 | 01/07/2022 |
| Will $ETH be above $1,200 on July 1? | Yes | 51.6¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $59 | 01/07/2022 |
| Will the price of a barrel of crude oil be $105 or more on June 30, 2022? | Yes | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $180 | 30/06/2022 |
| Will natural gas close above $6 on June 30, 2022? | Yes | 85.4¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | $254 | 30/06/2022 |