Win rate
84.7%
182 W / 33 L
Total PnL
$1,507
realized $657 · unrealized $850
Portfolio
$850
volume $243,861
Predictions
272
6.5/day · avg $897
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 15/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 67% +$807
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | Yes | 29¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | No | 51¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 92¢ | 96¢ | $-15 | loss |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | Yes | 19¢ | 24¢ | +$53 | win |
| US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 46¢ | 73¢ | +$150 | win |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 9, 2026? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | Yes | 32¢ | 3¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 15¢ | 1¢ | $-36 | loss |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 69¢ | 3¢ | $-77 | loss |
Politics 88% +$365
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pam Bondi be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | Yes | 75¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Trump act to ban mail-in voting or voting machines by June 30? | Yes | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$67 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in April? | Yes | 25¢ | 16¢ | $-96 | loss |
| Will Leavitt say "President Xi" during the next White House press briefing? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Trump say "Gulf of Trump" in April? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Leavitt say "Ceasefire" during the next White House press briefing? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump name "Bush" in April? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during King Charles visit? | Yes | 89¢ | 80¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Melania" this week? (April 19) | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | win |
Other 88% +$268
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Eric Swalwell drop out before California primary? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | Yes | 58¢ | 36¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Kanye blocked from entering the UK by May 31? | Yes | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$161 | win |
| Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 25¢ | 12¢ | $-95 | loss |
| Will JD Vance say "Hungary" or "Hungarian" 8+ times during meetings with Orbán? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Starmer say "Kanye" or "West" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 36¢ | 0¢ | +$41 | win |
| Will Starmer say "Tory" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will one person dissent the March Fed decision? | Yes | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$90 | win |
| Will Powell say "Pandemic" during March press conference? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Finance 75% +$148
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic IPO before 2027? | Yes | 39¢ | 52¢ | $-41 | loss |
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 30? | Yes | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | win |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 54¢ | 70¢ | +$9 | win |
Crypto 100% +$11
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET | Up | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET | Up | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
Economy 100% +$5
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Tech 100% +$4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jensen Huang say "Google" at the NVIDIA GTC keynote? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Elections 100% +$3
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance say "Election" 4+ times during meetings with Orbán? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump say "Swing State" at the NRCC Dinner on March 25? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | No | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | +$75 | $250 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 83.9¢ | 100¢ | +$52 | $2,665 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 86.8¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $250 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 22.0¢ | 0¢ | $-10 | $338 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Keir" or "Starmer" this week? (April 12) | Yes | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $250 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Paper Tiger" this week? (April 12) | Yes | 96.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $80 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "South Korea" this week? (April 12) | Yes | 96.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $80 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Trump attend UFC 327? | Yes | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $250 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on April 8? | Yes | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $86 | 11/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 59.0¢ | 100¢ | +$67 | $447 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 0.9¢ | 0¢ | $-175 | $253 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will JD Vance say "God" 3+ times during meetings with Orbán? | Yes | 75.4¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $80 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will JD Vance say "Oil" 2+ times during meetings with Orbán? | Yes | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $80 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will JD Vance say "Election" 4+ times during meetings with Orbán? | Yes | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $80 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will JD Vance say "Hungary" or "Hungarian" 8+ times during meetings with Orbán? | Yes | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $80 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will JD Vance say "Nuclear" during meetings with Orbán? | Yes | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $80 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will JD Vance say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 6+ times during meetings with Orbán? | Yes | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $80 | 08/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 72.5¢ | 100¢ | +$111 | $15,881 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 54.5¢ | 7¢ | +$26 | $698 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 37.0¢ | 100¢ | $-7 | $250 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Trump dance during White House Easter Egg Roll on April 6? | Yes | 79.7¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $250 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Peace" or "War" 3+ times during Monday news conference? | Yes | 94.5¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $80 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? | Yes | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $80 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "NATO" during Monday news conference? | Yes | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $80 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during Monday news conference? | Yes | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $80 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Power" or "Strength" during Monday news conference? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $80 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Iran" or "Iranian" 15+ times during Monday news conference? | Yes | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $80 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Easter" or "Egg" during Monday news conference? | Yes | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $80 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Mad" this week? (April 5) | Yes | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $80 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Filibuster" this week? (April 5) | Yes | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $80 | 05/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 86.6¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $80 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "God" 3+ times during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 91.8¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $80 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Proxy" or "Hezbollah" during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 95.4¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $80 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Starmer say "Hundred" or "Thousand" 5+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | Yes | 95.8¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $80 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Starmer say "Oil" or "Gas" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | Yes | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $80 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | Yes | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $80 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Objective" or "Goal" 3+ times during Address to the Nation? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $80 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Starmer say "National Security" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $80 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Starmer say "Kanye" or "West" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | Yes | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $80 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in March 2026? | Yes | 68.1¢ | 0¢ | +$155 | $1,391 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Yes | 73.0¢ | 88¢ | +$58 | $250 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 25.0¢ | 0¢ | +$48 | $611 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 36.0¢ | 0¢ | +$41 | $497 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | Yes | 13.0¢ | 0¢ | +$34 | $220 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 70.0¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $220 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | Yes | 88.3¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | $220 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Bitcoin" in March? | Yes | 95.4¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $80 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Yes | 9.0¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $299 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Easter" in March? | Yes | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $80 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" in March? | Yes | 95.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |