Win rate
71.6%
53 W / 21 L
Total PnL
$204
realized $-1,043 · unrealized $1,248
Portfolio
$1,248
volume $12,132
Predictions
104
2.5/day · avg $117
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 12/02/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 19/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 19/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 69% +$148
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | 64¢ | 70¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 81¢ | 100¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-62 | loss |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | 44¢ | 67¢ | +$26 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 52¢ | 66¢ | +$14 | win |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Kurds declare independence from Iran? | No | 79¢ | 92¢ | +$5 | win |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? | No | 79¢ | 90¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | No | 67¢ | 0¢ | $-54 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 81¢ | 92¢ | +$71 | win |
Politics 83% +$60
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 15¢ | 22¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 89¢ | 92¢ | +$0 | win |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | No | 75¢ | 84¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 43¢ | 60¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
Other 57% +$44
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 65¢ | 64¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 28¢ | 24¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| US strikes Iraq by March 7? | No | 33¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
Esports 100% +$28
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LoL: T1 Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - LCK Challengers League Kickoff Playoffs | Nongshim Esports Academy | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - LCK Challengers League Kickoff Playoffs | Nongshim Esports Academy | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | Top Esports | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Elections 50% +$10
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 67¢ | 64¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
Crypto 100% +$5
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Sports 83% $-37
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LoL: Cloud9 vs RED Canids (BO5) - Americas Cup Playoffs | Cloud9 | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| LoL: French Flair vs TLN Pirates (BO5) - LFL Invitational Playoffs | French Flair | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs | Gen.G | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| LoL: GIANTX vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs | Karmine Corp | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | Bilibili Gaming | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | Anyones Legend | 88¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 65.0¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $32 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $34 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 86.2¢ | 98¢ | +$5 | $34 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 59.7¢ | 79¢ | +$10 | $30 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 65.9¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $50 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $42 | 12/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 63.0¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $30 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 95.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $100 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 55.8¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | No | 69.1¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $64 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 66.1¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 67.5¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $51 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 72.5¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $70 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | US | 36.5¢ | 50¢ | +$13 | $36 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 87.8¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $75 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 86.4¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $52 | 31/03/2026 |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31? | No | 87.6¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $38 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | Yes | 58.0¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $35 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | 94.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $99 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 69.6¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $150 | 31/03/2026 |
| US strikes Iraq by March 7? | No | 33.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? | Yes | 11.9¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $25 | 15/03/2026 |
| LoL: Cloud9 vs RED Canids (BO5) - Americas Cup Playoffs | Cloud9 | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $98 | 06/03/2026 |
| LoL: French Flair vs TLN Pirates (BO5) - LFL Invitational Playoffs | French Flair | 92.3¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $47 | 04/03/2026 |
| Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? | Yes | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $49 | 03/03/2026 |
| LoL: T1 Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - LCK Challengers League Kickoff Playoffs | Nongshim Esports Academy | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $100 | 03/03/2026 |
| LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - LCK Challengers League Kickoff Playoffs | Nongshim Esports Academy | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $50 | 02/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 14? | No | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $50 | 01/03/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? | No | 94.6¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $76 | 01/03/2026 |
| LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs | Gen.G | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $97 | 01/03/2026 |
| LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | Top Esports | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $97 | 28/02/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | No | 62.6¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 28/02/2026 |
| LoL: GIANTX vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs | Karmine Corp | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $98 | 27/02/2026 |
| LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | Bilibili Gaming | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $48 | 27/02/2026 |
| LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | Anyones Legend | 88.0¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 26/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 84.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? | No | 45.0¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $27 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility? | Yes | 31.1¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $22 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $56 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Yes | 38.7¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $25 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $62 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? | No | 75.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $30 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Yes | 32.0¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | $20 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 77.0¢ | 57¢ | $-8 | $30 | 21/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 92.0¢ | 80¢ | $-6 | $49 | 22/04/2026 |
| Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? | No | 65.0¢ | 94¢ | +$17 | $39 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | No | 88.0¢ | 74¢ | $-6 | $40 | 30/04/2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 28.0¢ | 24¢ | $-8 | $25 | 30/04/2026 |