Win rate
52.1%
226 W / 208 L
Total PnL
$45,011
realized $-3,863 · unrealized $48,874
Portfolio
$48,874
volume $14,505,775
Predictions
241
10.7/day · avg $60,190
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 08/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 53% +$44,078
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027? | Yes | 53¢ | 52¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 43¢ | 42¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 69¢ | 78¢ | $-1,047 | loss |
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | +$374 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 66¢ | 100¢ | $-47 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? | No | 2¢ | 0¢ | +$774 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 76¢ | 100¢ | $-174 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 31¢ | 22¢ | +$1,062 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 18¢ | 0¢ | +$620 | win |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | No | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-3,206 | loss |
Crypto 50% $-32
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET | Down | 29¢ | 0¢ | $-48 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET | Up | 60¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
Politics 46% $-432
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 12¢ | +$278 | win |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 83¢ | 84¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? | No | 87¢ | 88¢ | $-273 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? | Yes | 80¢ | 89¢ | $-3,152 | loss |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? | Yes | 24¢ | 34¢ | $-116 | loss |
| Will Trump be impeached by June 30? | No | 94¢ | 98¢ | $-327 | loss |
| Will Trump be impeached by June 30? | Yes | 4¢ | 2¢ | +$348 | win |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? | No | 60¢ | 66¢ | +$0 | win |
| Trump out as President by June 30? | No | 91¢ | 94¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | No | 9¢ | 0¢ | +$101 | win |
Other 53% $-555
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | Yes | 36¢ | 44¢ | +$61 | win |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 58¢ | 62¢ | $-213 | loss |
| US strike on Cuba by March 31? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-430 | loss |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Yes | 39¢ | 40¢ | +$331 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | No | 75¢ | 76¢ | $-1,124 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Yes | 69¢ | 24¢ | $-674 | loss |
| Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? | No | 70¢ | 86¢ | $-498 | loss |
| Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? | Yes | 26¢ | 14¢ | +$483 | win |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? | No | 84¢ | 92¢ | $-1,634 | loss |
| SAVE Act becomes law by April 30, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 9.7¢ | 0¢ | +$6,860 | $5,786 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 91.3¢ | 100¢ | +$5,410 | $105,951 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 14.5¢ | 0¢ | +$832 | $959 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 96.2¢ | 100¢ | +$579 | $49,862 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 11.2¢ | 0¢ | +$431 | $483 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $3,924 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | $-23 | $99 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | No | 1.3¢ | 0¢ | $-305 | $124 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 84.7¢ | 100¢ | $-702 | $7,069 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 39.3¢ | 9¢ | $-1,370 | $61,264 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 41.9¢ | 0¢ | $-3,593 | $35,735 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | $-5,867 | $85,154 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | $-55 | $5,448 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 70.5¢ | 90¢ | $-148 | $92,786 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | Yes | 2.5¢ | 0¢ | +$1,163 | $83 | 12/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | No | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | $-792 | $23,858 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? | Yes | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $486 | 10/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $297 | 10/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Yes | 6.6¢ | 0¢ | +$2,488 | $1,026 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 93.5¢ | 100¢ | $-1,194 | $43,046 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 21.3¢ | 10¢ | $-1,224 | $10,702 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 38.8¢ | 0¢ | $-1,512 | $25,809 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | $-2,443 | $22,449 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 77.5¢ | 90¢ | +$187 | $32,900 | 07/04/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 12.4¢ | 0¢ | +$11,170 | $17,336 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Yes | 3.1¢ | 0¢ | +$10,395 | $2,882 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? | Yes | 46.4¢ | 100¢ | +$9,282 | $11,353 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | Yes | 3.0¢ | 0¢ | +$5,911 | $1,175 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | Yes | 3.4¢ | 0¢ | +$4,115 | $1,423 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 73.9¢ | 100¢ | +$3,539 | $95,856 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10? | Yes | 59.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2,484 | $5,089 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9? | Yes | 50.8¢ | 100¢ | +$1,640 | $5,075 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? | Yes | 6.9¢ | 0¢ | +$1,336 | $677 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by March 31? | Yes | 2.0¢ | 0¢ | +$882 | $159 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 50.0¢ | 0¢ | +$438 | $938 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31? | No | 11.0¢ | 0¢ | +$380 | $436 | 31/03/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$366 | $9,880 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | Yes | 2.4¢ | 0¢ | +$328 | $54 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | Yes | 3.5¢ | 0¢ | +$325 | $71 | 31/03/2026 |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31? | Yes | 3.9¢ | 0¢ | +$255 | $38 | 31/03/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? | Yes | 19.0¢ | 0¢ | +$243 | $940 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? | Yes | 50.0¢ | 0¢ | +$218 | $2,678 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | +$152 | $314 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? | No | 16.0¢ | 0¢ | +$121 | $1,710 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 11? | Yes | 69.0¢ | 100¢ | +$32 | $4,230 | 31/03/2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei | No | 39.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $117 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $544 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10? | No | 66.0¢ | 0¢ | $-13 | $62 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 13? | Yes | 84.3¢ | 100¢ | $-29 | $2,566 | 31/03/2026 |