Win rate
60.0%
51 W / 34 L
Total PnL
$18,699
realized $-13,373 · unrealized $32,071
Portfolio
$32,071
volume $665,437
Predictions
87
1.4/day · avg $7,649
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 31/12/2025 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 57% +$24,064
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 24¢ | 100¢ | +$2,427 | win |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | Yes | 84¢ | 100¢ | +$161 | win |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | No | 58¢ | 0¢ | +$11 | win |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | Yes | 29¢ | 25¢ | $-130 | loss |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 1, 2026? | Yes | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | win |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026? | Yes | 6¢ | 0¢ | $-62 | loss |
| Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? | No | 11¢ | 0¢ | $-85 | loss |
| Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026? | No | 7¢ | 0¢ | $-99 | loss |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 66¢ | 90¢ | $-65 | loss |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | +$39 | win |
Politics 100% +$128
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 97¢ | 100¢ | +$127 | win |
| Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | +$0 | win |
Elections 0% +$0
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 81¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 19¢ | +$0 | — |
Other 75% $-5,259
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | +$0 | win |
| Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | +$34 | win |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Yes | 63¢ | 63¢ | $-10 | loss |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 96¢ | 100¢ | +$220 | win |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? | Yes | 34¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | win |
| US strike on Syria by December 31? | No | 98¢ | 100¢ | +$22 | win |
| US strikes Yemen by December 31? | Yes | 6¢ | 100¢ | +$817 | win |
| US strikes Yemen by December 31? | No | 61¢ | 0¢ | $-6,356 | loss |
Recent Trades (50)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | Yes | 99.0¢ | 100¢ | +$10,998 | $46,939 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 12.5¢ | 0¢ | +$39 | $250 | 15/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 66.1¢ | 90¢ | $-65 | $500 | 15/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | No | 93.8¢ | 100¢ | $-3,680 | $8,268 | 15/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$31 | $6,460 | 10/04/2026 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Yes | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$9,994 | $27,357 | 07/04/2026 |
| Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? | Yes | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$127 | $4,448 | 07/04/2026 |
| Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026? | No | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | +$288 | $50 | 31/03/2026 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? | No | 95.7¢ | 100¢ | +$220 | $5,000 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? | Yes | 1.2¢ | 0¢ | +$176 | $99 | 31/03/2026 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026? | Yes | 97.9¢ | 100¢ | +$99 | $4,590 | 31/03/2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Yes | 96.3¢ | 100¢ | +$88 | $2,428 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 9, 2026? | Yes | 99.2¢ | 100¢ | +$27 | $3,229 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 7, 2026? | Yes | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | +$23 | $3,483 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 23, 2026? | Yes | 98.8¢ | 100¢ | +$15 | $1,501 | 31/03/2026 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? | Yes | 33.5¢ | 0¢ | +$14 | $501 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 8, 2026? | Yes | 98.0¢ | 100¢ | +$4 | $220 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? | Yes | 28.2¢ | 0¢ | $-41 | $520 | 31/03/2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026? | Yes | 6.4¢ | 0¢ | $-119 | $119 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? | No | 0.8¢ | 0¢ | $-150 | $150 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Yes | 27.9¢ | 0¢ | $-663 | $1,250 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4? | Yes | 54.4¢ | 0¢ | $-923 | $1,252 | 31/03/2026 |
| Will the number of Israel Rocket Alerts since Operation Lion's Roar be at least 20,000 by March 20? | No | 85.8¢ | 100¢ | +$161 | $1,000 | 20/03/2026 |
| Will the number of Israel Rocket Alerts since Operation Lion's Roar be at least 24,000 by March 20? | No | 97.5¢ | 100¢ | +$10 | $380 | 20/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026? | Yes | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$203 | $9,900 | 10/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? | Yes | 97.2¢ | 100¢ | +$126 | $4,782 | 10/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 9, 2026? | Yes | 99.5¢ | 100¢ | +$11 | $3,410 | 10/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026? | Yes | 99.8¢ | 100¢ | +$2 | $1,188 | 10/03/2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026? | Yes | 99.4¢ | 100¢ | $-79 | $6,428 | 10/03/2026 |
| Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? | Yes | 71.7¢ | 100¢ | +$1,418 | $6,080 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 5, 2026? | Yes | 30.0¢ | 100¢ | +$843 | $361 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026? | Yes | 42.0¢ | 100¢ | +$724 | $525 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026? | Yes | 78.0¢ | 100¢ | +$503 | $1,787 | 28/02/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 18.0¢ | 100¢ | $-6 | $113 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Israel strike 3 countries in February 2026? | Yes | 10.0¢ | 0¢ | $-20 | $20 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026? | Yes | 54.4¢ | 0¢ | $-36 | $250 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on February 2, 2026? | Yes | 6.2¢ | 0¢ | $-40 | $42 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on February 3, 2026? | Yes | 20.0¢ | 0¢ | $-122 | $133 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 1, 2026? | No | 27.8¢ | 0¢ | $-175 | $175 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on February 25, 2026? | Yes | 16.6¢ | 0¢ | $-261 | $263 | 28/02/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026? | Yes | 36.4¢ | 0¢ | $-302 | $303 | 28/02/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | Yes | 18.0¢ | 100¢ | +$2,167 | $1,286 | 31/01/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | No | 67.8¢ | 100¢ | +$195 | $4,497 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? | Yes | 4.6¢ | 0¢ | +$138 | $382 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | Yes | 8.4¢ | 0¢ | +$1 | $84 | 31/01/2026 |
| US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? | Yes | 2.6¢ | 0¢ | $-14 | $45 | 31/01/2026 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on January 26, 2026? | Yes | 4.5¢ | 0¢ | $-646 | $645 | 31/01/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | No | 69.8¢ | 100¢ | $-276 | $4,088 | 23/01/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? | No | 94.2¢ | 100¢ | $-1,415 | $5,995 | 14/01/2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? | Yes | 12.7¢ | 0¢ | $-3,610 | $3,610 | 14/01/2026 |