Win rate
87.1%
27 W / 4 L
Total PnL
$980
realized $-22,840 · unrealized $23,820
Portfolio
$23,820
volume $111,184
Predictions
35
5.5/day · avg $3,177
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 11/04/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 86% +$1,168
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 2¢ | 3¢ | +$9 | win |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 20¢ | 42¢ | +$225 | win |
| Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | win |
| Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | +$1 | win |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 58¢ | 6¢ | $-303 | loss |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | win |
Politics 100% +$687
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | No | 75¢ | 60¢ | +$80 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | No | 93¢ | 94¢ | +$15 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by May 15? | Yes | 76¢ | 88¢ | +$8 | win |
Other 60% +$87
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Epstein client list released by June 30? | No | 75¢ | 88¢ | +$125 | win |
| Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? | Yes | 66¢ | 80¢ | +$140 | win |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? | No | 55¢ | 17¢ | $-149 | loss |
Weather 100% +$37
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 13? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 13? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
Elections 100% +$4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tisza win at least 120 seats? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Recent Trades (31)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 95.7¢ | 100¢ | +$532 | $11,851 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 13? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $5,916 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 13? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $1,243 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5? | Yes | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $970 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win at least 130 seats? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $354 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win at least 100 seats? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $199 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win at least 90 seats? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $332 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win at least 120 seats? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $58 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $4,062 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | Yes | 82.8¢ | 86¢ | +$52 | $1,144 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump visit China by May 15? | Yes | 76.0¢ | 88¢ | +$8 | $52 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 57.9¢ | 6¢ | $-303 | $568 | 18/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 87.2¢ | 92¢ | +$382 | $7,846 | 21/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? | No | 93.0¢ | 94¢ | +$15 | $930 | 21/04/2026 |
| Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 16.0¢ | 16¢ | +$1 | $44 | 21/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | No | 74.8¢ | 60¢ | +$80 | $968 | 21/04/2026 |
| Will the US x Iran ceasefire be extended by April 14, 2026? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $4,743 | 21/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 20.0¢ | 42¢ | +$225 | $200 | 22/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 88.4¢ | 94¢ | +$172 | $2,736 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 31.0¢ | 56¢ | +$256 | $317 | 30/04/2026 |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? | Yes | 66.0¢ | 80¢ | +$140 | $640 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 74.7¢ | 84¢ | $-31 | $1,495 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? | No | 88.0¢ | 78¢ | $-40 | $352 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? | No | 55.0¢ | 17¢ | $-149 | $220 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 14, 2026? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $8,839 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026? | Yes | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $11,193 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026? | No | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $1,600 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $329 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 89.6¢ | 94¢ | +$346 | $6,332 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 2.4¢ | 3¢ | +$9 | $87 | 30/06/2026 |
| Epstein client list released by June 30? | No | 75.0¢ | 88¢ | +$125 | $750 | 30/06/2026 |