Win rate
87.9%
364 W / 50 L
Total PnL
$4,009
realized $-4,229 · unrealized $8,238
Portfolio
$8,238
volume $388,556
Predictions
495
3.7/day · avg $785
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 21/11/2023 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 19/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 19/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 92% +$5,042
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$234 | win |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 45¢ | 24¢ | +$81 | win |
| Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$73 | win |
| US strike on Cuba by March 31? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will the DHS shutdown end between April 16-19 2026? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$1 | win |
| Starmer out by February 28, 2026? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | win |
| U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by December 31, 2025? | No | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | win |
| Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Kash Patel out by April 30? | No | 74¢ | 71¢ | +$38 | win |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Crypto 100% +$797
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? | No | 82¢ | 98¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? | No | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$109 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$116 | win |
| Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by December 31, 2025? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 5? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 4? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 3? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$61 | win |
Finance 90% +$187
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) hit (LOW) $620 in April? | No | 67¢ | 98¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $665 Week of April 13 2026? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will the S&P 500 (SPX) open at <6600 on April 8? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 6? | Down | 74¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | loss |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 2? | Down | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | win |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in March 2026? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (HIGH) in February 2026? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General in July? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
Sports 100% +$120
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will an Individual Neutral Athlete record a gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Dua Lipa perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will Elon Musk attend Super Bowl LX? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Tech 100% +$107
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google reach $330 in March? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$73 | win |
| Will Google reach $365 in February? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 end of January? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by August 31? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
Culture 100% +$19
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Charlie Kirk" be said at the Oscars? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Politics 87% +$1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | win |
| Will Christian Menefee be the Democratic nominee for TX-18? | Yes | 90¢ | 85¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in April 2026? | No | 76¢ | 74¢ | $-28 | loss |
| Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 39.0% in April? | No | 53¢ | 78¢ | +$25 | win |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April? | No | 87¢ | 91¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.5 on April 24, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 96¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.5 on April 10, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | win |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Trump cut off trade with Spain? | No | 82¢ | 100¢ | +$89 | win |
Elections 78% $-1,080
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Party for Freedom win the fourth most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | No | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | win |
| Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$55 | win |
| Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Democrats 66 win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 62¢ | 0¢ | $-1,473 | loss |
| Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 Assam Legislative Assembly election? | Yes | 97¢ | 97¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 15-18%? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | $-65 | loss |
| Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | Yes | 73¢ | 0¢ | $-126 | loss |
| Will the margin of victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election be between 3% and 6%? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Hannah Spencer – Green Party finish third in the Gorton and Denton by-election? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Sanseitō win the third-most seats in the 2026 Japanese general election? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Geopolitics 83% $-1,461
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$137 | win |
| Iran leadership change by March 13? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$90 | win |
| Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? | No | 80¢ | 92¢ | +$46 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 43¢ | 0¢ | $-95 | loss |
| Military action against Iran ends by April 14, 2026? | No | 84¢ | 0¢ | $-59 | loss |
| Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30? | No | 73¢ | 0¢ | $-184 | loss |
| Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Another EU country restricts U.S. military aircraft by April 30? | No | 73¢ | 86¢ | +$58 | win |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | No | 60¢ | 68¢ | +$24 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? | Yes | 91.6¢ | 100¢ | +$117 | $1,282 | 19/04/2026 |
| Will Justin Bieber feature Billie Eilish during his Coachella performances? | No | 81.3¢ | 57¢ | $-72 | $244 | 19/04/2026 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $665 Week of April 13 2026? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $28 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | No | 82.9¢ | 100¢ | +$239 | $1,161 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 93.5¢ | 100¢ | +$112 | $1,621 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | No | 94.2¢ | 100¢ | +$69 | $1,130 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $602 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 15-18%? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | $-65 | $178 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election? | Yes | 72.9¢ | 0¢ | $-126 | $154 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.5 on April 10, 2026? | No | 88.8¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | $543 | 11/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $470 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will the S&P 500 (SPX) open at <6600 on April 8? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $71 | 08/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 95.8¢ | 0¢ | $-1,002 | $1,073 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $192 | 06/04/2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 6? | Down | 74.0¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | $148 | 06/04/2026 |
| Any of the stolen KitKats recovered by April 5? | No | 93.9¢ | 100¢ | +$73 | $1,127 | 05/04/2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 2? | Down | 81.5¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | $163 | 02/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" during Address to the Nation? | No | 76.2¢ | 100¢ | +$95 | $305 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? | No | 87.9¢ | 100¢ | +$93 | $703 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Google reach $330 in March? | No | 81.7¢ | 100¢ | +$73 | $327 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Address to the Nation? | No | 93.3¢ | 100¢ | +$67 | $933 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Address to the Nation? | No | 83.4¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $83 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $92 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $194 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $315 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | No | 65.2¢ | 100¢ | +$715 | $1,515 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 84.3¢ | 100¢ | +$314 | $1,687 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | No | 82.7¢ | 100¢ | +$308 | $1,901 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by January 31? | No | 85.9¢ | 100¢ | +$307 | $1,943 | 31/03/2026 |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | No | 79.2¢ | 100¢ | +$292 | $1,109 | 31/03/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? | No | 79.4¢ | 100¢ | +$288 | $1,112 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 84.4¢ | 100¢ | +$265 | $1,435 | 31/03/2026 |
| US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? | No | 57.2¢ | 100¢ | +$212 | $286 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 75.8¢ | 100¢ | +$212 | $682 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? | No | 80.5¢ | 100¢ | +$179 | $860 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | No | 84.9¢ | 100¢ | +$116 | $679 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | No | 84.9¢ | 100¢ | +$116 | $679 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | No | 88.1¢ | 100¢ | +$95 | $705 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump cut off trade with Spain? | No | 82.4¢ | 100¢ | +$89 | $447 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump cabinet member out by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$84 | $616 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more? | Yes | 95.5¢ | 100¢ | +$75 | $1,600 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in March 2026? | No | 87.6¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | $263 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? | No | 86.8¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $260 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | 80.6¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $322 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$17 | $279 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in March 2026? | No | 94.8¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $284 | 31/03/2026 |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 31? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $137 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Mark Warner vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026? | No | 94.9¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $216 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $386 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Reza Pahlavi in March? | No | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $193 | 31/03/2026 |