Win rate
84.1%
58 W / 11 L
Total PnL
$1,247
realized $-611 · unrealized $1,858
Portfolio
$1,858
volume $71,840
Predictions
210
2.5/day · avg $342
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 01/10/2024 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 89% +$933
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | Yes | 75¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 23¢ | 40¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | win |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? | No | 87¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first? | Gaza | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Politics 91% +$97
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? | No | 55¢ | 78¢ | +$20 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 26¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 85¢ | 92¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 14, 2026? | Yes | 89¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Brazilian Supreme Court Minister Alexandre de Moraes be impeached 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | win |
| Will Trump visit Gaza by Dec 31? | No | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | win |
| Milei out as President of Argentina in 2025? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Trump say "Brazil" this week? (September 8-14) | Yes | 43¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | win |
Elections 82% +$85
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | No | 94¢ | 96¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | No | 92¢ | 99¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? | Yes | 77¢ | 78¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 47¢ | 40¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | +$1 | win |
Other 77% +$4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? | No | 76¢ | 86¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 56¢ | 48¢ | $-37 | loss |
| No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting? | No | 81¢ | 95¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 87¢ | 95¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Maduro out by March 31, 2026? | No | 63¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | loss |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | win |
| No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's March 2026 meeting? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will the Government shutdown end by January 31? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Bolsonaro leave Brazil in 2025? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Grok be the next CEO of X? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
Sports 100% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil’s 12-month inflation below 5.50% for December 2025? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Economy 100% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | No | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 45.7¢ | 100¢ | +$96 | $301 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 37.0¢ | 100¢ | +$109 | $194 | 07/04/2026 |
| Maduro out by March 31, 2026? | No | 62.7¢ | 0¢ | $-24 | $31 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 80.4¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $165 | 17/03/2026 |
| No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's March 2026 meeting? | No | 91.5¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $26 | 17/03/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 6, 2026? | Yes | 72.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $44 | 06/02/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $28 | 06/02/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 14, 2026? | Yes | 88.5¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $53 | 06/02/2026 |
| Brazil’s 12-month inflation below 5.50% for December 2025? | Yes | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $59 | 31/01/2026 |
| Brazilian Supreme Court Minister Alexandre de Moraes be impeached 2025? | No | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $605 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Trump visit Gaza by Dec 31? | No | 92.8¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $148 | 31/12/2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? | Yes | 62.1¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $34 | 31/12/2025 |
| Maduro out in 2025? | No | 90.3¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $158 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? | Yes | 56.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $42 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Bolsonaro leave Brazil in 2025? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $109 | 31/12/2025 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? | No | 86.7¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $26 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the Government shutdown end by November 30? | Yes | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $29 | 31/12/2025 |
| Milei out as President of Argentina in 2025? | No | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $44 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the Government shutdown end by December 31? | Yes | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $29 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Grok be the next CEO of X? | No | 97.1¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $35 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will the Government shutdown end by January 31? | Yes | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $39 | 31/12/2025 |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $29 | 31/12/2025 |
| Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first? | Gaza | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $28 | 31/12/2025 |
| Fed rate cut in 2025? | Yes | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $40 | 31/12/2025 |
| Will Cruzeiro win the 2025 Brasileiro Serie A league? | No | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $24 | 30/12/2025 |
| Will Flamengo win in regular time against PSG? | No | 84.5¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $42 | 17/12/2025 |
| Maduro out by November 30, 2025? | No | 95.5¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $105 | 30/11/2025 |
| Will Brazil win on 2025-11-18? | Yes | 55.0¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | $33 | 18/11/2025 |
| Will Brazil win on 2025-10-10? | Yes | 98.7¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $31 | 10/10/2025 |
| US government shutdown by October 1? | Yes | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $85 | 01/10/2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? | Yes | 6.1¢ | 0¢ | +$2 | $38 | 30/09/2025 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | No | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $24 | 17/09/2025 |
| Will Trump say "Brazil" this week? (September 8-14) | Yes | 43.4¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $26 | 14/09/2025 |
| Will Jair Bolsonaro be arrested in Brazil by August 31? | Yes | 82.8¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $32 | 31/08/2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $47 | 31/08/2025 |
| 30% EU tariff in effect by August 1? | No | 85.9¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $38 | 01/08/2025 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Yes | 42.0¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $68 | 01/01/1970 |
| Grok 5 released by December 31? | No | 95.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $38 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 41.0¢ | 40¢ | $-8 | $1,295 | 22/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | Yes | 22.5¢ | 40¢ | $-5 | $609 | 22/04/2026 |
| Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting? | No | 90.4¢ | 99¢ | +$5 | $54 | 28/04/2026 |
| No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting? | No | 81.0¢ | 95¢ | $-2 | $32 | 28/04/2026 |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 87.3¢ | 95¢ | $-8 | $196 | 28/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 59.4¢ | 61¢ | +$28 | $1,345 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 77.7¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $54 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 35.5¢ | 60¢ | +$6 | $380 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 15? | Yes | 47.1¢ | 100¢ | +$58 | $61 | 15/05/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 54.7¢ | 72¢ | +$455 | $2,881 | 31/05/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 63.7¢ | 81¢ | +$66 | $1,458 | 31/05/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | Yes | 52.5¢ | 100¢ | +$55 | $108 | 31/05/2026 |