Win rate
3.2%
21 W / 631 L
Total PnL
$-4,320
realized $-5,755 · unrealized $1,435
Portfolio
$1,435
volume $510,386
Predictions
1,142
102.1/day · avg $447
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 04/04/2026 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | no |
Category breakdown
Weather 0% $-3
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? | No | 83¢ | 82¢ | +$-0 | — |
| Will a hurricane form by May 31? | No | 95¢ | 97¢ | $-3 | loss |
Economy 0% $-32
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? | No | 74¢ | 74¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 91¢ | 96¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the April 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.7%? | No | 95¢ | 96¢ | $-0 | loss |
| No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 96¢ | 96¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Bank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting? | No | 95¢ | 98¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 39¢ | 93¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 9¢ | 7¢ | $-13 | loss |
Crypto 8% $-40
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? | No | 38¢ | 40¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? | No | 93¢ | 78¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 79¢ | 88¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? | No | 41¢ | 42¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? | No | 93¢ | 93¢ | $-1 | loss |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? | No | 36¢ | 12¢ | $-6 | loss |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? | Yes | 71¢ | 88¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? | No | 38¢ | 0¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? | Yes | 76¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? | No | 94¢ | 94¢ | $-0 | loss |
Culture 0% $-60
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | 96¢ | 97¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 43¢ | 53¢ | $-11 | loss |
| New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | No | 46¢ | 42¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? | Yes | 98¢ | 98¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? | No | 7¢ | 68¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month? | Yes | 94¢ | 32¢ | $-36 | loss |
Mentions 0% $-64
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | Yes | 17¢ | 20¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 84¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 73¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Yes | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 85¢ | 100¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | Yes | 14¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | loss |
Tech 10% $-68
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? | Yes | 57¢ | 37¢ | $-0 | loss |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | No | 79¢ | 78¢ | $-2 | loss |
| OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? | No | 76¢ | 72¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026? | No | 44¢ | 34¢ | $-16 | loss |
| OpenAI IPO before 2027? | No | 66¢ | 61¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | No | 35¢ | 30¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | No | 8¢ | 10¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026? | No | 93¢ | 95¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day? | No | 95¢ | 94¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | loss |
Sports 0% $-84
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? | No | 96¢ | 95¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026? | Yes | 88¢ | 86¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2026? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 17¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 65¢ | 53¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Lionel Messi play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 89¢ | 92¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Anthony Cirelli win the 2025–2026 NHL Frank J. Selke Trophy? | No | 97¢ | 98¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | No | 95¢ | 95¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | No | 49¢ | 44¢ | $-17 | loss |
Finance 5% $-158
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | Yes | 94¢ | 94¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on IPO day? | No | 97¢ | 96¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? | Yes | 23¢ | 18¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Mistral AI IPO before 2027? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Anthropic IPO before 2027? | Yes | 53¢ | 52¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | No | 10¢ | 10¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | No | 82¢ | 86¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 96¢ | 95¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day? | No | 88¢ | 84¢ | $-0 | loss |
| No one announced as next James Bond? | Yes | 62¢ | 66¢ | $-1 | loss |
Elections 2% $-369
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 83¢ | 83¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 10¢ | 10¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | No | 77¢ | 76¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 76¢ | 72¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Republican Party win the IL-02 House seat? | No | 94¢ | 96¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will the Republican Party win the VT-AL House seat? | Yes | 5¢ | 6¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 91¢ | 92¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will the Republican Party win the IL-06 House seat? | No | 95¢ | 94¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-25 House seat? | Yes | 88¢ | 88¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will the Democratic Party win the MI-02 House seat? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $-0 | loss |
Geopolitics 4% $-925
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027? | Yes | 49¢ | 54¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | No | 77¢ | 86¢ | +$0 | win |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | No | 84¢ | 79¢ | +$0 | — |
| Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay | No | 82¢ | 84¢ | +$0 | — |
| Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? | No | 96¢ | 97¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | No | 65¢ | 22¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 9¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | No | 71¢ | 74¢ | $-1 | loss |
Politics 3% $-1,031
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 72¢ | 72¢ | $-3 | loss |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 62¢ | 61¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 39¢ | 39¢ | $-5 | loss |
| Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31? | No | 82¢ | 81¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | 45¢ | 43¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Barack Obama announce a Presidential run before 2027? | No | 96¢ | 95¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2026? | No | 96¢ | 94¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026? | No | 83¢ | 86¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? | No | 54¢ | 57¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027? | Yes | 16¢ | 10¢ | $-39 | loss |
Other 3% $-1,111
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluent FDV above $20M one day after launch? | Yes | 96¢ | 98¢ | $-0 | loss |
| GRVT FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 96¢ | 94¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Yes | 33¢ | 48¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? | No | 41¢ | 40¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? | No | 89¢ | 88¢ | $-1 | loss |
| USD.AI FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Yes | 96¢ | 99¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will Lighter reach $3 before 2027? | Yes | 17¢ | 18¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027? | No | 83¢ | 84¢ | $-9 | loss |
| Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $3B in 2026? | Yes | 92¢ | 92¢ | $-0 | loss |
| Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | 90¢ | 92¢ | $-5 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT Outage by April 17? | No | 47.0¢ | 0¢ | +$0 | $21 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | No | 95.3¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $48 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $49 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of April 13 2026? | Yes | 53.0¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $31 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | No | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | $-5 | $438 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Yes | 17.0¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | $102 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? | Yes | 18.0¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | $108 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will none of the eaglets hatch before April 17? | No | 96.6¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $97 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the first eaglet hatch on April 14, 2026? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $97 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the first eaglet hatch on April 15, 2026? | No | 97.7¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $98 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Trevor win the Legend Trade Series? | No | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $70 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will the first eaglet hatch on April 10, 2026? | No | 80.0¢ | 100¢ | $-10 | $141 | 16/04/2026 |
| Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 15, 2026? | No | 95.4¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $72 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 95.7¢ | 10¢ | $-1 | $191 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 11.0¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $22 | 15/04/2026 |
| Anyang vs. Seoul Knights | Seoul Knights | 45.0¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $45 | 15/04/2026 |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026? | No | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | $-2 | $176 | 15/04/2026 |
| US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? | Yes | 4.8¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | $29 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 24.0¢ | 0¢ | $-5 | $121 | 15/04/2026 |
| DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? | Yes | 5.0¢ | 0¢ | $-9 | $28 | 15/04/2026 |
| GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026? | Yes | 78.0¢ | 92¢ | $-12 | $468 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | $-12 | $552 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Javokhir Sindarov win on 2026-04-08 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? | No | 73.0¢ | 100¢ | $-13 | $438 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? | No | 93.0¢ | 0¢ | $-559 | $651 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 77.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $38 | 14/04/2026 |
| T20 Series Indonesia vs Sweden: Indonesia vs Sweden | Indonesia | 42.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $21 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in March 2026 be between 3.1% and 3.3%? | Yes | 64.0¢ | 0¢ | $-3 | $102 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 88.0¢ | 100¢ | $-4 | $327 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | $-8 | $426 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? | No | 85.0¢ | 100¢ | $-11 | $510 | 14/04/2026 |
| Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? | No | 95.4¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $56 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Tatiana Auguste win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada? | No | 38.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $40 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada? | No | 64.0¢ | 100¢ | $-29 | $397 | 13/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 64.0¢ | 99¢ | +$6 | $581 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 68.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $26 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? | No | 84.0¢ | 82¢ | +$0 | $33 | 12/04/2026 |
| Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Chennai Super Kings | Royal Challengers Bangalore | 58.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $29 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 60 seats? | Yes | 87.1¢ | 0¢ | $-0 | $44 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Alfonso López Chau finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $25 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election? | No | 96.9¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $48 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will the Two-Tailed Dog Party (MKKP) finish with the third-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 96.8¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $48 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Alfonso López Chau and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? | No | 97.8¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $49 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 75% and 80%? | No | 76.0¢ | 98¢ | $-0 | $32 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%? | No | 97.3¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $124 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win 90–99 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election? | No | 89.0¢ | 100¢ | $-0 | $44 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 91.1¢ | 18¢ | $-1 | $77 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 CAQ leadership elections? | Yes | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $54 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Fidesz–KDNP finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | No | 28.0¢ | 0¢ | $-1 | $21 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 12-15%? | No | 87.0¢ | 13¢ | $-1 | $87 | 12/04/2026 |
| Will Tisza win at least 100 seats? | Yes | 66.0¢ | 100¢ | $-1 | $40 | 12/04/2026 |