SusanWarrenHR

Politics 72% +$36,441 $500,822 vol · 2667 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	Yes	18¢	0¢	$-1,190	loss
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?	Yes	66¢	63¢	+$131	win
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	37¢	42¢	+$75	win
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?	No	22¢	50¢	+$38	win
US strikes Iran or Trump announces Fed nominee first?	Trump Announce Fed	76¢	100¢	+$35	win
Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	92¢	100¢	+$30	win
Will Kristi Noem be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	No	71¢	0¢	$-292	loss
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?	No	13¢	0¢	+$7	win
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	No	90¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	16¢	0¢	$-1,371	loss

Other 72% +$18,129 $448,895 vol · 1377 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	77¢	82¢	+$25	win
Insurrection Act invoked by January 31?	No	91¢	100¢	+$20	win
Will the US strike Somalia next?	Yes	80¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will the US strike Somalia next?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$1	win
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	37¢	64¢	+$390	win
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	No	82¢	90¢	+$18	win
Will Bernie endorse Omar Fateh in Minneapolis Mayor for Nov 3 2026 ET?	No	43¢	100¢	+$53	win
Will Kyle Whittingham be the next permanent head coach of the University of Michigan Football team?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Rhoda Magbitang win Top Chef Season 23?	No	31¢	16¢	$-62	loss
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?	No	97¢	100¢	+$5	win

Geopolitics 73% +$7,947 $250,914 vol · 401 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	31¢	70¢	+$33	win
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	66¢	100¢	+$600	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	No	36¢	0¢	+$264	win
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	47¢	82¢	+$148	win
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	11¢	0¢	+$2	win
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	11¢	9¢	+$100	win
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	13¢	0¢	$-661	loss
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$12	win
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	90¢	94¢	+$106	win

Elections 65% +$3,939 $81,811 vol · 252 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?	No	96¢	100¢	+$22	win
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$14	win
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will LDP win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win 250 or more seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win by at least 250 seats?	No	8¢	0¢	$-26	loss
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win 310 or more seats in the 2026 Japanese snap general election?	No	34¢	0¢	$-345	loss
Will Trump say "Midterm Election" during Iowa speech?	No	76¢	100¢	+$24	win
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?	No	14¢	0¢	$-262	loss
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?	Yes	37¢	0¢	$-58	loss

Economy 81% +$2,561 $35,563 vol · 52 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	79¢	99¢	+$97	win
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$129	win
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	96¢	100¢	+$213	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	89¢	100¢	+$454	win
Will Bryan Johnson say "Polymarket" while tripping balls?	No	25¢	0¢	$-25	loss
Will Bryan Johnson say "Blood Boy" while tripping balls?	Yes	35¢	0¢	$-63	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?	Yes	93¢	100¢	+$318	win
Next BLS jobs report by Oct 3, 2025, 8:30 AM ET?	No	94¢	100¢	+$16	win
Will the September 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%?	No	33¢	0¢	+$13	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	88¢	100¢	+$414	win

Tech 79% +$2,345 $37,001 vol · 128 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?	No	93¢	79¢	+$37	win
Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?	No	85¢	48¢	$-153	loss
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	77¢	100¢	+$274	win
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$17	win
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?	No	54¢	0¢	$-1	loss
GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$1	win
ChatGPT Outage by March 15?	No	57¢	100¢	$-203	loss
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?	No	47¢	100¢	+$294	win
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	44¢	100¢	+$167	win
Will Apple's iPhone 17 Pro cost more than $1000 when it launches?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$2	win

Weather 60% +$1,359 $9,966 vol · 52 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?	Yes	78¢	100¢	+$31	win
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in February 2026?	No	99¢	100¢	+$2	win
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30?	No	24¢	0¢	+$10	win
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by September 30?	No	96¢	100¢	$-0	loss
Earthquake 7.0 or above before August?	No	23¢	0¢	+$53	win
Will a hurricane make landfall in the US before August?	Yes	23¢	0¢	$-23	loss
Earthquake 7.0 or above in May?	Yes	61¢	100¢	+$20	win
Another Earthquake 7.0 or above in May?	No	38¢	100¢	+$6	win
Named storm forms before hurricane season?	No	92¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in February 2025?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$1	win

Finance 84% +$1,215 $7,877 vol · 79 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?	Yes	52¢	95¢	+$87	win
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?	Yes	40¢	0¢	$-6	loss
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day?	No	94¢	100¢	+$25	win
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	57¢	0¢	$-114	loss
Will Ryanair say "Union" during earnings call?	Yes	47¢	0¢	$-181	loss
Will Ryanair say "Elon" or "Musk" during earnings call?	No	26¢	0¢	$-139	loss
Will Chewy say "International / Internationally" during earnings call?	No	63¢	100¢	+$30	win
Will Chewy say "Pharmacy" during earnings call?	Yes	81¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will Ulta say "Market Share" during earnings call?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Dell say "Zoho" during earnings call?	No	65¢	100¢	+$24	win

Sports 67% +$692 $48,726 vol · 194 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	26¢	22¢	$-6	loss
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	30¢	44¢	+$27	win
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes	27¢	7¢	$-467	loss
Will F1 win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	82¢	100¢	+$27	win
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100M and 125M views in its first 7 days?	Yes	37¢	0¢	$-565	loss
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 125M and 150M views in its first 7 days?	No	96¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get less than 30 million views on day 1?	No	85¢	100¢	+$60	win
Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get less than 30 million views on day 1?	Yes	30¢	0¢	$-30	loss
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?	Yes	30¢	0¢	$-433	loss
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?	No	57¢	0¢	$-333	loss

Mentions 54% $-274 $1,346 vol · 13 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 2?	No	84¢	0¢	$-252	loss
Will "Kaczynski" be in the manifesto?	No	81¢	100¢	+$15	win
Will Barron tweet in September?	No	86¢	100¢	+$17	win
Will Elon tweet 150-199 times?	Yes	41¢	0¢	$-29	loss
Kamala mentions McDonald’s again before debate?	No	78¢	0¢	$-39	loss
Will Elon tweet between 140-149 times?	No	77¢	100¢	$-19	loss
Will Elon tweet between 120-129 times?	Yes	46¢	0¢	$-33	loss
Will Elon tweet between 80-99 times?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Elon tweet 180 or more times?	Yes	34¢	100¢	+$66	win
Will Elon tweet less than 60 times?	No	96¢	0¢	$-32	loss

Esports 50% $-375 $2,178 vol · 18 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Kai and Speed take less than 25 attempts to beat Fortnite?	No	96¢	100¢	+$1	win
Kai and Speed win Fortnite before Monday?	Yes	49¢	0¢	$-73	loss
Kai and Speed win Fortnite before Sunday?	No	97¢	100¢	$-7	loss
Kai and Speed win Fortnite before midnight?	No	91¢	100¢	+$23	win
Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 100+ tries?	No	34¢	0¢	$-26	loss
Will Kai and Speed win Fortnite in 100+ tries?	Yes	87¢	100¢	$-18	loss
Will G2 Esports win IEM Rio 2024?	Yes	13¢	0¢	$-236	loss
Will Team Vitality win ESL Counter-Strike Champion 2024?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will G2 Esports win ESL Counter-Strike Champion 2024?	Yes	25¢	0¢	$-38	loss
ESL Counter-Strike Semifinals: G2 vs Natus Vincere	NaVi	37¢	100¢	+$38	win

Culture 69% $-430 $9,569 vol · 59 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 160m?	No	100¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?	No	91¢	100¢	+$13	win
Will "One Battle After Another" win 3 or fewer awards at the Oscars?	No	87¢	100¢	+$37	win
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	68¢	100¢	+$21	win
Will Kathryn Hahn win Best Actress in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?	No	98¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will The Studio win Best Ensemble in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?	Yes	96¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will Jean Smart win Best Actress in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?	Yes	28¢	0¢	$-9	loss
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?	Yes	56¢	0¢	$-154	loss
Will "One Battle After Another" win Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the 32nd Actor Awards?	Yes	69¢	0¢	$-359	loss

Crypto 73% $-2,936 $37,730 vol · 205 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Silver hit 100 or Bitcoin hit 100k first?	Silver	66¢	100¢	+$15	win
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	93¢	98¢	+$85	win
Will Seth Rogen win Best Actor in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?	Yes	92¢	100¢	+$46	win
Will Netherlands participate in Eurovision 2026?	No	57¢	100¢	+$269	win
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025?	No	67¢	0¢	+$22	win
Will Karoline Leavitt say crypto or Bitcoin in her next press briefing?	No	86¢	100¢	+$10	win
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?	No	100¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Karoline Leavitt say Bitcoin/Crypto/Cryptocurrency	No	90¢	0¢	$-27	loss
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first?	100k	55¢	0¢	$-28	loss
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first?	$100k	41¢	0¢	$-86	loss