debased

Politics 50% +$625,893 $91,655,557 vol · 1223 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	50¢	39¢	+$0	—
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	50¢	61¢	+$0	—
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	0¢	1¢	+$67	win
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	100¢	99¢	$-8,817	loss
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	100¢	100¢	$-106,823	loss
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	100¢	100¢	$-302,463	loss
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Yes	14¢	8¢	+$30,292	win
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	17¢	10¢	+$704	win
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?	Yes	19¢	100¢	+$200	win
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?	Yes	9¢	6¢	+$25	win

Elections 47% +$379,982 $29,840,401 vol · 1489 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	25¢	19¢	+$0	—
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	94¢	98¢	$-4,577	loss
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	No	99¢	100¢	$-12,697	loss
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	Yes	99¢	100¢	$-14,323	loss
Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	Yes	32¢	0¢	$-14	loss
Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	Yes	71¢	100¢	+$22	win
Will the Democrats 66 win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	No	98¢	100¢	$-2,843	loss
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	17¢	10¢	+$1,131	win
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	79¢	90¢	$-1,067	loss
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	68¢	100¢	+$65	win

Other 50% +$330,453 $43,600,646 vol · 1698 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	3¢	0¢	+$475	win
Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	75¢	100¢	$-270	loss
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	17¢	7¢	+$12,576	win
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	12¢	10¢	+$1,965	win
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	17¢	20¢	+$1,111	win
Will the US capture Khamenei before 2027?	No	88¢	100¢	+$91	win
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	3¢	4¢	+$57	win
Insurrection Act invoked by January 31?	No	90¢	100¢	+$32	win
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	96¢	96¢	+$30	win
Will the US capture Khamenei before 2027?	Yes	12¢	0¢	$-69	loss

Geopolitics 54% +$180,752 $24,476,248 vol · 695 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	100¢	100¢	$-12,166	loss
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	34¢	33¢	+$88	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?	No	73¢	0¢	+$42	win
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	18¢	20¢	+$32,245	win
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	No	87¢	100¢	$-933	loss
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	Yes	8¢	12¢	+$1,453	win
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	30¢	36¢	+$1,627	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes	40¢	100¢	+$715	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	No	5¢	0¢	+$580	win
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	71¢	67¢	+$441	win

Economy 48% +$138,843 $28,858,595 vol · 161 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	49¢	0¢	$-191	loss
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	99¢	100¢	$-10,707	loss
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-485	loss
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?	No	100¢	100¢	$-45,176	loss
US recession in 2025?	No	60¢	100¢	+$836	win
US recession in 2025?	Yes	8¢	0¢	+$168	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	33¢	0¢	$-310,299	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	No	100¢	100¢	$-363,438	loss
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope?	Yes	1¢	0¢	+$1,805	win
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope?	No	90¢	100¢	$-1,530	loss

Sports 57% +$30,857 $4,686,193 vol · 296 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?	No	5¢	0¢	+$2,388	win
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$746	win
Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	26¢	100¢	+$1,931	win
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor	Tate	85¢	0¢	$-944	loss
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul?	Yes	86¢	100¢	$-16,863	loss
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?	No	97¢	100¢	$-66,503	loss
Who will win Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua?	Joshua	87¢	100¢	+$722	win
Will a dildo be thrown onto the court at a WNBA game on Saturday?	No	100¢	100¢	+$65	win
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-136	loss
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals?	No	99¢	100¢	$-43,801	loss

Crypto 52% +$17,724 $1,354,133 vol · 255 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?	Yes	5¢	0¢	+$222	win
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	93¢	98¢	+$179	win
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?	No	1¢	0¢	+$1,599	win
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?	Yes	99¢	100¢	$-1,525	loss
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?	No	6¢	0¢	$-20	loss
Will Base launch a token in 2025?	No	99¢	100¢	$-9,129	loss
Will Base launch a token in 2025?	Yes	0¢	0¢	+$9,972	win
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025?	Yes	2¢	0¢	+$1,942	win
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?	No	94¢	100¢	+$56	win
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$53	win

Culture 45% +$4,497 $157,220 vol · 60 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Lady Gaga win 2 Grammys?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$18	win
Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$14	win
Will SZA release a new song in 2025?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$10	win
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	99¢	100¢	$-7	loss
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?	No	87¢	100¢	$-271	loss
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?	Yes	83¢	100¢	$-734	loss
Will Death Stranding 2: On The Beach win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?	No	99¢	100¢	$-4,984	loss
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?	Yes	98¢	100¢	$-12,379	loss
Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?	No	34¢	0¢	$-75	loss

Weather 50% +$383 $2,418 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Obama say "Climate change" at DNC speech?	No	34¢	0¢	$-118	loss
Will there be widespread flooding in LA?	Yes	81¢	100¢	+$501	win

Mentions 58% +$327 $2,700 vol · 12 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Kanye tweet between 250-299 times February 8-14?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Kanye tweet between 200-249 times February 8-14?	Yes	91¢	100¢	$-91	loss
Will Ansem tweet again before SOL all time high?	Yes	95¢	100¢	+$32	win
Will Ansem tweet again before SOL all time high?	Yes	92¢	100¢	+$12	win
Will Elon tweet between 55 and 64 times?	Yes	23¢	0¢	$-28	loss
Will Elon tweet 75-84 times?	Yes	24¢	100¢	+$76	win
Will Elon tweet 95-104 times?	No	87¢	100¢	$-6	loss
Will Roaring Kitty tweet between 75 and 99 times?	Yes	37¢	100¢	+$256	win
Will Roaring Kitty tweet 100 or more times?	No	86¢	100¢	$-20	loss
Phantom post "retardio" in April?	No	76¢	100¢	+$101	win

Finance 45% $-1,532 $92,061 vol · 20 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$275	win
Circle IPO in 2025?	No	14¢	0¢	+$628	win
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025?	Yes	28¢	0¢	+$122	win
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025?	No	69¢	100¢	$-54	loss
Circle IPO in 2025?	Yes	94¢	100¢	$-741	loss
Fed rate hike in 2025?	Yes	0¢	0¢	+$3,444	win
Fed rate hike in 2025?	No	88¢	100¢	$-2,660	loss
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General in July?	No	97¢	100¢	+$12	win
$MSTR added to Nasdaq 100?	No	20¢	0¢	+$151	win
$MSTR added to Nasdaq 100?	Yes	99¢	100¢	$-133	loss

Tech 63% $-6,028 $1,527,878 vol · 88 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?	No	0¢	0¢	+$16,633	win
Will Apple release AirTag 2 by June 30?	Yes	98¢	100¢	$-925	loss
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?	Yes	100¢	100¢	$-16,188	loss
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	No	96¢	100¢	$-3,142	loss
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Yes	100¢	100¢	$-8,156	loss
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	Yes	4¢	0¢	+$1,894	win
Will the assassination of Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched news on Google this year?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$11	win
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	100¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	99¢	100¢	$-998	loss
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	No	100¢	100¢	$-2,559	loss