Win rate
58.5%
936 W / 663 L
Total PnL
$70,565
realized $33,694 · unrealized $36,871
Portfolio
$36,871
volume $7,231,440
Predictions
1,488
9.4/day · avg $4,860
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 30/03/2023 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Politics 60% +$27,694
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 83¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | No | 57¢ | 0¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027? | No | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-15 | loss |
| Will Kristi Noem be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | No | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-162 | loss |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | No | 60¢ | 0¢ | $-281 | loss |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon before 2027? | No | 74¢ | 76¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026? | No | 64¢ | 76¢ | +$599 | win |
| Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country? | No | 50¢ | 99¢ | +$277 | win |
Other 61% +$25,682
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US strike Syria next? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-222 | loss |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$3,286 | win |
| Will the US strike Syria next? | Yes | 31¢ | 0¢ | $-701 | loss |
| Will the US strike Yemen next? | No | 26¢ | 100¢ | +$334 | win |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | Yes | 24¢ | 16¢ | +$293 | win |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$125 | win |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | No | 24¢ | 0¢ | +$84 | win |
| Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok? | Yes | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$59 | win |
| Will Warner Bros. Discovery be acquired before 2027? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will the US strike Somalia next? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Geopolitics 57% +$12,957
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$1,416 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 49¢ | 100¢ | +$1,001 | win |
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | +$837 | win |
| Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? | No | 54¢ | 72¢ | +$41 | win |
| Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? | Yes | 46¢ | 28¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | Yes | 42¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | 50¢ | 70¢ | +$0 | — |
| Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first? | Ceasefire | 61¢ | 100¢ | $-129 | loss |
| Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first? | Leadership Change | 54¢ | 0¢ | $-232 | loss |
Tech 64% +$2,441
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? | No | 81¢ | 81¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Apple stop selling MacBook Neo? | Yes | 10¢ | 21¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will Apple release AirTag 2 by June 30? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Apple AirTags 2 priced below $30 USD at release? | No | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | loss |
| Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 5¢ | $-77 | loss |
| GPT ads by March 31? | No | 3¢ | 0¢ | +$200 | win |
| Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of March 23 above $275? | No | 16¢ | 100¢ | +$1,686 | win |
| Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $360-$370 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27? | Yes | 55¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
| Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $360-$370 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27? | No | 57¢ | 100¢ | $-131 | loss |
| Will "Ultra-wide" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4? | No | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Economy 57% +$2,302
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession in 2025? | No | 61¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$342 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | No | 20¢ | 0¢ | +$54 | win |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 21¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
| No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | No | 22¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| No change in Bank of England's interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-115 | loss |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-677 | loss |
| Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be between 1.0% and 1.5%? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | $-24 | loss |
| No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-68 | loss |
| Successful Houthi attack on shipping by September 30? | Yes | 66¢ | 100¢ | $-132 | loss |
Sports 58% +$305
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on April 8? | Up | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$899 | win |
| Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2025? | Yes | 56¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in October? | Yes | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-197 | loss |
| Another dildo thrown at WNBA game by August 10? | Yes | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in May? | No | 48¢ | 0¢ | $-373 | loss |
| Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in February? | Yes | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-70 | loss |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in February? | Yes | 57¢ | 0¢ | $-86 | loss |
| Grizzlies vs. Lakers | Lakers | 38¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | win |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | Spurs | 37¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
| Mavericks vs. Warriors | Mavericks | 57¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Weather 62% +$240
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$316 | win |
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-45 | loss |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8? | No | 83¢ | 0¢ | $-522 | loss |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8? | Yes | 71¢ | 100¢ | $-282 | loss |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 15? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | $-294 | loss |
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 15? | No | 79¢ | 100¢ | $-221 | loss |
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31? | Yes | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$108 | win |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31? | Yes | 19¢ | 0¢ | +$122 | win |
Mentions 50% +$39
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon tweet 150-174 times November 8-15? | No | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$99 | win |
| Will Elon tweet less than 150 times November 8-15? | Yes | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-108 | loss |
Elections 50% $-673
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 70¢ | 84¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-51 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Midterm" during Fox interview on Tuesday? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | Yes | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$56 | win |
| Ukraine election called in 2025? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
| Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 10–15%? | Yes | 36¢ | 0¢ | $-173 | loss |
| Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%? | No | 38¢ | 0¢ | $-270 | loss |
| Nepal snap election called by September 30? | No | 19¢ | 0¢ | +$189 | win |
| Nepal snap election called by September 30? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$50 | win |
Finance 55% $-777
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$404 | win |
| Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? | No | 81¢ | 28¢ | $-266 | loss |
| Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? | Yes | 70¢ | 72¢ | $-162 | loss |
| Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30? | Yes | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$1,318 | win |
| Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? | No | 87¢ | 88¢ | +$16 | win |
| Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30? | No | 50¢ | 0¢ | +$9 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 8? | Up | 58¢ | 100¢ | +$255 | win |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4% in 2025? | No | 28¢ | 0¢ | +$152 | win |
| NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025? | No | 55¢ | 100¢ | +$120 | win |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% in 2025? | Yes | 34¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
Culture 71% $-790
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jeremy Strong (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere) win Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will "Man Vs Baby" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025) | No | 73¢ | 0¢ | $-1,234 | loss |
| Will "Black to the Future" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m? | Yes | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$306 | win |
| Will "Black to the Future" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m? | No | 78¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | loss |
Crypto 49% $-2,986
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first? | 100k | 44¢ | 0¢ | $-94 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET | Up | 54¢ | 0¢ | $-247 | loss |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 31¢ | 100¢ | +$227 | win |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | No | 57¢ | 0¢ | $-52 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET | Up | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-213 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET | Down | 62¢ | 0¢ | $-395 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET | Up | 14¢ | 0¢ | +$483 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET | Down | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET | Up | 60¢ | 100¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET | Down | 25¢ | 0¢ | $-251 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17? | Yes | 10.9¢ | 1¢ | +$83 | $125 | 17/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Attorney General pick by April 17, 2026? | Yes | 16.1¢ | 1¢ | $-613 | $645 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 17, 2026? | No | 7.0¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $40 | 17/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 32.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2,943 | $43,518 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | No | 22.4¢ | 0¢ | +$1,519 | $1,236 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 9.0¢ | 0¢ | +$565 | $2,600 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 15, 2026? | No | 14.1¢ | 0¢ | +$141 | $56 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 42.9¢ | 90¢ | +$84 | $858 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 15, 2026? | Yes | 90.8¢ | 100¢ | $-171 | $698 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | $-2,344 | $5,363 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 26.4¢ | 0¢ | $-3,301 | $9,273 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $1,860 | 12/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | Yes | 25.0¢ | 0¢ | +$934 | $1,382 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 56.4¢ | 100¢ | +$607 | $1,837 | 10/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 50.2¢ | 100¢ | $-11 | $2,304 | 10/04/2026 |
| Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on April 8? | Up | 55.0¢ | 100¢ | +$899 | $1,100 | 08/04/2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 8? | Up | 57.9¢ | 100¢ | +$255 | $351 | 08/04/2026 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 8? | Down | 50.5¢ | 100¢ | +$210 | $215 | 08/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET | Up | 54.0¢ | 0¢ | $-247 | $247 | 08/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 51.1¢ | 100¢ | +$5,303 | $5,859 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 28.8¢ | 91¢ | +$2,724 | $4,006 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | No | 51.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $35 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 76.2¢ | 10¢ | $-1,076 | $8,063 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 12.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1,583 | $4,581 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5? | No | 88.3¢ | 100¢ | +$316 | $2,377 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? | Yes | 5.1¢ | 0¢ | +$426 | $49 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will there be between 6 and 9 US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? | No | 21.8¢ | 0¢ | +$228 | $176 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will there be between 6 and 9 US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? | Yes | 69.7¢ | 100¢ | +$159 | $2,141 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? | No | 84.4¢ | 100¢ | $-299 | $949 | 04/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 24.0¢ | 0¢ | +$4,372 | $5,351 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 78.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2,067 | $11,951 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3? | No | 73.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1,690 | $6,350 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? | Yes | 79.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1,235 | $9,591 | 31/03/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? | No | 43.8¢ | 100¢ | +$819 | $1,616 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31? | No | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$798 | $5,668 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | Yes | 28.1¢ | 0¢ | +$784 | $2,906 | 31/03/2026 |
| Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31? | Yes | 19.4¢ | 0¢ | +$739 | $1,724 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 17.9¢ | 0¢ | +$714 | $2,513 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | Yes | 34.0¢ | 0¢ | +$629 | $1,337 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$616 | $4,939 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | +$525 | $3,608 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31? | Yes | 62.6¢ | 100¢ | +$338 | $1,139 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31? | No | 51.2¢ | 100¢ | +$295 | $1,414 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 31.1¢ | 100¢ | +$227 | $422 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 49.9¢ | 100¢ | +$201 | $6,285 | 31/03/2026 |
| GPT ads by March 31? | No | 2.7¢ | 0¢ | +$200 | $262 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31? | Yes | 35.9¢ | 0¢ | +$168 | $560 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump cut off trade with Spain? | Yes | 8.0¢ | 0¢ | +$158 | $265 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 82.6¢ | 100¢ | +$152 | $13,302 | 31/03/2026 |
| Thailand x Cambodia military engagement by November 30, 2025? | Yes | 82.8¢ | 100¢ | +$136 | $1,413 | 31/03/2026 |