Win rate
78.2%
122 W / 34 L
Total PnL
$901
realized $-4,140 · unrealized $5,041
Portfolio
$5,041
volume $117,070
Predictions
259
9.4/day · avg $452
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 31/12/1969 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 75% +$956
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | No | 19¢ | 0¢ | $-53 | loss |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 60¢ | 76¢ | +$309 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 59¢ | 84¢ | +$35 | win |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | 86¢ | 90¢ | +$1 | win |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | Yes | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | 82¢ | 94¢ | +$121 | win |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 85¢ | 96¢ | +$4 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $-1 | loss |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 49¢ | 64¢ | +$22 | win |
Politics 81% +$131
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 39¢ | 39¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | Yes | 37¢ | 44¢ | +$8 | win |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | No | 92¢ | 99¢ | +$16 | win |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week? | No | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 56¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | win |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
Elections 100% +$7
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
Finance 100% +$6
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 15? | Yes | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Tech 100% +$5
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $7M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
Weather 100% +$4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Iowa Panthers vs. St. John's Red Storm | St. Johns Red Storm | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
Culture 100% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Crypto 100% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Other 82% $-29
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | +$0 | win |
| Tony Gonzales out as US Rep by May 31? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Eric Swalwell out as US Rep by May 31? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Yes | 65¢ | 72¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | No | 45¢ | 64¢ | +$62 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 43¢ | 36¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? | Yes | 78¢ | 86¢ | +$26 | win |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 36¢ | 0¢ | $-56 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 47.2¢ | 100¢ | +$681 | $1,103 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? | No | 86.8¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $95 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 12.6¢ | 0¢ | $-82 | $103 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 56.5¢ | 0¢ | $-426 | $478 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $1,025 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 53.3¢ | 92¢ | +$192 | $379 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 42.8¢ | 8¢ | $-66 | $128 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 76.4¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $27 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week? | No | 70.5¢ | 100¢ | +$18 | $44 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | $22 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Yes | 36.0¢ | 0¢ | $-56 | $57 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | No | 95.2¢ | 100¢ | +$26 | $667 | 11/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? | Yes | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $34 | 11/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 44.0¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $24 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | No | 98.1¢ | 100¢ | $-26 | $585 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 17.6¢ | 0¢ | $-29 | $39 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 72.7¢ | 100¢ | +$472 | $1,485 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $300 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 56.5¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $23 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? | Yes | 5.2¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | $23 | 07/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | No | 87.4¢ | 0¢ | $-960 | $1,488 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 59.0¢ | 8¢ | $-140 | $252 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 47.8¢ | 92¢ | +$62 | $973 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m? | Yes | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $65 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? | No | 85.8¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $46 | 04/04/2026 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? | No | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $87 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Trump's remarks not air? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $36 | 01/04/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | Yes | 77.2¢ | 100¢ | +$346 | $779 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 80.3¢ | 100¢ | +$109 | $474 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 82.7¢ | 100¢ | +$80 | $505 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 95.5¢ | 100¢ | +$39 | $1,170 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump say "Third term" in March? | No | 71.7¢ | 100¢ | +$29 | $79 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? | No | 93.8¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $169 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? | No | 64.0¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $30 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 90.9¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $143 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026? | No | 86.7¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $58 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $168 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? | No | 83.1¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $31 | 31/03/2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | No | 91.1¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $91 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026? | Yes | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $200 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $69 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 73.6¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $36 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in March? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $286 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | No | 69.3¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $23 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? | Yes | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $647 | 31/03/2026 |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31? | No | 88.1¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $35 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | Yes | 1.5¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $28 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 21, 2026? | No | 99.6¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $67 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in March? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $64 | 31/03/2026 |