Win rate
96.3%
807 W / 31 L
Total PnL
$5,659
realized $4,685 · unrealized $974
Portfolio
$974
volume $238,707
Predictions
1,010
13.5/day · avg $236
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 13/11/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 98% +$2,815
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Waymo launch in Miami by June 30 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$-0 | — |
| GTA VI released before June 2026? | No | 91¢ | 99¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will MrBeast say "Contestant" during his next YouTube video? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Karoline Leavitt be between 10 and 15 minutes late to the next press briefing? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will "Cold Plunge" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience of the week? (April 13) | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Corrupt" or "Corruption" during NYC rally? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will "Crazy" be said 15+ times during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience of the week? (April 6) | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Revolution" or "Revolutionary" during NYC rally? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
Politics 97% +$2,217
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump visit Nevada in 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Leavitt say "Ukraine" during the next White House press briefing? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Trump name "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" in April? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump say "Kim Jong Un" in April? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Leavitt say "Epic Fury" during the next White House press briefing? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Leavitt say "ICE" during the next White House press briefing? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will "Trump" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience of the week? (April 13) | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will Trump post "AG" or "Attorney General" this week on Truth Social? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on April 14? | Yes | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | win |
Weather 100% +$261
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19? | No | 72¢ | 78¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Climate" during NYC rally? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Tech 100% +$242
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Bernie or Mamdani say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during NYC rally? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will "Nvidia" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Bernie Sanders say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" at the rally on Saturday? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will "OpenAI" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Jensen Huang say "Meta" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" be said 5+ times during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will "Megapixel" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| ChatGPT Full Outage by February 28? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will ON Semiconductor say "Nvidia" during earnings call? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Geopolitics 94% +$155
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Military" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience of the week? (April 13) | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Mark Rutte say "Nuclear" during meeting with Prime Minister of Czechia? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 58¢ | 9¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Starmer say "Nuclear" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 25, 2026? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will "Russia" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29) | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | win |
| Will "Israel" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29) | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Starmer say "Iran" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will "Iran" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Esports 100% +$96
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Blood in Game 2? | Spirit Academy | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will "Massacre" be said during the Valorant Masters Grand Finals? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will "Pearl" be said during the Valorant Masters Grand Finals? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| LoL: GMBLERS ESPORTS vs P11 Esports (BO5) - LIT Playoffs | GMBLERS ESPORTS | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Series: GAM Esports Tower Handicap (-6.5) vs MVK Esports (+6.5) | MVK Esports | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Sports 100% +$60
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Arizona Coyotes make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid PH vs Aurora Gaming - Game 2 Winner | Aurora Gaming | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Call of Duty: Telluride Bush Gaming vs Las Vegas Falcons (BO5) - Call of Duty Challengers North America Elite Stage 2 Playoffs | Las Vegas Falcons | 38¢ | 50¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference? | Yes | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will JD Vance say "Inflation" 3+ times during Michigan visit? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the announcers say "UFC History" during Holloway vs. Oliveira 2? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Leavitt say "Olympics" or "Women's Sports" during the next press briefing? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
| Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during January press conference? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the announcers say "Turf" during the National College Football Championship Game? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Colts vs. Texans: O/U 39.5 | Over | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Culture 100% +$10
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Oscar" or "Oscars" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 29) | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will MrBeast say "Movie" or "Film" during his next video? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will The Singers win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Daniel Radcliffe say "Grammy" or "Tony" on Hot Ones? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Elections 83% +$3
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Election" during NYC rally? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump say "Voter ID" during Cabinet meeting on March 26? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump say "Rigged Election" this week? (February 15) | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Trump say "Midterm" or "Primary" during EPA announcement? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 48% and 50%? | Yes | 53¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | loss |
Economy 67% $-19
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be 2.6%? | Yes | 64¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | loss |
| Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State | Ole Miss | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Finance 93% $-393
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Newsmax (NMAX) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will "Pam" or "Bondi" be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (February 22) | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 90¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will S&P Global say "ETF" during earnings call? | Yes | 95¢ | 0¢ | $-216 | loss |
| Will Roblox say "Language" during earnings call? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Reddit say "Reddit Answers" during earnings call? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will EA say "Live Service" during earnings call? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Eli Lilly say "Alzheimers" during earnings call? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Crypto 76% $-775
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Bitcoin" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience of the week? (April 13) | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Bitcoin above 73,600 on April 15, 8PM ET? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Bitcoin above 72,600 on April 15, 4PM ET? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Ethereum above 2,350 on April 15, 5PM ET? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Bitcoin above 72,800 on April 15, 3PM ET? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Bitcoin above 74,800 on April 15, 3PM ET? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Ethereum above 2,315 on April 15, 6PM ET? | Yes | 99¢ | 50¢ | $-98 | loss |
| Ethereum above 2,325 on April 15, 4PM ET? | Yes | 99¢ | 50¢ | $-99 | loss |
| Bitcoin above 74,200 on April 15, 6PM ET? | Yes | 99¢ | 50¢ | $-98 | loss |
| Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during NYC rally? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mark Rutte say "Trump" during meeting with Prime Minister of Czechia? | No | 76.0¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $76 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Mark Rutte say "Nuclear" during meeting with Prime Minister of Czechia? | Yes | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $488 | 16/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin above 74,800 on April 15, 8PM ET? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $198 | 16/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin above 74,400 on April 15, 8PM ET? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $198 | 16/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin above 73,600 on April 15, 8PM ET? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $198 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the Arizona Coyotes make the NHL Playoffs? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $49 | 16/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin above 72,200 on April 15, 4PM ET? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,998 | 15/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin above 73,000 on April 15, 4PM ET? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,998 | 15/04/2026 |
| Ethereum above 2,320 on April 15, 5PM ET? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $198 | 15/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin above 73,800 on April 15, 4PM ET? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $198 | 15/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin above 72,600 on April 15, 4PM ET? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,998 | 15/04/2026 |
| Ethereum above 2,305 on April 15, 5PM ET? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $198 | 15/04/2026 |
| Ethereum above 2,350 on April 15, 5PM ET? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $198 | 15/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin above 72,800 on April 15, 3PM ET? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $59 | 15/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin above 75,200 on April 15, 3PM ET? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $59 | 15/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin above 74,400 on April 15, 3PM ET? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $59 | 15/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin above 74,800 on April 15, 3PM ET? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $59 | 15/04/2026 |
| Ethereum above 2,285 on April 15, 6PM ET? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 50¢ | $-98 | $198 | 15/04/2026 |
| Ethereum above 2,340 on April 15, 4PM ET? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 50¢ | $-99 | $198 | 15/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin above 74,200 on April 15, 6PM ET? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 50¢ | $-98 | $198 | 15/04/2026 |
| Ethereum above 2,310 on April 15, 4PM ET? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 50¢ | $-99 | $198 | 15/04/2026 |
| Ethereum above 2,300 on April 15, 6PM ET? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 50¢ | $-98 | $198 | 15/04/2026 |
| Ethereum above 2,330 on April 15, 6PM ET? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 50¢ | $-98 | $198 | 15/04/2026 |
| Ethereum above 2,315 on April 15, 6PM ET? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 50¢ | $-98 | $198 | 15/04/2026 |
| Ethereum above 2,370 on April 15, 4PM ET? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 50¢ | $-99 | $198 | 15/04/2026 |
| Ethereum above 2,325 on April 15, 4PM ET? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 50¢ | $-99 | $198 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | Yes | 94.4¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $432 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Salute" during dinner with Dutch royals? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $425 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" during dinner with Dutch royals? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $54 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Melania" during dinner with Dutch royals? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $45 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week? | No | 43.8¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | $48 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Shit" or "Ass" this week? (April 12) | Yes | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $824 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Socialist" or "Socialism" during NYC rally? | Yes | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $586 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will "Fuck" or "Fucking" be said 10+ times during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience of the week? (April 6) | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $1,185 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Revolution" or "Revolutionary" during NYC rally? | No | 92.3¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $92 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5? | No | 91.7¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $46 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Bernie or Mamdani say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during NYC rally? | Yes | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $197 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Trump post "Epic Fury" on Truth Social this week? | Yes | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $193 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "South Korea" this week? (April 12) | Yes | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $197 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Twitch" or "Facebook" during NYC rally? | Yes | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $198 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Climate" during NYC rally? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $98 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Corrupt" or "Corruption" during NYC rally? | Yes | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $198 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Election" during NYC rally? | Yes | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $118 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during NYC rally? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $98 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will "Shit" be said 10+ times during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience of the week? (April 6) | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $123 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Trump post "JD" or "Vance" on Truth Social this week? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $104 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Paper Tiger" this week? (April 12) | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $99 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will "Crazy" be said 15+ times during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience of the week? (April 6) | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $31 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will "Short" be said 10+ times during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | Yes | 96.4¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $616 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will "Six Seven" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | No | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $50 | 11/04/2026 |