Win rate
87.6%
3901 W / 552 L
Total PnL
$-317
realized $-1,187 · unrealized $871
Portfolio
$871
volume $819,055
Predictions
5,137
46.7/day · avg $159
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 18/10/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Crypto 96% +$349
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during April press conference? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET | Down | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET | Down | 95¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET | Down | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET | Up | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET | Up | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET | Up | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET | Up | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET | Down | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET | Down | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Economy 50% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Mentions 0% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
Culture 20% $-2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Chloé Zhao win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Arco win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Frankenstein win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
Weather 17% $-2
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a hurricane form by May 31? | No | 94¢ | 96¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 17? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on April 13? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 12? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 13°C or below on March 19? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
Finance 25% $-4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Strava’s market cap be between $7B and $10B at market close on IPO day? | No | 100¢ | 93¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Cerebras IPO before 2027? | Yes | 94¢ | 95¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Brex IPO before 2027? | No | 96¢ | 95¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Comcast close Warner Bros acquisition? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | loss |
Tech 0% $-7
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | Yes | 98¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Yes | 94¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $160 end of March? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
Politics 0% $-32
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | Yes | 37¢ | 50¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? (April 12) | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Trump say "Gay" this week? (April 5) | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Lương Cường be the next President of Vietnam? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
Elections 5% $-45
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 97¢ | 96¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the Progressive Party (PP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Rae Huang win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | No | 98¢ | 95¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will CR win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will La U win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
Sports 0% $-56
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Texas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
Other 12% $-77
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betmoar FDV above $200M one day after launch? | No | 97¢ | 89¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Opinion FDV above $4B one day after launch? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | 91¢ | 93¢ | +$0 | win |
| EU dissolves before 2027? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $-0 | loss |
| New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026? | No | 94¢ | 93¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Yes | 20¢ | 18¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 83¢ | 82¢ | $-13 | loss |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | +$0 | win |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | No | 94¢ | 96¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
Geopolitics 27% $-125
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 100¢ | 98¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | 30¢ | 24¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 33¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? | No | 84¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | No | 93¢ | 99¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 7¢ | 1¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? | No | 81¢ | 90¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | $-110 | loss |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Yes | 15¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET | Down | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $66 | 17/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET | Down | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $77 | 17/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET | Up | 96.1¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $67 | 17/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET | Up | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $78 | 17/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET | Up | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $69 | 17/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET | Up | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $69 | 17/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET | Down | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $129 | 17/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET | Down | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $69 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 17? | No | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $65 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 17? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $128 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Wei Yi win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | No | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $97 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 17? | No | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $82 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Andrey Esipenko win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | No | 98.9¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $229 | 17/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET | Down | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $69 | 17/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET | Down | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $69 | 17/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET | Up | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $69 | 17/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET | Down | 94.3¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $151 | 16/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET | Down | 96.5¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $96 | 16/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET | Down | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $67 | 16/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET | Down | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $98 | 16/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET | Up | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $78 | 16/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET | Up | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $58 | 16/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET | Down | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $78 | 16/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET | Up | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $68 | 16/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET | Up | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $68 | 16/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET | Down | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $68 | 16/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET | Up | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $118 | 16/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET | Up | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $69 | 16/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET | Down | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $69 | 16/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET | Up | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $79 | 16/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET | Down | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $69 | 16/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET | Up | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $69 | 16/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET | Down | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $69 | 16/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET | Up | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $59 | 16/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET | Down | 99.9¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $70 | 16/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET | Up | 91.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $64 | 15/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET | Down | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $66 | 15/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET | Up | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $66 | 15/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET | Up | 94.6¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $38 | 15/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET | Up | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $68 | 15/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET | Up | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $68 | 15/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET | Up | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $78 | 15/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET | Up | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $69 | 15/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET | Down | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $69 | 15/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET | Up | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $49 | 15/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET | Up | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $89 | 15/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET | Down | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $79 | 15/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET | Up | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $39 | 15/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET | Down | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $69 | 15/04/2026 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET | Up | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $69 | 15/04/2026 |