Win rate
60.0%
9 W / 6 L
Total PnL
$246
realized $-280 · unrealized $526
Portfolio
$526
volume $14,542
Predictions
300
7.4/day · avg $48
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 05/01/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Other 67% +$315
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? | No | 68¢ | 13¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? | No | 7¢ | 100¢ | +$329 | win |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Economy 100% +$50
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%? | No | 69¢ | 94¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%? | Yes | 11¢ | 21¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? | Yes | 67¢ | 69¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be greater than 3.5%? | No | 54¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | win |
Tech 100% +$31
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | No | 67¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | win |
Politics 100% +$1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 38¢ | 39¢ | +$1 | win |
Finance 0% $-58
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 11? | Up | 91¢ | 0¢ | $-58 | loss |
Geopolitics 33% $-195
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 71¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | loss |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 58¢ | 9¢ | $-18 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | No | 4¢ | 0¢ | $-118 | loss |
Recent Trades (16)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 70.6¢ | 0¢ | $-32 | $32 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 74.1¢ | 0¢ | $-31 | $31 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 57.8¢ | 9¢ | $-18 | $22 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? | No | 7.3¢ | 100¢ | +$329 | $26 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 94.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | No | 3.6¢ | 0¢ | $-118 | $143 | 28/02/2026 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 11? | Up | 90.8¢ | 0¢ | $-58 | $58 | 11/02/2026 |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | No | 66.6¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $73 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? | Yes | 67.1¢ | 69¢ | +$1 | $20 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be greater than 3.5%? | No | 53.8¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $111 | 29/01/2026 |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28? | Yes | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $84 | 31/12/2025 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | No | 91.1¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $21 | 01/01/1970 |
| Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%? | Yes | 10.8¢ | 21¢ | +$20 | $22 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? | No | 68.3¢ | 13¢ | $-20 | $25 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%? | No | 68.8¢ | 94¢ | +$0 | $22 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 37.8¢ | 39¢ | +$1 | $28 | 07/11/2028 |