bjack2

Geopolitics 55% +$2,818 $10,993 vol · 20 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	8¢	100¢	+$1,982	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	54¢	100¢	+$634	win
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	70¢	66¢	$-3	loss
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	Yes	98¢	97¢	$-0	loss
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	52¢	38¢	$-17	loss
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	No	68¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will US or Israel strike Iran first?	US	43¢	50¢	+$32	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	Yes	19¢	100¢	+$1,381	win
Will Russia join the Board of Peace?	No	73¢	100¢	+$3	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	No	94¢	0¢	$-22	loss

Crypto 75% +$333 $5,278 vol · 8 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	62¢	36¢	$-32	loss
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?	No	97¢	96¢	$-1	loss
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?	No	85¢	100¢	+$63	win
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February?	No	97¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?	Yes	30¢	100¢	+$24	win

Tech 100% +$324 $1,285 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?	No	73¢	100¢	+$324	win

Elections 100% +$67 $872 vol · 7 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	84¢	90¢	+$10	win
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	60¢	66¢	+$4	win
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	63¢	80¢	+$9	win
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?	No	60¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	No	62¢	100¢	+$20	win
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	No	95¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?	No	28¢	0¢	+$22	win

Sports 100% +$6 $50 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Matthew Stafford win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?	Yes	81¢	100¢	+$6	win

Finance 100% +$5 $100 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?	Yes	64¢	0¢	+$5	win

Economy 100% +$1 $121 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$1	win
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	No	95¢	100¢	+$0	—

Culture 100% +$0 $46 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 14.5m?	Yes	62¢	100¢	+$0	win

Politics 71% $-210 $7,992 vol · 18 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	80¢	92¢	+$25	win
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	97¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Yes	20¢	8¢	+$0	—
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	98¢	100¢	$-70	loss
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	42¢	60¢	+$43	win
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	Yes	39¢	26¢	$-14	loss
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	No	98¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?	Yes	68¢	100¢	+$58	win
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31?	Yes	64¢	100¢	$-50	loss
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?	Yes	90¢	100¢	+$31	win

Other 61% $-940 $7,565 vol · 23 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?	Yes	10¢	8¢	$-25	loss
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	No	78¢	100¢	+$7	win
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	No	23¢	40¢	+$37	win
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-28	loss
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	No	73¢	91¢	+$149	win
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	46¢	24¢	$-40	loss
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?	Yes	85¢	86¢	+$1	win
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	35¢	0¢	$-573	loss
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?	No	98¢	100¢	+$2	win
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?	Yes	64¢	100¢	+$168	win