Win rate
69.7%
23 W / 10 L
Total PnL
$309
realized $-1,503 · unrealized $1,812
Portfolio
$1,812
volume $4,318
Predictions
31
1.1/day · avg $139
PnL history
Details
| Joined | 31/12/1969 |
|---|---|
| Last activity | 17/04/2026 |
| Profiled at | 17/04/2026 |
| Qualified | yes |
Category breakdown
Geopolitics 80% +$442
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | 48¢ | 70¢ | +$47 | win |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 58¢ | 69¢ | +$20 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | No | 48¢ | 26¢ | $-33 | loss |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 77¢ | 81¢ | +$3 | win |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Yes | 37¢ | 66¢ | +$52 | win |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | No | 75¢ | 84¢ | +$3 | win |
| Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? | No | 66¢ | 83¢ | +$25 | win |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | No | 44¢ | 32¢ | $-6 | loss |
| Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? | No | 58¢ | 72¢ | +$6 | win |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 40¢ | 52¢ | +$15 | win |
Other 67% +$14
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 39¢ | 51¢ | +$30 | win |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | Yes | 57¢ | 62¢ | +$9 | win |
| Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? | No | 38¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | loss |
Politics 20% $-113
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? | No | 72¢ | 72¢ | +$0 | — |
| Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | No | 71¢ | 0¢ | $-99 | loss |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | Yes | 34¢ | 37¢ | +$5 | win |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | No | 54¢ | 42¢ | $-11 | loss |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | No | 56¢ | 55¢ | $-1 | loss |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? | No | 62¢ | 48¢ | $-8 | loss |
Recent Trades (34)
| Market | Position | Avg Price | Cur Price | PnL | Volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | Yes | 49.5¢ | 87¢ | +$75 | $100 | 15/04/2026 |
| Will 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12? | No | 38.0¢ | 0¢ | $-25 | $25 | 12/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | Yes | 46.1¢ | 86¢ | +$87 | $100 | 07/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? | Yes | 49.0¢ | 61¢ | +$6 | $25 | 01/01/1970 |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | Yes | 42.2¢ | 79¢ | +$85 | $98 | 21/04/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | Yes | 35.6¢ | 48¢ | +$34 | $100 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? | Yes | 34.0¢ | 37¢ | +$5 | $68 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 37.0¢ | 36¢ | $-1 | $73 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | No | 50.9¢ | 11¢ | $-78 | $100 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | Yes | 39.6¢ | 43¢ | +$6 | $75 | 30/04/2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 40.2¢ | 42¢ | +$2 | $48 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026? | No | 54.0¢ | 42¢ | $-11 | $49 | 30/04/2026 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | No | 56.0¢ | 55¢ | $-1 | $49 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? | No | 62.5¢ | 48¢ | $-8 | $34 | 30/04/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | Yes | 68.6¢ | 100¢ | +$45 | $99 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? | No | 71.3¢ | 0¢ | $-99 | $99 | 30/04/2026 |
| Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? | No | 62.0¢ | 0¢ | $-99 | $99 | 30/04/2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 40.0¢ | 52¢ | +$15 | $49 | 31/05/2026 |
| Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? | No | 72.0¢ | 72¢ | +$0 | $57 | 31/05/2026 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | No | 75.0¢ | 80¢ | +$1 | $25 | 31/05/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Yes | 36.9¢ | 66¢ | +$52 | $66 | 30/06/2026 |
| Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? | No | 66.3¢ | 83¢ | +$25 | $100 | 30/06/2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 40.0¢ | 64¢ | +$29 | $49 | 30/06/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | No | 44.0¢ | 32¢ | $-6 | $24 | 30/06/2026 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? | No | 58.1¢ | 72¢ | +$6 | $25 | 30/06/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | No | 74.8¢ | 84¢ | +$3 | $25 | 30/06/2026 |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 48.0¢ | 100¢ | +$108 | $100 | 30/06/2026 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 39.5¢ | 51¢ | +$30 | $100 | 31/12/2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | 47.9¢ | 70¢ | +$47 | $99 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 58.0¢ | 69¢ | +$20 | $98 | 31/12/2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | Yes | 56.6¢ | 62¢ | +$9 | $91 | 31/12/2026 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 63.5¢ | 70¢ | +$11 | $99 | 31/12/2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | No | 47.9¢ | 26¢ | $-33 | $74 | 31/12/2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 77.0¢ | 81¢ | +$3 | $50 | 31/12/2026 |