Pestle

Elections 18% +$342,659 $4,117,911 vol · 292 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	50¢	19¢	$-715	loss
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	99¢	99¢	$-999	loss
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	61¢	60¢	$-1	loss
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	No	100¢	100¢	$-26	loss
Will Jorge Pinto win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-3,528	loss
Will Pedro Tinoco de Faria win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	No	100¢	100¢	$-18	loss
Will Andrónico Rodríguez qualify for Bolivia’s presidential runoff?	Yes	9¢	0¢	+$39	win
Will the next Pope require 20 or more ballots?	No	50¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?	Yes	59¢	0¢	$-6	loss
Will the next Pope require 20 or more ballots?	Yes	50¢	0¢	$-50	loss

Economy 58% +$101,071 $61,869,312 vol · 48 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	1¢	0¢	+$54,744	win
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	100¢	100¢	$-673,308	loss
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	11¢	0¢	+$94,921	win
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?	No	100¢	100¢	$-2,580,392	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	17¢	0¢	+$319,085	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	No	100¢	100¢	$-2,931,082	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	32¢	0¢	+$11,927	win
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	No	100¢	100¢	$-750,275	loss
Will US GDP growth in Q3 2025 be less than 1.0%?	No	96¢	100¢	+$0	—
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?	Yes	17¢	0¢	$-168,859	loss

Other 34% +$60,555 $4,357,827 vol · 533 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$-6	loss
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?	No	79¢	70¢	+$0	—
Will the US strike Somalia next?	Yes	93¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	96¢	96¢	$-39	loss
EU dissolves before 2027?	No	96¢	96¢	$-46	loss
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	5¢	4¢	$-1,779	loss
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	Yes	14¢	48¢	+$796	win
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?	No	95¢	52¢	$-939	loss
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	No	100¢	100¢	+$590,788	win
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	Yes	49¢	0¢	$-591,050	loss

Geopolitics 50% +$36,480 $45,430 vol · 24 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	100¢	100¢	$-498	loss
US strikes Iran by March 14, 2026?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$6	win
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$-1,000	loss
UFC 326: Renato Moicano vs. Brian Ortega (Lightweight, Main Card)	Brian Ortega	50¢	50¢	+$0	—
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5	Under	46¢	100¢	+$37,741	win
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	8¢	0¢	+$300	win
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?	Yes	4¢	0¢	+$457	win
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?	No	96¢	100¢	$-458	loss
Israel x Syria security deal before September?	Yes	10¢	0¢	$-68	loss

Culture 43% +$29,644 $4,997,397 vol · 127 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 54m?	Yes	60¢	100¢	+$50	win
Will "Iron Lung" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 13m?	Yes	10¢	0¢	$-204	loss
Will "Iron Lung" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m?	No	54¢	0¢	$-1,441	loss
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-927	loss
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025?	No	100¢	100¢	$-260,740	loss
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?	No	100¢	100¢	$-9	loss
Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 150m and 163m?	Yes	50¢	0¢	$-2,806	loss
Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 175m?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?	Yes	13¢	0¢	$-3,026	loss
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 90m?	Yes	28¢	0¢	+$29	win

Finance 50% +$10,253 $8,840 vol · 6 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17?	Down	46¢	100¢	+$10,279	win
Will the next James Bond be British?	No	20¢	100¢	$-14	loss
Will Dell say "China" during earnings call?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the 10-year Treasury yield be between 4.4% and 4.5% on April 11?	No	50¢	0¢	+$0	—
Will the 10-year Treasury yield be between 4.3% and 4.4% on April 11?	Yes	50¢	0¢	$-12	loss

Tech 21% +$6,229 $315,463 vol · 40 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	No	0¢	0¢	+$95,006	win
Will no CEO be announced in 2025?	Yes	50¢	100¢	+$36	win
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone in 2025?	No	87¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	100¢	100¢	$-3	loss
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Yes	100¢	100¢	$-74,703	loss
Will Microsoft have the top AI model on October 31?	No	100¢	100¢	$-3	loss
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$14	win
Will Bernie Sanders say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his West Virginia speech on August 8?	No	46¢	0¢	$-580	loss
Will anyone say "Open Source" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?	No	17¢	100¢	+$837	win
Will anyone say "Open Source" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?	Yes	84¢	0¢	$-13	loss

Politics 48% +$4,480 $3,467,649 vol · 289 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	50¢	27¢	$-2,400	loss
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	50¢	39¢	$-118	loss
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	99¢	99¢	$-73,428	loss
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	100¢	99¢	$-184,206	loss
Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	No	32¢	52¢	+$0	—
Will Trump say "Ass" or "Shit" this week? (March 29)	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?	Yes	30¢	0¢	+$75	win
Will Joe Biden attend Dick Cheney's funeral?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will fewer than 210 house members vote “Yea” on an Epstein disclosure resolution/bill?	No	98¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will Trump deport less than 250,000?	No	91¢	100¢	+$0	—

Crypto 21% $-134 $178,220 vol · 103 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Big Game: Coin Toss	Heads	50¢	100¢	+$0	—
Big Game: Coin Toss	Tails	50¢	0¢	$-24	loss
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025?	No	96¢	100¢	$-3	loss
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September?	Yes	0¢	0¢	+$6,882	win
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September?	No	100¢	100¢	$-6,893	loss
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September?	No	100¢	100¢	$-17	loss
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,500 and $4,600 on September 25?	No	87¢	100¢	+$0	—
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	50¢	100¢	+$1,352	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	50¢	100¢	+$1,352	win
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Up	50¢	100¢	+$1,350	win

Esports 20% $-198 $295,452 vol · 100 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs TEAM ASCEND (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group B	TEAM ASCEND	50¢	50¢	+$0	—
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Charrados FC (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Stage	METANOIA WOLVES	50¢	50¢	+$0	—
Counter-Strike: OlyBet SB vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Group Stage	OlyBet SB	50¢	50¢	+$0	—
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs Eternal Fire (BO1) - BC Game Masters Championship Group C	CYBERSHOKE Esports	50¢	50¢	+$0	—
Counter-Strike: OlyBet SB vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Group Stage	Bebop	50¢	50¢	+$0	—
Counter-Strike: FURIA fe vs Bounty Hunters Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South America Cup #2 Playoffs	FURIA fe	50¢	50¢	+$0	—
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs FUZOS (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #19 Group B	FUZOS	50¢	50¢	+$0	—
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs EC BANGA - Map 1 Winner	EC BANGA	50¢	50¢	+$0	—
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs megoshort (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #2 Playoffs	megoshort	50¢	50¢	+$0	—
Counter-Strike: Overpeek vs megoshort (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #2 Playoffs	megoshort	50¢	50¢	+$0	—

Mentions 33% $-499 $1,302 vol · 8 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will Elon tweet between 800 and 849 times September 1–30?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?	No	100¢	100¢	$-496	loss
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 22–August 29?	Yes	50¢	0¢	+$0	—
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times August 22–August 29?	No	50¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18?	Yes	83¢	100¢	+$17	win
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 9–16?	No	98¢	100¢	$-20	loss

Sports 28% $-28,518 $2,506,002 vol · 241 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	100¢	100¢	$-499	loss
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	1¢	0¢	+$19	win
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	99¢	100¢	$-7,922	loss
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	49¢	50¢	+$1	win
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants	Chicago White Sox	50¢	50¢	+$0	—
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand	New Zealand	31¢	0¢	$-1,282	loss
Rainbow Six Siege: Barbie Boys vs Shaiikademy (BO3) - Asia-Pacific League Challenger Series: Oceania Playoffs	Barbie Boys	50¢	50¢	+$0	—
UFC 326: Gaston Bolaños vs. JeongYeong Lee (Featherweight, Early Prelims)	JeongYeong Lee	50¢	50¢	+$0	—
O/U 1.5 Rounds	Under	50¢	50¢	+$0	—
O/U 2.5 Rounds	Over	50¢	50¢	+$0	—