Win rate
23.8%
10 W / 32 L
Total PnL
$73,896
realized $54,265 · unrealized $19,631
Portfolio
$19,631
volume $2,403,746
Predictions
48
1.4/day · avg $50,078
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 25/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 19/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 19/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Other 42% +$93,520
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | No | 60¢ | 64¢ | +$50 | win |
| Epstein client list released by June 30? | Yes | 13¢ | 6¢ | $-270 | loss |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-350 | loss |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 30¢ | 0¢ | $-740 | loss |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | Yes | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-13,712 | loss |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$2,810 | win |
| Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more? | Yes | 35¢ | 0¢ | $-2,000 | loss |
| Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more? | No | 32¢ | 0¢ | $-7,973 | loss |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | No | 31¢ | 100¢ | +$13,723 | win |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | Yes | 17¢ | 0¢ | $-500 | loss |
Elections 0% $-12
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $-12 | loss |
Politics 17% $-3,197
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-412 | loss |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | Yes | 8¢ | 0¢ | $-2,319 | loss |
| Will no government funding bill be passed by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$1,207 | win |
Geopolitics 6% $-18,473
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 66¢ | 0¢ | $-2,750 | loss |
| Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-350 | loss |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 27¢ | 0¢ | $-3,000 | loss |
| Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? | Yes | 14¢ | 8¢ | $-224 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | No | 30¢ | 46¢ | +$232 | win |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-500 | loss |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 2¢ | $-738 | loss |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 71¢ | 72¢ | $-40 | loss |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 45¢ | 26¢ | $-10,213 | loss |
Recent Trades (42)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 26.1¢ | 0¢ | $-525 | $525 | 18/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? | Yes | 5.8¢ | 0¢ | $-350 | $350 | 15/04/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | Yes | 2.1¢ | 0¢ | $-500 | $500 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 15.5¢ | 0¢ | $-648 | $648 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | No | 0.2¢ | 0¢ | $-168 | $231 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 8.8¢ | 2¢ | $-738 | $1,029 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week? | Yes | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $-412 | $412 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 30.1¢ | 0¢ | $-740 | $750 | 12/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? | Yes | 7.8¢ | 0¢ | $-2,319 | $2,319 | 12/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 1.9¢ | 0¢ | $-500 | $500 | 10/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 71.3¢ | 72¢ | $-40 | $1,050 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 44.7¢ | 26¢ | $-10,213 | $24,022 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more? | Yes | 85.1¢ | 100¢ | +$10,121 | $57,927 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more? | Yes | 58.9¢ | 100¢ | +$6,581 | $9,419 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | No | 95.7¢ | 100¢ | +$2,810 | $63,222 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | $-98 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? | Yes | 15.5¢ | 0¢ | $-99 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | Yes | 26.8¢ | 0¢ | $-13,712 | $25,739 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more? | Yes | 34.5¢ | 0¢ | $-2,000 | $2,000 | 14/03/2026 |
| Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more? | No | 32.3¢ | 0¢ | $-7,973 | $7,973 | 14/03/2026 |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | No | 31.4¢ | 100¢ | +$13,723 | $9,707 | 14/02/2026 |
| Government shutdown on Saturday? | Yes | 16.7¢ | 0¢ | $-500 | $500 | 14/02/2026 |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | No | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | +$74,824 | $1,215 | 31/01/2026 |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Yes | 74.9¢ | 100¢ | +$14,056 | $48,266 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will no government funding bill be passed by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 77.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1,207 | $4,104 | 31/01/2026 |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? | No | 1.5¢ | 0¢ | $-2,823 | $3,028 | 31/01/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | No | 29.6¢ | 46¢ | +$232 | $593 | 21/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | No | 27.2¢ | 0¢ | $-3,000 | $2,999 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? | Yes | 13.6¢ | 8¢ | $-224 | $500 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? | Yes | 21.5¢ | 13¢ | $-120 | $303 | 30/04/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends on April 26, 2026? | Yes | 0.1¢ | 0¢ | $-33 | $33 | 30/04/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends on April 29, 2026? | Yes | 1.0¢ | 0¢ | $-50 | $50 | 30/04/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends on April 30, 2026? | Yes | 0.3¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 30/04/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends on April 24, 2026? | Yes | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | $-100 | $100 | 30/04/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends on April 15, 2026? | Yes | 0.4¢ | 0¢ | $-110 | $110 | 30/04/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends on April 11, 2026? | Yes | 1.0¢ | 0¢ | $-330 | $330 | 30/04/2026 |
| Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026? | Yes | 0.7¢ | 0¢ | $-350 | $350 | 30/04/2026 |
| Epstein client list released by June 30? | Yes | 13.4¢ | 6¢ | $-270 | $500 | 30/06/2026 |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | No | 60.0¢ | 64¢ | +$50 | $1,000 | 30/06/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | No | 65.7¢ | 0¢ | $-2,750 | $2,750 | 30/06/2026 |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | No | 38.2¢ | 38¢ | +$39 | $4,489 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 1.0¢ | 1¢ | $-12 | $250 | 07/11/2028 |