pdlh

Politics 83% +$716 $17,529 vol · 70 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	4¢	4¢	+$3	win
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	73¢	72¢	+$1	win
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	3¢	3¢	+$1	win
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2026?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$9	win
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	88¢	90¢	+$3	win
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	89¢	92¢	+$3	win
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	87¢	94¢	+$8	win
Trump out as President by March 31?	No	97¢	100¢	+$13	win
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?	Yes	69¢	100¢	+$12	win
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	No	91¢	100¢	+$141	win

Tech 79% +$595 $4,666 vol · 15 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Amazon dip to $200 in March?	Yes	87¢	100¢	+$22	win
Will Amazon reach $224 in March?	No	91¢	100¢	+$17	win
Will Tesla reach $503 in February?	No	70¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will Google reach $385 in February?	Yes	18¢	0¢	$-39	loss
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 on February 5?	Yes	89¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will Microsoft reach $495 in January?	No	89¢	100¢	+$53	win
Will Amazon reach $240 in January?	Yes	89¢	100¢	+$10	win
Will Google reach $330 in January?	No	20¢	0¢	$-30	loss
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	49¢	0¢	+$0	—
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	52¢	100¢	+$138	win

Weather 80% +$179 $1,246 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4?	Yes	90¢	100¢	+$23	win
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?	No	81¢	100¢	+$147	win
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?	No	81¢	0¢	$-149	loss
Will all LA wildfires be fully contained before February?	Yes	52¢	100¢	+$18	win

Elections 78% +$93 $1,957 vol · 9 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Yes	88¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?	Yes	91¢	100¢	+$111	win
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland?	No	97¢	100¢	+$8	win
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election?	No	75¢	0¢	$-36	loss
Will a Republican win Alaska Presidential Election?	Yes	95¢	100¢	+$5	win
Trump wins every swing state?	No	80¢	0¢	+$3	win
Will a Republican win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will TS-LKD win the most seats in the 2024 Lithuania legislative election?	Yes	7¢	0¢	$-7	loss

Economy 100% +$16 $197 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
US recession in 2025?	Yes	53¢	0¢	+$16	win

Culture 100% +$1 $85 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	71¢	100¢	+$1	win

Other 83% $-49 $23,073 vol · 90 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	16¢	5¢	+$12	win
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	Yes	73¢	100¢	+$19	win
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon?	No	91¢	84¢	$-13	loss
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	75¢	72¢	$-10	loss
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?	No	95¢	99¢	+$0	win
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	99¢	99¢	$-1	loss
Megaquake by March 31?	No	95¢	100¢	+$67	win
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 70%?	Yes	69¢	100¢	+$38	win
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?	No	93¢	100¢	+$10	win
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?	Yes	75¢	100¢	+$0	win

Sports 78% $-199 $3,939 vol · 18 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?	Yes	85¢	100¢	+$0	win
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 1 Major Playoffs	G2 Minnesota	44¢	0¢	+$8	win
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 1 Major Playoffs	FaZe Vegas	99¢	100¢	+$7	win
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 1 Major Playoffs	Miami Heretics	60¢	100¢	+$24	win
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Toronto KOI (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 1 Major Playoffs	Paris Gentle Mates	81¢	100¢	+$8	win
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?	No	60¢	0¢	$-21	loss
Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championship?	No	98¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Nvidia run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?	No	89¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?	No	39¢	100¢	$-32	loss
World Chess Championship 2024 Winner	Gukesh	73¢	100¢	$-390	loss

Finance 62% $-367 $1,195 vol · 8 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	96¢	100¢	+$6	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 4?	Down	96¢	100¢	+$5	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 21?	Up	90¢	100¢	+$7	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 7?	Down	85¢	100¢	+$16	win
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 7?	Up	87¢	0¢	$-77	loss
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 6?	Up	87¢	100¢	+$6	win
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025?	Yes	67¢	0¢	$-260	loss

Crypto 60% $-529 $1,029 vol · 5 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	30¢	40¢	+$10	win
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $74,000 on February 6?	Yes	84¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will Jiankui He launch a memecoin before May?	No	90¢	100¢	+$30	win
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?	No	71¢	0¢	$-184	loss
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in November?	No	73¢	0¢	$-386	loss

Geopolitics 76% $-930 $22,297 vol · 72 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes	79¢	100¢	+$116	win
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	43¢	30¢	+$22	win
Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	98¢	100¢	+$0	win
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	85¢	91¢	+$8	win
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	86¢	100¢	+$3	win
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?	No	95¢	99¢	+$16	win
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	84¢	100¢	+$3	win
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?	Yes	39¢	100¢	$-5	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	96¢	99¢	+$38	win
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	96¢	0¢	$-36	loss