Win rate
62.1%
41 W / 25 L
Total PnL
$-2,061
realized $-2,937 · unrealized $876
Portfolio
$876
volume $75,188
Predictions
1,071
4.3/day · avg $70
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 27/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 59% +$54
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | Yes | 62¢ | 30¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 67¢ | 82¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 69¢ | 74¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 30¢ | 18¢ | $-17 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | 19¢ | 6¢ | $-195 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 93¢ | 94¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | No | 94¢ | 96¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | Yes | 88¢ | 94¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | Yes | 6¢ | 3¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | No | 95¢ | 97¢ | +$4 | win |
Politics 50% $-5
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 70¢ | 40¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
Crypto 50% $-9
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:55AM-3:00AM ET | Up | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET | Up | 62¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
Economy 0% $-51
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 6¢ | 1¢ | $-51 | loss |
Other 86% $-118
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu out by June 30? | No | 87¢ | 94¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$167 | win |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 64¢ | 99¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A | BNK FEARX | 17¢ | 0¢ | +$22 | win |
Esports 0% $-137
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner | Team Liquid | 76¢ | 100¢ | $-37 | loss |
| Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner | Heroic | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | loss |
Elections 50% $-168
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 86¢ | 90¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? | Yes | 40¢ | 0¢ | $-122 | loss |
| Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | Yes | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | loss |
| Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | win |
Weather 79% $-993
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 9? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 9? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on March 8? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on March 7? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on March 7? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on March 7? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on March 7? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-756 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on March 6? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 72°F or higher on March 6? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 18.4¢ | 100¢ | +$100 | $263 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 84.5¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $40 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 14.8¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $26 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 81.2¢ | 0¢ | $-90 | $90 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 66.6¢ | 100¢ | +$167 | $444 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 63.7¢ | 99¢ | +$8 | $252 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | No | 33.0¢ | 1¢ | $-333 | $347 | 12/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 29.2¢ | 85¢ | +$64 | $34 | 07/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 61.8¢ | 100¢ | +$254 | $550 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 61.0¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $25 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 78.9¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | No | 68.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $25 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? | No | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $35 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 19.0¢ | 0¢ | $-92 | $131 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election? | Yes | 40.3¢ | 0¢ | $-122 | $122 | 22/03/2026 |
| LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A | BNK FEARX | 17.0¢ | 0¢ | +$22 | $35 | 16/03/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 9? | Yes | 80.1¢ | 100¢ | +$21 | $85 | 09/03/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 9? | No | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $50 | 09/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:55AM-3:00AM ET | Up | 61.0¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $25 | 08/03/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on March 8? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $38 | 08/03/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET | Up | 61.6¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 08/03/2026 |
| Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner | Team Liquid | 76.1¢ | 100¢ | $-37 | $175 | 08/03/2026 |
| Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections? | Yes | 14.0¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 08/03/2026 |
| Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner | Heroic | 49.8¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 08/03/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on March 7? | No | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $710 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on March 7? | No | 96.8¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $372 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on March 7? | No | 94.3¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $182 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on March 7? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $91 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on March 7? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $77 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on March 7? | No | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $48 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on March 7? | Yes | 4.9¢ | 0¢ | $-120 | $120 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on March 7? | Yes | 10.9¢ | 0¢ | $-199 | $199 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on March 7? | Yes | 4.9¢ | 0¢ | $-756 | $756 | 07/03/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on March 6? | No | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $190 | 06/03/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 72°F or higher on March 6? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $56 | 06/03/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | Yes | 7.7¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $38 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? | Yes | 23.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $41 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Yes | 79.4¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $65 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Yes | 10.1¢ | 0¢ | $-15 | $51 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 16.4¢ | 26¢ | +$9 | $39 | 22/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | No | 79.1¢ | 74¢ | $-0 | $70 | 22/04/2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 6.0¢ | 1¢ | $-51 | $60 | 29/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 72.2¢ | 64¢ | $-6 | $50 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | Yes | 63.7¢ | 90¢ | +$37 | $96 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | Yes | 12.5¢ | 1¢ | +$35 | $175 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 69.0¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $190 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | No | 89.0¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | $272 | 30/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 29.4¢ | 0¢ | $-160 | $160 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | No | 27.6¢ | 5¢ | $-33 | $40 | 15/05/2026 |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 30.1¢ | 60¢ | +$23 | $48 | 26/05/2026 |