Win rate
69.5%
255 W / 112 L
Total PnL
$9,079
realized $-6,773 · unrealized $15,852
Portfolio
$15,852
volume $693,777
Predictions
536
11.2/day · avg $1,294
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 24/10/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 70% +$4,148
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027? | Yes | 53¢ | 54¢ | +$11 | win |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 20¢ | 18¢ | $-8 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027? | Yes | 39¢ | 42¢ | +$8 | win |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | No | 66¢ | 30¢ | $-107 | loss |
| Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? | No | 48¢ | 73¢ | +$1 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? | No | 26¢ | 0¢ | $-524 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 58¢ | 82¢ | +$138 | win |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | No | 61¢ | 70¢ | +$123 | win |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | No | 54¢ | 74¢ | +$33 | win |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
Other 68% +$3,383
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | Yes | 14¢ | 36¢ | +$44 | win |
| US strike on Mexico by December 31? | No | 71¢ | 78¢ | +$63 | win |
| Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? | No | 49¢ | 95¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | Yes | 19¢ | 16¢ | +$61 | win |
| Insurrection Act invoked by June 30? | No | 52¢ | 90¢ | +$7 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? | No | 80¢ | 78¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 82¢ | 82¢ | +$6 | win |
| Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? | Yes | 44¢ | 23¢ | $-62 | loss |
| Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? | Yes | 22¢ | 24¢ | +$6 | win |
| 5kt meteor strike in 2026? | Yes | 58¢ | 42¢ | $-72 | loss |
Elections 80% +$726
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $-14 | loss |
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | No | 77¢ | 78¢ | +$7 | win |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 65¢ | 64¢ | +$329 | win |
| 2026 Balance of Power: Other | Yes | 0¢ | 1¢ | +$25 | win |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? | Yes | 57¢ | 75¢ | +$99 | win |
| Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-39 | loss |
| Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%? | No | 70¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | win |
Tech 100% +$138
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | No | 64¢ | 29¢ | +$0 | — |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | No | 72¢ | 78¢ | +$138 | win |
Sports 67% +$79
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 86¢ | 84¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 17¢ | +$18 | win |
| Will Norway win UEFA Group I for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$51 | win |
| Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? | Yes | 78¢ | 100¢ | +$42 | win |
Culture 40% +$73
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 62¢ | 100¢ | +$76 | win |
| Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $-2 | loss |
| Will Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $-4 | loss |
| Will Renate Reinsve win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $-8 | loss |
Weather 67% $-4
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 4? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | loss |
| Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in November 2025? | No | 86¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
Politics 73% $-9
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | $-36 | loss |
| Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026? | No | 84¢ | 87¢ | +$29 | win |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 89¢ | 92¢ | +$16 | win |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | Yes | 64¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | 82¢ | 84¢ | +$2 | win |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? | No | 82¢ | 85¢ | +$1 | win |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | No | 84¢ | 94¢ | +$3 | win |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet? | Yes | 51¢ | 79¢ | +$0 | — |
| Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | No | 65¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | win |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th? | No | 81¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bodø/Glimt reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? | Yes | 39.5¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | $43 | 16/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 15.0¢ | 100¢ | +$851 | $165 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | No | 75.6¢ | 13¢ | +$50 | $454 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | No | 89.0¢ | 0¢ | +$18 | $356 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 77.8¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $206 | 15/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Yes | 24.0¢ | 0¢ | $-6 | $24 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 87.8¢ | 87¢ | $-2 | $176 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 64.0¢ | 99¢ | +$35 | $64 | 12/04/2026 |
| US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? | Yes | 21.0¢ | 0¢ | +$334 | $375 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 3.5¢ | 100¢ | +$678 | $31 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 14.2¢ | 13¢ | $-125 | $398 | 07/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 88.0¢ | 87¢ | $-2 | $176 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Norway win UEFA Group I for 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $476 | 06/04/2026 |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1,165 | $11,603 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | No | 91.5¢ | 100¢ | +$208 | $412 | 31/03/2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei | No | 23.5¢ | 100¢ | +$155 | $47 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? | No | 71.2¢ | 100¢ | +$135 | $1,134 | 31/03/2026 |
| Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31? | No | 89.3¢ | 100¢ | +$93 | $2,362 | 31/03/2026 |
| U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? | Yes | 8.0¢ | 0¢ | +$91 | $87 | 31/03/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? | No | 92.2¢ | 100¢ | +$90 | $1,377 | 31/03/2026 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31? | No | 93.4¢ | 100¢ | +$77 | $1,480 | 31/03/2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | No | 99.3¢ | 100¢ | +$73 | $3,320 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31? | No | 19.9¢ | 100¢ | +$68 | $56 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | No | 65.1¢ | 100¢ | +$65 | $326 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | No | 82.1¢ | 100¢ | +$62 | $290 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? | No | 91.1¢ | 100¢ | +$61 | $394 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | No | 82.5¢ | 100¢ | +$61 | $1,459 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28? | No | 83.6¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | $437 | 31/03/2026 |
| Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31? | Yes | 30.0¢ | 0¢ | +$40 | $60 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31? | Yes | 93.7¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $544 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | No | 80.2¢ | 100¢ | +$36 | $160 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | No | 42.2¢ | 100¢ | +$33 | $182 | 31/03/2026 |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31? | No | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | +$28 | $752 | 31/03/2026 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by March 31, 2026? | No | 88.5¢ | 100¢ | +$25 | $409 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 55.0¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | $28 | 31/03/2026 |
| Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? | Yes | 31.0¢ | 0¢ | +$19 | $33 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th? | No | 81.0¢ | 100¢ | +$19 | $81 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by March 31? | Yes | 88.6¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $124 | 31/03/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th? | Yes | 17.0¢ | 0¢ | +$15 | $51 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by March 31? | No | 83.0¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $355 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Hryshyne by February 28, 2026? | No | 79.5¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $78 | 31/03/2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | No | 82.2¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $370 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? | No | 72.3¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $22 | 31/03/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? | No | 92.0¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $92 | 31/03/2026 |
| U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by March 31? | Yes | 82.0¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $34 | 31/03/2026 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31? | Yes | 31.8¢ | 0¢ | +$5 | $86 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 15, 2026? | Yes | 97.4¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $176 | 31/03/2026 |
| US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? | No | 70.4¢ | 0¢ | +$4 | $177 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by April 30? | Yes | 96.7¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $97 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Russia capture Sofiivka by March 31? | No | 48.1¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $49 | 31/03/2026 |