DEGENKHAN

Politics 69% +$33,280 $2,342,491 vol · 311 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	4¢	1¢	$-124	loss
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	3¢	1¢	$-41	loss
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	94¢	93¢	$-261	loss
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	96¢	96¢	$-51	loss
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31?	No	84¢	78¢	$-23	loss
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?	No	94¢	95¢	+$6	win
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	13¢	16¢	+$195	win
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	No	82¢	92¢	+$82	win
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	10¢	10¢	+$80	win
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	92¢	92¢	+$40	win

Other 72% +$17,405 $2,309,790 vol · 682 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	No	73¢	67¢	$-71	loss
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?	No	92¢	88¢	$-168	loss
Major CEX insolvent in 2026?	No	89¢	90¢	+$33	win
Will Hyperliquid reach $54 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	37¢	65¢	$-16	loss
Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026?	No	90¢	92¢	$-223	loss
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026?	No	78¢	88¢	+$317	win
Tom Lee charged by December 31?	No	91¢	92¢	+$14	win
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	61¢	30¢	+$66	win
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?	No	96¢	95¢	$-0	loss
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?	No	95¢	97¢	+$450	win

Crypto 86% +$14,051 $1,455,150 vol · 260 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	91¢	94¢	+$1	win
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	96¢	98¢	$-1	loss
Will Solana dip to $100 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	74¢	100¢	+$21	win
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?	No	68¢	62¢	$-259	loss
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?	No	79¢	70¢	+$23	win
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	73¢	59¢	$-77	loss
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?	Yes	62¢	56¢	$-7	loss
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	No	89¢	50¢	$-22	loss
Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30?	No	95¢	95¢	+$4	win
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	No	71¢	78¢	+$12	win

Elections 47% +$12,618 $645,596 vol · 167 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	5¢	6¢	$-100	loss
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	98¢	98¢	+$4	win
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	46¢	40¢	$-3	loss
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	41¢	38¢	$-185	loss
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	88¢	88¢	+$11	win
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	85¢	84¢	+$31	win
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	86¢	84¢	$-28	loss
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	35¢	36¢	+$115	win
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2025?	No	98¢	100¢	+$137	win
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$-28	loss

Geopolitics 76% +$6,987 $1,003,298 vol · 171 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	Yes	21¢	17¢	$-1,164	loss
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	Yes	15¢	14¢	+$2	win
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	91¢	91¢	+$323	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes	53¢	100¢	+$556	win
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	40¢	20¢	+$159	win
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	45¢	30¢	+$125	win
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	9¢	9¢	+$15	win
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	No	53¢	70¢	+$12	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	No	53¢	0¢	+$4	win
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	11¢	6¢	+$4	win

Weather 63% +$1,221 $115,998 vol · 60 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Yes	23¢	26¢	+$4	win
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	No	65¢	74¢	$-3	loss
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	Yes	4¢	4¢	+$42	win
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	87¢	90¢	+$262	win
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	94¢	96¢	+$293	win
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	Yes	15¢	3¢	$-5	loss
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	No	84¢	82¢	$-77	loss
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 31, 2026?	Yes	86¢	100¢	+$21	win
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?	Yes	30¢	0¢	$-1,264	loss
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?	Yes	15¢	0¢	$-2	loss

Sports 58% +$1,151 $325,809 vol · 320 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$-2	loss
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?	No	93¢	92¢	+$0	—
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-143	loss
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?	Yes	14¢	0¢	$-41	loss
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	No	90¢	99¢	+$1	win
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$-16	loss
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	Yes	20¢	14¢	$-13	loss
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-88	loss
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	No	92¢	98¢	$-30	loss
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?	Yes	39¢	31¢	+$23	win

Finance 89% +$974 $79,561 vol · 19 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	No	84¢	84¢	+$35	win
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?	Yes	91¢	90¢	+$46	win
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	16¢	14¢	+$9	win
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	82¢	86¢	+$76	win
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,350 (HIGH) in February 2026?	No	100¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025?	No	98¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% in 2025?	No	98¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% in 2025?	Yes	54¢	0¢	$-24	loss
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-38	loss
X and Truth Social merger announced before August?	No	98¢	100¢	+$208	win

Tech 85% +$865 $118,179 vol · 72 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	No	88¢	76¢	$-45	loss
Will NVIDIA reach $260 in March?	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Tesla reach $570 in March?	No	99¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Google reach $340 in March?	No	100¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Amazon dip to $152 in March?	No	98¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $120 end of March?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Google dip to $225 in February?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Tesla dip to $383 in February?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will NVIDIA reach $236 in February?	No	99¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will Amazon reach $248 in February?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win

Economy 57% +$35 $64,394 vol · 24 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US recession in 2025?	No	96¢	100¢	+$177	win
US recession in 2025?	Yes	31¢	0¢	$-22	loss
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$-3	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	59¢	100¢	$-165	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?	No	70¢	0¢	$-6	loss
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-10	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?	No	88¢	100¢	$-10	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-4	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?	No	5¢	0¢	$-24	loss
U.S. Recession in 2024?	No	98¢	100¢	+$1	win

Mentions 100% +$6 $73 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Longest Bill Ackman tweet of all time by Wednesday?	No	91¢	100¢	+$6	win

Culture 50% $-119 $584 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Fact check: Was Tyler Robinson a lone actor?	Yes	94¢	100¢	$-119	loss
Will Kendrick Lamar release another album in 2024?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	win