Win rate
70.8%
68 W / 28 L
Total PnL
$642
realized $-82 · unrealized $724
Portfolio
$724
volume $104,217
Predictions
305
6.6/day · avg $342
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 24/02/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 19/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 19/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Culture 79% +$346
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m? | Yes | 80¢ | 79¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 70m? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m? | Yes | 51¢ | 100¢ | +$112 | win |
| Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than $17m? | No | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m? | No | 77¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 10m? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m? | Yes | 83¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6m? | Yes | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-103 | loss |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m? | Yes | 48¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | win |
| Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 21m? | No | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
Geopolitics 68% +$262
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 41¢ | 66¢ | +$28 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | No | 64¢ | 0¢ | +$27 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Yes | 72¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? | Yes | 66¢ | 28¢ | +$4 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | No | 36¢ | 0¢ | $-73 | loss |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026? | No | 33¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | loss |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | Yes | 19¢ | 5¢ | $-18 | loss |
| Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? | No | 63¢ | 92¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? | No | 67¢ | 94¢ | +$19 | win |
Elections 100% +$34
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Yes | 15¢ | 18¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will Franck Allisio win the Marseille mayor election? | No | 88¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Benoît Payan win the Marseille mayor election? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will Pacto Histórico win 24-26 seats in the Colombian Senate in the 2026 Colombian parliamentary election? | Yes | 72¢ | 96¢ | +$16 | win |
Other 62% +$32
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Yes | 67¢ | 74¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 45¢ | 10¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1? | No | 10¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | loss |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | loss |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1? | Yes | 50¢ | 57¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"? | Yes | 46¢ | 51¢ | +$4 | win |
| Will MrBeast hit 119 billion views by April 30? | Yes | 51¢ | 93¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Yes | 75¢ | 74¢ | +$16 | win |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? | No | 61¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | win |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 66¢ | 98¢ | +$2 | win |
Politics 100% +$5
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026? | No | 68¢ | 92¢ | +$5 | win |
Crypto 50% $-1
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET | Down | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET | Down | 14¢ | 0¢ | $-21 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? | No | 60.8¢ | 100¢ | +$37 | $61 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 87.3¢ | 0¢ | $-80 | $109 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 70m? | Yes | 61.8¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $30 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 66.0¢ | 98¢ | +$2 | $25 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's latest video get 76 million or more views on day 6? | Yes | 74.6¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $27 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? | No | 49.0¢ | 0¢ | $-35 | $35 | 10/04/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's latest video get between 64 and 65 million views on day 4? | Yes | 45.8¢ | 0¢ | $-150 | $150 | 08/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m? | Yes | 51.1¢ | 100¢ | +$112 | $131 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than $17m? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $28 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m? | No | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $54 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 10m? | Yes | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $20 | 06/04/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026? | No | 41.5¢ | 100¢ | +$112 | $79 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will another country strike Iran by March 31? | No | 55.5¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $97 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 74.0¢ | 100¢ | +$35 | $100 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026? | Yes | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | +$24 | $80 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Yes | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $139 | 31/03/2026 |
| US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | Yes | 93.8¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast hit 474 Million subscribers by March 31? | Yes | 55.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $21 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31? | Yes | 60.5¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $40 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4? | Yes | 66.5¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3? | Yes | 60.7¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $45 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026? | Yes | 44.0¢ | 0¢ | $-26 | $26 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | No | 28.3¢ | 0¢ | $-28 | $72 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast hit 474 Million subscribers by March 31? | No | 16.5¢ | 0¢ | $-37 | $37 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m? | Yes | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $21 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m? | Yes | 84.7¢ | 100¢ | $-28 | $130 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6m? | Yes | 49.9¢ | 0¢ | $-103 | $103 | 30/03/2026 |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m? | Yes | 48.3¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $29 | 23/03/2026 |
| Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 21m? | No | 78.1¢ | 100¢ | +$20 | $72 | 23/03/2026 |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 75m? | No | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$14 | $113 | 23/03/2026 |
| Will "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 11.5m? | No | 78.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $21 | 23/03/2026 |
| Will Franck Allisio win the Marseille mayor election? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $50 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will Benoît Payan win the Marseille mayor election? | Yes | 90.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $45 | 22/03/2026 |
| Will "The Dinosaurs" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? | Yes | 66.6¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $35 | 17/03/2026 |
| Will "Virgin River: Season 7" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? | Yes | 59.0¢ | 0¢ | $-23 | $24 | 17/03/2026 |
| Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week? | Yes | 77.6¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | $36 | 17/03/2026 |
| Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m? | Yes | 54.7¢ | 100¢ | +$213 | $257 | 16/03/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 16? | No | 39.6¢ | 100¢ | +$70 | $50 | 16/03/2026 |
| Will "Scream 7" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 8.5m and 9m? | Yes | 51.2¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $20 | 16/03/2026 |
| Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | +$8 | $20 | 16/03/2026 |
| Will "Hoppers" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 26m and 29m? | Yes | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $37 | 16/03/2026 |
| Will "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 19m? | Yes | 42.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $42 | 16/03/2026 |
| Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 57.4¢ | 100¢ | +$47 | $64 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 47.0¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $25 | 15/03/2026 |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 75.9¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $25 | 15/03/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13? | No | 70.6¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $75 | 13/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 57 million views on day 3? | Yes | 21.3¢ | 100¢ | +$217 | $59 | 08/03/2026 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 55 million views on day 3? | No | 86.6¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $35 | 08/03/2026 |
| Will Pacto Histórico win 24-26 seats in the Colombian Senate in the 2026 Colombian parliamentary election? | Yes | 71.5¢ | 96¢ | +$16 | $46 | 08/03/2026 |