Win rate
81.3%
74 W / 17 L
Total PnL
$6,689
realized $17 · unrealized $6,673
Portfolio
$6,673
volume $677,269
Predictions
121
2.1/day · avg $5,597
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 12/09/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Economy 74% +$4,241
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 6¢ | 4¢ | +$50 | win |
| Bank of England increases interest rates after April 2026 meeting? | No | 93¢ | 98¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | Yes | 68¢ | 99¢ | +$58 | win |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | No | 5¢ | 1¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | win |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 50¢ | 0¢ | $-48 | loss |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | — |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 9¢ | 0¢ | +$82 | win |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $-988 | loss |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | No | 16¢ | 0¢ | +$54 | win |
Other 86% +$2,680
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | 70¢ | 62¢ | +$28 | win |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | No | 52¢ | 38¢ | $-12 | loss |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? | No | 81¢ | 94¢ | +$2 | win |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 50¢ | 37¢ | $-200 | loss |
| Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? | No | 13¢ | 91¢ | +$42 | win |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? | Yes | 93¢ | 100¢ | +$51 | win |
| Will SOFR hit 3.70% (High) between April 1 and April 30? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? | No | 71¢ | 100¢ | +$53 | win |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? | No | 88¢ | 78¢ | +$12 | win |
| Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10? | Yes | 61¢ | 0¢ | $-103 | loss |
Geopolitics 50% +$575
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | Yes | 87¢ | 94¢ | +$79 | win |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 50¢ | 100¢ | +$649 | win |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 69¢ | 8¢ | $-65 | loss |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $-68 | loss |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | win |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Yes | 23¢ | 0¢ | $-22 | loss |
Politics 100% +$156
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | Yes | 7¢ | 0¢ | +$91 | win |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? | Yes | 42¢ | 48¢ | +$6 | win |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 14, 2026? | Yes | 74¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | win |
| Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? | No | 89¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | win |
Finance 100% +$12
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Powell say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" 7+ times during March press conference? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | win |
Sports 67% $-13
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during March press conference? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | win |
| T20 World Cup: India vs USA (Game 1) | USA | 18¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | loss |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in January? | No | 79¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | win |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of April 13 2026? | Yes | 97.6¢ | 100¢ | +$5 | $193 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 Week of April 13 2026? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $35 | 17/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 14, 2026? | Yes | 74.5¢ | 100¢ | +$44 | $223 | 14/04/2026 |
| JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? | No | 49.9¢ | 100¢ | +$649 | $1,320 | 10/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | No | 68.7¢ | 8¢ | $-65 | $687 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will the March 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%? | Yes | 93.0¢ | 100¢ | +$38 | $500 | 03/04/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? | No | 95.2¢ | 100¢ | +$221 | $4,813 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? | Yes | 77.3¢ | 100¢ | +$168 | $2,202 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? | No | 95.9¢ | 100¢ | +$91 | $3,796 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | No | 78.4¢ | 100¢ | +$90 | $329 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March? | Yes | 78.6¢ | 100¢ | +$30 | $112 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will SOFR hit 3.66% (Low) between March 1 and March 31? | Yes | 98.4¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $658 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? | No | 87.0¢ | 100¢ | +$9 | $87 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will SOFR hit 3.68% (Low) between March 1 and March 31? | Yes | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$7 | $531 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | Yes | 87.0¢ | 0¢ | +$3 | $26 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 20? | Yes | 20.6¢ | 0¢ | +$84 | $72 | 20/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by March 20? | Yes | 31.0¢ | 0¢ | $-43 | $62 | 20/03/2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 6.0¢ | 0¢ | +$1,868 | $4,959 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 86.0¢ | 100¢ | +$131 | $1,825 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will Powell say "Gold" or "Oil" during March press conference? | Yes | 94.5¢ | 100¢ | +$41 | $713 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will Powell say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" 7+ times during March press conference? | No | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | +$12 | $300 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will Powell say "Comment" during March press conference? | No | 96.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $37 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will Powell say "Not our job" during March press conference? | No | 97.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $44 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will Powell say "Distortion" during March press conference? | No | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $50 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during March press conference? | No | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1 | $299 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | No | 50.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $50 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | Yes | 50.0¢ | 0¢ | $-48 | $50 | 18/03/2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by March 13? | No | 99.1¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $1,982 | 13/03/2026 |
| Will SOFR hit 3.59% (Low) between February 13 and February 28? | No | 98.5¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $651 | 02/03/2026 |
| Will SOFR hit 3.57% (Low) between February 13 and February 28? | No | 98.3¢ | 100¢ | +$8 | $499 | 02/03/2026 |
| T20 World Cup: India vs USA (Game 1) | USA | 17.7¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $20 | 14/02/2026 |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in January? | No | 79.0¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $24 | 11/02/2026 |
| International T20 Series: India vs New Zealand (Game 3) | India | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $289 | 01/02/2026 |
| International T20 Series: India vs New Zealand (Game 3) | New Zealand | 25.0¢ | 0¢ | $-18 | $25 | 01/02/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026? | Yes | 99.7¢ | 100¢ | +$3 | $1,836 | 31/01/2026 |
| International T20 Series: India vs New Zealand (Game 2) | India | 94.1¢ | 100¢ | +$6 | $94 | 30/01/2026 |
| Starmer out in 2025? | Yes | 6.0¢ | 0¢ | $-19 | $60 | 31/12/2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | Yes | 13.0¢ | 0¢ | $-68 | $130 | 31/12/2025 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 27.7¢ | 0¢ | +$1,968 | $12,444 | 10/12/2025 |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 0.5¢ | 0¢ | +$815 | $20 | 10/12/2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 54.7¢ | 100¢ | +$337 | $4,317 | 10/12/2025 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? | No | 47.0¢ | 100¢ | +$158 | $1,410 | 10/12/2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Yes | 9.3¢ | 0¢ | +$82 | $2,891 | 10/12/2025 |
| Will the Fed cut-cut-cut in 2025? | No | 29.6¢ | 0¢ | +$41 | $200 | 10/12/2025 |
| Will no one dissent the December Fed decision? | No | 91.8¢ | 100¢ | +$16 | $230 | 10/12/2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | No | 28.0¢ | 0¢ | +$10 | $840 | 10/12/2025 |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | No | 71.0¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | $329 | 10/12/2025 |
| Will four or more people dissent the December Fed decision? | Yes | 17.7¢ | 0¢ | $-7 | $72 | 10/12/2025 |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | No | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | $-988 | $1,988 | 10/12/2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? | No | 16.3¢ | 0¢ | +$54 | $1,238 | 29/10/2025 |