Win rate
58.2%
32 W / 23 L
Total PnL
$3,318
realized $1,578 · unrealized $1,740
Portfolio
$1,740
volume $436,450
Predictions
56
2.1/day · avg $7,794
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 27/02/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 47% +$2,941
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 22¢ | 0¢ | +$88 | win |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 38¢ | 70¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-106 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 78¢ | 94¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | No | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 69¢ | 95¢ | +$0 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 97¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-1,420 | loss |
Politics 79% +$509
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$84 | win |
| Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$58 | win |
| Will Pam Bondi be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | No | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? | Yes | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | No | 73¢ | 76¢ | +$4 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$61 | win |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | Yes | 16¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$101 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $-75 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? | No | 96.5¢ | 97¢ | +$23 | $878 | 18/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 68.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2,040 | $11,815 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 81.6¢ | 100¢ | +$97 | $742 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 95.3¢ | 100¢ | +$61 | $1,356 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 39.9¢ | 0¢ | +$22 | $216 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 45.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $68 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 89.6¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $555 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | Yes | 16.0¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | $94 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 6.6¢ | 84¢ | +$363 | $72 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 94.1¢ | 100¢ | +$101 | $1,629 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 26.2¢ | 0¢ | $-66 | $261 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 22.0¢ | 100¢ | $-128 | $4,304 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$73 | $3,366 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $333 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $28 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | Yes | 6.3¢ | 0¢ | $-17 | $91 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 83.1¢ | 100¢ | $-25 | $4,632 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 0.9¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $43 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | Yes | 7.6¢ | 0¢ | $-66 | $66 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Yes | 3.0¢ | 0¢ | $-75 | $94 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | No | 31.8¢ | 0¢ | $-544 | $953 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Yes | 31.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1,094 | $514 | 28/02/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Yes | 34.8¢ | 100¢ | +$4,444 | $2,960 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | Yes | 1.2¢ | 0¢ | $-53 | $53 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Yes | 6.1¢ | 0¢ | $-599 | $2,513 | 01/01/1970 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | No | 66.9¢ | 80¢ | +$90 | $591 | 21/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | No | 14.9¢ | 34¢ | +$4 | $46 | 21/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | No | 73.0¢ | 76¢ | +$4 | $117 | 21/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | No | 48.7¢ | 60¢ | +$123 | $551 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 66.0¢ | 44¢ | $-191 | $660 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 53.5¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $988 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $64 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 96.9¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | $498 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $141 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | Yes | 6.4¢ | 1¢ | $-1,114 | $3,388 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 12.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1,420 | $3,990 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 15? | Yes | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $128 | 15/05/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? | No | 25.0¢ | 26¢ | +$5 | $81 | 31/05/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | No | 16.3¢ | 18¢ | +$5 | $288 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 68.8¢ | 95¢ | +$0 | $80 | 30/06/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | Yes | 65.8¢ | 100¢ | +$268 | $1,466 | 30/06/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? | Yes | 54.1¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $58 | 30/06/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | Yes | 75.1¢ | 82¢ | +$2 | $355 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 78.0¢ | 94¢ | $-2 | $146 | 30/06/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | No | 22.8¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $129 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 21.5¢ | 0¢ | +$88 | $166 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | No | 95.8¢ | 100¢ | +$84 | $1,916 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 89.7¢ | 100¢ | +$58 | $566 | 31/12/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 37.9¢ | 70¢ | +$28 | $159 | 31/12/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 88.5¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $1,323 | 31/12/2026 |