Win rate
54.8%
51 W / 42 L
Total PnL
$-83
realized $-647 · unrealized $563
Portfolio
$563
volume $54,306
Predictions
631
32.9/day · avg $86
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 19/03/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 18/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 18/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 66% +$237
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 67¢ | 66¢ | +$22 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Yes | 29¢ | 30¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 78¢ | 92¢ | +$10 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | $-5 | loss |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | Yes | 24¢ | 22¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | No | 64¢ | 95¢ | +$1 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 70¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 36¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 45¢ | 0¢ | $-16 | loss |
Sports 25% +$121
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucks vs. Suns | Bucks | 14¢ | 100¢ | +$192 | win |
| Bucks vs. Suns | Suns | 45¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Clippers vs. Mavericks | Mavericks | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
| Lakers vs. Magic | Magic | 56¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | loss |
Elections 56% +$41
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 19¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 81¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 68¢ | 82¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? | Yes | 67¢ | 82¢ | +$40 | win |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? | No | 62¢ | 82¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 67¢ | 80¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 25¢ | 18¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 70¢ | 81¢ | $-5 | loss |
Economy 75% +$5
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-47 | loss |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$46 | win |
Esports 57% +$4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner | PARIVISION | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner | Team Falcons | 67¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner | Vitality | 94¢ | 100¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B | 9z | 63¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | win |
| Counter-Strike: NIP vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner | Liquid | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | win |
| Counter-Strike: NIP vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner | NIP | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | loss |
Mentions 50% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | No | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | win |
| Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | Yes | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
Politics 50% $-16
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | 60¢ | 38¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | No | 69¢ | 86¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | Yes | 72¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | loss |
Weather 0% $-24
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Hurricanes vs. Purdue Boilermakers | Miami Hurricanes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on March 18? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | $-15 | loss |
Other 40% $-148
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 49¢ | 76¢ | +$2 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 38¢ | 24¢ | +$7 | win |
| Liaoning Flying Leopards vs. Beijing Ducks | Beijing Ducks | 58¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | win |
| Fujian Sturgeons vs. Shanxi Loongs | Fujian Sturgeons | 65¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-03-22? | No | 49¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | win |
| Spread: Purdue Boilermakers (-7.5) | Miami Hurricanes | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Miami Open, Qualification: Bianca Andreescu vs Suzan Lamens | Suzan Lamens | 37¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-22? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
| Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-03-22? | No | 81¢ | 100¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Como 1907 vs. Pisa SC: O/U 2.5 | Under | 42¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | +$69 | $575 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 29.8¢ | 19¢ | +$5 | $49 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 14.3¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $22 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 54.3¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $57 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 54.4¢ | 81¢ | +$0 | $162 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff? | Yes | 66.6¢ | 82¢ | +$40 | $113 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? | No | 62.0¢ | 82¢ | +$7 | $40 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 67.8¢ | 82¢ | +$4 | $37 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 67.0¢ | 80¢ | +$3 | $68 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 25.4¢ | 18¢ | $-2 | $36 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 31.3¢ | 18¢ | $-4 | $29 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 70.4¢ | 81¢ | $-5 | $20 | 12/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 48.0¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $29 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 14.2¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | $47 | 10/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 45.3¢ | 80¢ | +$22 | $298 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 79.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $195 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 51.0¢ | 20¢ | $-33 | $174 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 30.6¢ | 0¢ | $-38 | $66 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | Yes | 63.0¢ | 100¢ | +$181 | $361 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $136 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026? | No | 79.2¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $82 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 94.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $32 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 98.6¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends by March 25, 2026? | No | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $47 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | No | 95.1¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $46 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026? | Yes | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | $58 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in March? | Yes | 72.0¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 17.5¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? | Yes | 63.8¢ | 0¢ | $-34 | $54 | 31/03/2026 |
| Liaoning Flying Leopards vs. Beijing Ducks | Beijing Ducks | 58.0¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $47 | 28/03/2026 |
| Fujian Sturgeons vs. Shanxi Loongs | Fujian Sturgeons | 65.0¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $23 | 28/03/2026 |
| Bucks vs. Suns | Bucks | 13.8¢ | 100¢ | +$192 | $35 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-03-22? | No | 49.0¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | $45 | 22/03/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner | PARIVISION | 84.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $40 | 22/03/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A | Team Falcons | 83.2¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $25 | 22/03/2026 |
| Miami Hurricanes vs. Purdue Boilermakers | Miami Hurricanes | 21.0¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | $34 | 22/03/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner | Vitality | 94.0¢ | 100¢ | $-11 | $50 | 22/03/2026 |
| Bucks vs. Suns | Suns | 44.9¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | $25 | 22/03/2026 |
| Spread: Purdue Boilermakers (-7.5) | Miami Hurricanes | 50.4¢ | 0¢ | $-12 | $31 | 22/03/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner | Team Falcons | 67.4¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | $45 | 22/03/2026 |
| Miami Open, Qualification: Bianca Andreescu vs Suzan Lamens | Suzan Lamens | 37.0¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | $21 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-22? | Yes | 8.2¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $25 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-03-22? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | $-24 | $45 | 22/03/2026 |
| Como 1907 vs. Pisa SC: O/U 1.5 | Under | 19.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $35 | 22/03/2026 |
| Clippers vs. Mavericks | Mavericks | 17.1¢ | 0¢ | $-30 | $52 | 22/03/2026 |
| Como 1907 vs. Pisa SC: O/U 2.5 | Under | 41.9¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | $52 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will NEC win on 2026-03-22? | Yes | 60.8¢ | 0¢ | $-91 | $135 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21? | No | 54.3¢ | 100¢ | +$67 | $80 | 21/03/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B | 9z | 63.0¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | $81 | 21/03/2026 |
| Counter-Strike: NIP vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner | Liquid | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | +$13 | $94 | 21/03/2026 |