Win rate
79.4%
1188 W / 309 L
Total PnL
$27,174
realized $-4,105 · unrealized $31,279
Portfolio
$31,279
volume $2,038,862
Predictions
3,714
48.9/day · avg $549
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 14/07/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 79% +$9,440
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base FDV above $12B one day after launch? | No | 71¢ | 84¢ | +$2 | win |
| Valantis FDV above $20M one day after launch? | No | 18¢ | 30¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? | No | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $4M before 2027? | No | 66¢ | 94¢ | +$15 | win |
| Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$268 | win |
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 39¢ | 12¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? | No | 49¢ | 63¢ | $-117 | loss |
| Kodiak FDV above $50M one day after launch? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$105 | win |
| Over $25M committed to the Trove public sale? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Yes | 71¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
Elections 75% +$5,754
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 83¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 10¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 41¢ | 44¢ | +$52 | win |
| Spain snap election called in 2026? | No | 67¢ | 78¢ | +$128 | win |
| California voter ID referendum passes? | No | 59¢ | 66¢ | +$72 | win |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 14¢ | 18¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 94¢ | 95¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 93¢ | 64¢ | $-19 | loss |
Crypto 75% +$3,338
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Unit launch a token by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 72¢ | 44¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | No | 32¢ | 92¢ | +$450 | win |
| Record crypto liquidation in 2026? | No | 68¢ | 83¢ | +$82 | win |
| Will EdgeX launch a token by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 51¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | win |
| Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? | No | 39¢ | 0¢ | +$7 | win |
| Bitcoin 11% daily candle change in 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? | No | 10¢ | 20¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Trove launch a token by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027? | No | 39¢ | 18¢ | +$3 | win |
| Bitmine sells any Ethereum in 2026? | No | 70¢ | 71¢ | +$2 | win |
Politics 77% +$3,044
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 50¢ | 98¢ | +$1,448 | win |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 50¢ | 2¢ | $-1,448 | loss |
| Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? | No | 76¢ | 78¢ | +$16 | win |
| US strikes Iran or Trump announces Fed nominee first? | Trump Announce Fed | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$185 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$70 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | win |
| Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? | No | 59¢ | 84¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? | No | 8¢ | 6¢ | $-34 | loss |
Sports 82% +$1,450
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Max Holloway fight Conor McGregor next? | No | 52¢ | 50¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be less than 1.0%? | No | 75¢ | 97¢ | +$23 | win |
| Over $800M raised on Coinbase in 2026? | No | 36¢ | 88¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2026? | No | 88¢ | 92¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 12¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Roger Federer play at Wimbledon? | No | 89¢ | 97¢ | +$3 | win |
| World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? | No | 83¢ | 97¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Clavicular be unbanned from Kick by April 15? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.4% in March? | No | 74¢ | 100¢ | $-26 | loss |
Finance 82% +$1,310
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 6¢ | 4¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day? | No | 77¢ | 96¢ | +$0 | — |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T | No | 91¢ | 84¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? | No | 38¢ | 34¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | No | 11¢ | 10¢ | +$2 | win |
| Ripple Labs IPO before 2027? | No | 80¢ | 88¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in May 2026 (ET)? | Yes | 10¢ | 1¢ | $-310 | loss |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | No | 26¢ | 30¢ | +$49 | win |
| SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? | No | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
Economy 80% +$551
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | 61¢ | 74¢ | +$75 | win |
| Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%? | Yes | 22¢ | 24¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be 2.6%? | No | 53¢ | 100¢ | +$138 | win |
| Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be ≥2.7%? | Yes | 41¢ | 100¢ | +$119 | win |
| Will the January 2026 unemployment rate be 4.6%? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026? | No | 89¢ | 87¢ | $-3 | loss |
Culture 100% +$461
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Drake have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? | No | 90¢ | 97¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Bad Bunny have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? | No | 66¢ | 100¢ | +$57 | win |
| Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? | Yes | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$54 | win |
| Will Lady Gaga win 2 Grammys? | Yes | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$305 | win |
| Will Lady Gaga win 3 Grammys? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will Bad Bunny win 3 Grammys? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will SZA release a new song in 2025? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Tech 91% +$293
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? | SpaceX | 64¢ | 94¢ | +$13 | win |
| Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? | No | 83¢ | 95¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by June 30? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? | No | 42¢ | 8¢ | $-64 | loss |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? | No | 65¢ | 95¢ | +$58 | win |
| Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? | No | 84¢ | 94¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 50B in Q1? | Yes | 85¢ | 96¢ | +$6 | win |
| Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 80B in Q1? | No | 51¢ | 84¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will TurboTax: File Your Tax Return be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 17? | No | 86¢ | 34¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 9? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
Mentions 83% $-12
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Khamenei post 40-59 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026? | No | 69¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Khamenei tweet again by March 9, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? | Yes | 71¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 18–25? | Yes | 63¢ | 0¢ | +$11 | win |
Geopolitics 80% $-2,139
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 75¢ | 32¢ | +$407 | win |
| Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first? | Ceasefire | 59¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | win |
| US x Cuba military clash in 2026? | No | 64¢ | 56¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will Iran legalize gay marriage? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | +$10 | win |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 74¢ | +$5 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 49¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? | No | 88¢ | 91¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the US strike Iran next? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will TurboTax: File Your Tax Return be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 17? | No | 86.5¢ | 34¢ | $-2 | $108 | 17/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$304 | $4,841 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$233 | $3,085 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 63.4¢ | 100¢ | +$178 | $337 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Clavicular be unbanned from Kick by March 31? | Yes | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $1,692 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $133 | 15/04/2026 |
| North Korea missile test/launch by April 15? | No | 36.3¢ | 0¢ | +$13 | $36 | 15/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 15? | Yes | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $24 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 16.3¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $244 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Clavicular be unbanned from Kick by April 15? | Yes | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $224 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 38.0¢ | 0¢ | $-66 | $228 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$169 | $1,561 | 15/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 14? | Yes | 68.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $23 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Clavicular get frame mogged by Gorlock the Destroyer on stream during Mog World Order? | No | 88.4¢ | 100¢ | +$108 | $2,226 | 13/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 13? | Yes | 61.0¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $30 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 100 seats? | No | 76.5¢ | 100¢ | +$315 | $1,025 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 75.9¢ | 100¢ | +$270 | $1,224 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 46.6¢ | 23¢ | +$266 | $594 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 65.4¢ | 100¢ | +$187 | $719 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? | Yes | 36.6¢ | 24¢ | +$183 | $136 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party (Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt) (MKKP) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$93 | $4,002 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 110 seats? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | +$93 | $752 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA win 50-54% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | Yes | 21.9¢ | 94¢ | +$72 | $220 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 59.0¢ | 77¢ | +$71 | $655 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 64.0¢ | 100¢ | +$67 | $336 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%? | No | 53.0¢ | 99¢ | +$63 | $189 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? | No | 50.1¢ | 76¢ | +$58 | $298 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%? | Yes | 29.6¢ | 13¢ | +$53 | $33 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 0-3%? | No | 74.2¢ | 100¢ | +$49 | $356 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 22.1¢ | 75¢ | +$44 | $193 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 15.6¢ | 23¢ | +$36 | $62 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | Yes | 64.6¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $204 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 76.9¢ | 99¢ | +$32 | $698 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 75% and 80%? | Yes | 26.8¢ | 5¢ | +$28 | $23 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win 70-84 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election? | Yes | 24.7¢ | 0¢ | +$27 | $230 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? | Yes | 49.4¢ | 76¢ | +$25 | $289 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? | No | 58.2¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $31 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in fourth place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 8.9¢ | 0¢ | +$21 | $30 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 12, 2026? | Yes | 78.2¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $168 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election? | No | 90.6¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $273 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%? | No | 88.3¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $198 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | Yes | 8.0¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | $32 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $201 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election? | Yes | 80.1¢ | 97¢ | +$12 | $112 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win 70–79 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election? | No | 92.6¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $1,501 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 93.3¢ | 23¢ | +$10 | $1,089 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win 115-129 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $929 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? | No | 55.2¢ | 24¢ | +$5 | $28 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 90 seats? | Yes | 32.4¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $107 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 100 seats? | Yes | 25.0¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $28 | 12/04/2026 |