Win rate
79.0%
2021 W / 537 L
Total PnL
$35,969
realized $-32,231 · unrealized $68,200
Portfolio
$68,200
volume $6,771,881
Predictions
2,428
9.6/day · avg $2,789
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 28/10/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Crypto 78% +$38,274
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 80¢ | 92¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 37¢ | 57¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 41¢ | 50¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April? | No | 65¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? | No | 95¢ | 98¢ | +$32 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 13-19? | No | 93¢ | 0¢ | $-465 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 17? | No | 96¢ | 0¢ | $-480 | loss |
Other 85% +$965
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? | No | 83¢ | 73¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 81¢ | 99¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | No | 65¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | $-52 | loss |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 20? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Powell say "Comment" during March press conference? | Yes | 86¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
Tech 92% +$843
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | Yes | 94¢ | 99¢ | +$3 | win |
| NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 15? | Up | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 14? | Up | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on March 19? | Down | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on March 13? | Down | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on March 9? | Up | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on March 9? | Down | 98¢ | 0¢ | $-49 | loss |
| NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on March 6? | Down | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on March 6? | Down | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on March 3? | Down | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Economy 94% +$280
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$71 | win |
| Will Powell say "Employment" or "Unemployment" 20+ times during December press conference? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | win |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$48 | win |
| Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 20+ times during September press conference? | Yes | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | win |
| Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025? | Yes | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$60 | win |
Sports 76% +$249
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | No | 93¢ | 69¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? | Yes | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? | Yes | 58¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Mercedes double podium at the 2026 Chinese Grand Prix? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? | Yes | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Culture 95% +$196
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will "His & Hers" be the top global Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026) | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025) | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 137m and 150m? | Yes | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m? | Yes | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will "Superman" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $116-124m? | Yes | 62¢ | 0¢ | $-42 | loss |
| Will "Jurassic World" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $139-150m? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
Esports 100% +$55
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FaZe (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage | Team Falcons | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: Global Qualifier Playoffs | BetBoom Team | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Ace South American Masters Playoffs | 9z | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Yakutou Brothers (BO3) - ESL Challenger China Playoffs | Yakutou Brothers | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| LoL: GAM Esports vs Ground Zero Gaming (BO3) - LCP Regular Season | GAM Esports | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #13 Playoffs | 1WIN | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Valorant: GIANTX vs Pcific Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoffs | GIANTX | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend | Weibo Gaming | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs | Power Rangers | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| LoL: Dragons Esports vs GnG Amazigh (BO3) - Arabian League Group Stage | Dragons Esports | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Finance 77% $-32
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? | Yes | 85¢ | 42¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? | No | 83¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 24? | Down | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Target (TGT) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 27? | Down | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 25? | Up | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 23? | Down | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 20? | Up | 82¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will Walmart (WMT) beat quarterly earnings? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 19? | Down | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Politics 75% $-260
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Powell say "Trump" during January press conference? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Trump say "America" or "American" 15+ times during Iowa speech? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Powell say "Trump" during December press conference? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Powell say "Trump" during October press conference? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City? | Yes | 79¢ | 0¢ | $-108 | loss |
| Will Mikie Sherrill win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jersey? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | win |
| Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on South Korea before June? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$43 | win |
| Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Elections 73% $-677
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election? | Yes | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after the election? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will the Progressive Reform Party win the most seats in the 2025 Suriname election? | Yes | 64¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will Anthony Albanese be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 2025 election? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$61 | win |
| Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | win |
Geopolitics 87% $-2,946
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 82¢ | 0¢ | $-205 | loss |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 92¢ | 91¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 85¢ | 99¢ | +$7 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 98¢ | 0¢ | $-146 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by March 14? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | No | 96¢ | 0¢ | $-1,684 | loss |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 0¢ | $-2,199 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on April 17? | No | 94.4¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $265 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 17? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $359 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on April 17? | No | 85.0¢ | 0¢ | $-212 | $212 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 17? | No | 96.0¢ | 0¢ | $-480 | $480 | 18/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on April 18? | Down | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $147 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 18? | No | 96.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $58 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 18? | Yes | 85.0¢ | 68¢ | $-4 | $21 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on April 16? | No | 96.2¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $388 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 17? | No | 94.8¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $197 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on April 16? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $40 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on April 16? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $46 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on April 16? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $22 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 16? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $248 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 16? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $100 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on April 16? | No | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $74 | 17/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on April 16? | Up | 89.5¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $90 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 16? | Yes | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $40 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 16? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $496 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 16? | Yes | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $296 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 15? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $2,185 | 15/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on April 15? | Down | 89.5¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $90 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 15? | Yes | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $1,280 | 15/04/2026 |
| NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 15? | Up | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $95 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 15? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $248 | 15/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on April 14? | Up | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $1,959 | 14/04/2026 |
| NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 14? | Up | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $495 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14? | Yes | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $46 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 14? | No | 92.1¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $46 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 14? | Yes | 95.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $48 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 6-12? | No | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$264 | $8,238 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 April 6-12? | No | 98.2¢ | 100¢ | +$145 | $7,860 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 6-12? | No | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$98 | $4,065 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 6-12? | No | 96.7¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $678 | 13/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on April 13? | Up | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $765 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 13? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $94 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 13? | Yes | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $21 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 13? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $248 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 6-12? | Yes | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $23 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 12? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $842 | 12/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on April 12? | Down | 94.8¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $142 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 81.0¢ | 99¢ | +$5 | $20 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $23 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 11? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $136 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 11? | Yes | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $46 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 11? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $248 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 11? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $297 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 11? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,498 | 11/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 10? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $491 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 10? | Yes | 96.8¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $299 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 10? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $406 | 10/04/2026 |