classified

Geopolitics 58% +$281,994 $10,116,606 vol · 695 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	36¢	70¢	+$177	win
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes	81¢	100¢	+$23,632	win
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	Yes	100¢	100¢	$-25,644	loss
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$1,240	win
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	Yes	6¢	0¢	$-2,180	loss
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	71¢	84¢	+$3,561	win
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	33¢	16¢	+$3,425	win
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	80¢	0¢	$-21,225	loss
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	42¢	30¢	+$2,386	win
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	45¢	76¢	+$667	win

Politics 63% +$139,484 $4,591,239 vol · 201 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	50¢	72¢	+$0	—
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	50¢	61¢	+$0	—
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	50¢	28¢	+$0	—
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	50¢	39¢	+$0	—
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$-9,818	loss
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	No	100¢	100¢	$-23,057	loss
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	83¢	92¢	+$215	win
Trump declassifies UFO files before 2027?	Yes	70¢	100¢	+$68	win
Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?	No	100¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	99¢	99¢	+$0	—

Other 61% +$50,582 $3,229,643 vol · 447 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Lighter Airdrop on January 7?	No	95¢	100¢	+$1	win
Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	4¢	0¢	$-2,887	loss
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027?	No	66¢	100¢	+$67	win
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?	Yes	24¢	22¢	+$50	win
Maduro out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$27	win
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	Yes	56¢	20¢	+$11	win
Will the US not strike another country before 2027?	No	99¢	100¢	+$5	win
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?	No	100¢	100¢	$-1,964	loss
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?	No	89¢	92¢	+$2	win
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	98¢	99¢	+$0	—

Elections 52% +$46,669 $5,106,734 vol · 168 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	50¢	81¢	+$0	—
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	50¢	19¢	+$0	—
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	50¢	84¢	+$0	—
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	50¢	16¢	+$0	—
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	No	17¢	0¢	$-888	loss
Ukraine election called in 2025?	No	99¢	100¢	+$74	win
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2025?	No	100¢	100¢	+$2	win
Will an election be called instead of appointing a Prime Minister?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$-48	loss
Will Anca Alexandrescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?	No	99¢	100¢	$-1,959	loss
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?	Yes	99¢	100¢	$-7,185	loss

Tech 93% +$7,118 $429,135 vol · 45 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026?	Yes	100¢	100¢	$-433	loss
GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?	No	0¢	0¢	+$70	win
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	Yes	6¢	0¢	+$618	win
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025?	Yes	87¢	100¢	+$272	win
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025?	No	80¢	100¢	+$176	win
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	No	52¢	100¢	+$101	win
OpenAI browser in 2025?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$52	win
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$17	win
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?	No	100¢	100¢	$-2,247	loss
Apple Vision Pro 2 released by December 31?	No	92¢	100¢	+$131	win

Crypto 88% +$5,418 $122,685 vol · 33 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Geert Wilders become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?	Yes	4¢	0¢	+$490	win
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	Yes	47¢	49¢	+$1,085	win
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?	No	51¢	51¢	$-82	loss
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March?	No	94¢	100¢	+$4	win
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?	Yes	97¢	100¢	+$89	win
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025?	Yes	2¢	0¢	+$1,685	win
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?	No	34¢	100¢	+$340	win
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?	Yes	26¢	0¢	+$95	win
Will edgeX launch a token in 2025?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$15	win
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?	No	100¢	100¢	+$49	win

Economy 73% +$4,954 $744,574 vol · 26 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?	Yes	-0¢	0¢	+$99	win
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?	No	98¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will Japan’s January 2026 unemployment rate be 2.6%?	Yes	0¢	0¢	+$1	win
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	2¢	0¢	+$591	win
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?	No	97¢	100¢	$-410	loss
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?	Yes	14¢	0¢	$-5,926	loss
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?	No	2¢	0¢	+$0	—
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	31¢	0¢	$-31,441	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	No	97¢	100¢	$-36,771	loss
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?	Yes	82¢	100¢	+$15	win

Mentions 33% +$138 $1,106 vol · 4 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025?	No	36¢	0¢	$-37	loss
Will Elon tweet between 240 and 259 times September 5–12?	No	100¢	100¢	+$0	—
Will Elon tweet between 220 and 239 times September 5–12?	Yes	99¢	100¢	$-216	loss

Weather 100% +$19 $682 vol · 2 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?	No	89¢	97¢	+$15	win
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31?	Yes	99¢	100¢	+$4	win

Culture 0% +$0 $33 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025?	Yes	0¢	0¢	+$0	—

Finance 0% $-32 $131 vol · 1 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 18, 2026?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$-32	loss

Sports 76% $-2,170 $51,067 vol · 26 trades

Market	Position	Avg Price	Cur Price	PnL	Status
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?	No	89¢	100¢	+$64	win
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of December 1 above $90?	Yes	100¢	100¢	+$1	win
Eagles vs. Giants	Giants	21¢	100¢	+$0	—
Chiefs vs. Jaguars	Jaguars	35¢	100¢	+$20	win
49ers vs. Rams	49ers	23¢	100¢	+$1,083	win
Bengals vs. Broncos	Bengals	20¢	0¢	+$42	win
Jets vs. Dolphins	Jets	39¢	0¢	+$45	win
Eagles vs. Buccaneers	Eagles	61¢	100¢	+$60	win
Chargers vs. Giants	Chargers	70¢	0¢	+$34	win
Eagles vs. Buccaneers	Buccaneers	34¢	0¢	+$30	win