Valen9

Geopolitics 74% +$312,255 $2,003,848 vol · 184 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	38¢	70¢	+$30	win
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	15¢	0¢	$-447	loss
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	No	13¢	0¢	$-7,793	loss
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$1,533	win
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	No	19¢	0¢	+$1,460	win
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	No	94¢	100¢	+$300	win
Will the US strike Iran next?	No	95¢	100¢	+$157	win
Will the US strike Iran next?	No	95¢	100¢	+$98	win
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	59¢	30¢	$-412	loss
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	56¢	69¢	+$4,562	win

Politics 72% +$32,177 $729,512 vol · 76 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$-20	loss
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	Yes	5¢	0¢	$-450	loss
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	96¢	100¢	+$1,903	win
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	88¢	92¢	+$0	—
Will a new Cabinet of the Netherlands be sworn in by March 31, 2026?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$33	win
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	90¢	40¢	$-601	loss
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	Yes	31¢	1¢	+$46	win
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	No	97¢	99¢	+$277	win
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	54¢	48¢	$-830	loss
Trump out as President by April 30?	No	97¢	99¢	+$123	win

Sports 77% +$23,635 $161,886 vol · 31 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will F1: The Movie win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	26¢	0¢	$-339	loss
Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	44¢	100¢	+$2,171	win
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	18¢	0¢	$-1,221	loss
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	51¢	0¢	$-3,573	loss
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	14¢	0¢	$-1,007	loss
Will the United States win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	85¢	100¢	+$500	win
Will Brazil record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	35¢	100¢	+$193	win
Will Germany win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	No	97¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will Italy win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	No	96¢	100¢	+$124	win
Will Italy win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	No	98¢	100¢	+$65	win

Other 64% +$12,136 $648,697 vol · 111 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	84¢	100¢	+$1,603	win
Insurrection Act invoked by March 31?	No	92¢	100¢	+$1,217	win
Will the US strike Somalia next?	Yes	79¢	100¢	+$562	win
Will the US strike Syria next?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-22	loss
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	78¢	82¢	+$210	win
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	40¢	38¢	+$24	win
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?	No	84¢	86¢	$-10	loss
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	44¢	62¢	+$3,715	win
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?	No	73¢	76¢	+$50	win
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	94¢	95¢	$-103	loss

Culture 74% +$4,600 $108,708 vol · 27 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	74¢	100¢	+$5,584	win
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	83¢	100¢	+$1,273	win
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	91¢	100¢	+$956	win
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	89¢	100¢	+$855	win
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	89¢	100¢	+$582	win
Will KPop Demon Hunters win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	92¢	100¢	+$475	win
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	98¢	100¢	+$167	win
Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	95¢	100¢	+$162	win
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	81¢	100¢	+$145	win
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$128	win

Crypto 83% +$3,837 $44,485 vol · 12 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?	No	93¢	98¢	+$85	win
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?	No	87¢	100¢	$-600	loss
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?	Yes	93¢	100¢	+$299	win
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?	No	9¢	0¢	+$31	win
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February?	No	93¢	100¢	+$134	win
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?	Yes	71¢	100¢	+$1,098	win

Economy 100% +$2,792 $160,580 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	90¢	92¢	+$0	—
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	98¢	99¢	+$330	win
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	98¢	100¢	+$2,461	win

Elections 64% +$229 $199,637 vol · 25 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	45¢	11¢	$-1,064	loss
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	58¢	34¢	$-1,728	loss
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Yes	89¢	90¢	+$71	win
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$21	win
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	No	0¢	0¢	$-10	loss
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?	No	7¢	6¢	$-78	loss
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	83¢	100¢	+$1,676	win
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	83¢	100¢	+$316	win
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?	Yes	91¢	0¢	$-140	loss
Will CD win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?	Yes	9¢	0¢	$-258	loss

Tech 50% $-3,265 $7,912 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?	Yes	94¢	100¢	+$51	win
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?	No	2¢	0¢	$-48	loss
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?	No	77¢	100¢	+$90	win
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?	Yes	9¢	0¢	$-3,358	loss

Finance 33% $-6,887 $22,974 vol · 3 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 6, 2026?	No	95¢	100¢	+$200	win
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	83¢	0¢	$-2,446	loss
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day?	No	4¢	0¢	$-4,640	loss